4 ms·

> From what we know, 90% of the population already could already have it. Any source on this?

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
Izkata 6y ago
A month and a half ago New York may have already been at 20%: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-anti...
- marvin 6y ago
  Okay. So let's press a magic button to make every place in the whole world hit equally hard as NYC, one of the worst-hit cities in the world, with all the death and suffering that entails. Then repeat the process four times. Now we're at 80%, still short of GP's claim. GP knows that their argument is wrong, and is deliberately lying.
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    The official testing result is 3.6% positive rate in the SF Bay Area, but we have so many flights from China weekly that it could easily be 50% or more. (fairly unique region)
    - m_mueller 6y ago
      All available data indicates that China is by now among the safer countries for travel in regards to COVID19.
      - redis_mlc 6y ago
        Not from Dec. to March.
    - namelosw 6y ago
      I doubt it, since provinces other than Hubei province had significantly lower cases. It is a huge country and it was "so many flights" from China, instead of "so many flights" from Hubei province. If it's hard to wrap this try swap China and the US.
      - redis_mlc 6y ago
        Actually you're totally wrong for several reasons, not the least of which is your symmetric handling of travel: - there are direct flights from Wuhan (and Shanghai, #8 in the world) to SFO (Trump stopped the Chinese flights Jan. 31, but Chinese travellers were detouring through Africa and Europe in Feb.) - but local travel outside Wuhan was restricted (latest Jan. 23, Disneyworld Shanghai was closed Jan. 24) - the Cambridge and Washington corona models are overly pessimistic and start late - the first Wuhan hospitalization was Dec. 1, and with the direct flights to SFO, corona was in the US in mid-Dec. What's hard for you and other HNers to wrap your head around is that all the reported information is completely wrong. The best source I've seen so far is this: The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models | The Coronavirus and Public Policy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG2vdyfLv7U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG2vdyfLv7U Dr. Victor Davis Hanson also has about 3 interviews that add to that. Search Youtube for "covid-19 victor davis hanson" (We independently came to the identical analysis of corona for California, literally word-for-word, which is the opposite of the sensationalist news media. The Santa Clara hospital dashboard confirms this, being flat for months.)

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

A month and a half ago New York may have already been at 20%: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-anti...

marvin 6y ago
Okay. So let's press a magic button to make every place in the whole world hit equally hard as NYC, one of the worst-hit cities in the world, with all the death and suffering that entails. Then repeat the process four times. Now we're at 80%, still short of GP's claim. GP knows that their argument is wrong, and is deliberately lying.
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  The official testing result is 3.6% positive rate in the SF Bay Area, but we have so many flights from China weekly that it could easily be 50% or more. (fairly unique region)
  - m_mueller 6y ago
    All available data indicates that China is by now among the safer countries for travel in regards to COVID19.
    - redis_mlc 6y ago
      Not from Dec. to March.
  - namelosw 6y ago
    I doubt it, since provinces other than Hubei province had significantly lower cases. It is a huge country and it was "so many flights" from China, instead of "so many flights" from Hubei province. If it's hard to wrap this try swap China and the US.
    - redis_mlc 6y ago
      Actually you're totally wrong for several reasons, not the least of which is your symmetric handling of travel: - there are direct flights from Wuhan (and Shanghai, #8 in the world) to SFO (Trump stopped the Chinese flights Jan. 31, but Chinese travellers were detouring through Africa and Europe in Feb.) - but local travel outside Wuhan was restricted (latest Jan. 23, Disneyworld Shanghai was closed Jan. 24) - the Cambridge and Washington corona models are overly pessimistic and start late - the first Wuhan hospitalization was Dec. 1, and with the direct flights to SFO, corona was in the US in mid-Dec. What's hard for you and other HNers to wrap your head around is that all the reported information is completely wrong. The best source I've seen so far is this: The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models | The Coronavirus and Public Policy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG2vdyfLv7U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG2vdyfLv7U Dr. Victor Davis Hanson also has about 3 interviews that add to that. Search Youtube for "covid-19 victor davis hanson" (We independently came to the identical analysis of corona for California, literally word-for-word, which is the opposite of the sensationalist news media. The Santa Clara hospital dashboard confirms this, being flat for months.)