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The whole market smells suspect. It’s an orgy of Fed induced moral hazard where something so misleading could rally the market which had already recovered to ne
by xoxoy 6y ago
The whole market smells suspect. It’s an orgy of Fed induced moral hazard where something so misleading could rally the market which had already recovered to near all time highs.
I suspect a lot of the surprise had to do with businesses recalling furloughed workers to essentially do nothing to quality for PPP loan forgiveness.
So in reality this likely is just showing PPP working as intended. The bigger question is if demand is still depressed on reopening if these companies will just have to lay off the employees anyway once the loan is forgiven.
the other thing is the initial wave of laid off workers was heavily in service and healthcare which were most impacted by lockdowns, so makes sense those would return on reopening. Bigger question is if there will be a second wave of layoffs for white collar workers due to persistently depressed demand even on reopening.
- bredren 6y agoI know for a fact this is occurring. Employers need employees to book at least X hours to get the loan/grant. But there isn’t nearly that amount of work needed. So they are asking employees to report the high numbers anyway. This effectively shifted unemployment insurance benefits to business benefits that are still sponsoring (at least in part) zero utility. It’s a great smokescreen. And fwiw, it is probably a better Posture to have workers “ready to go” should there be something for them to do. But make no mistake this is not business as usual. It is more like a shell game for stats and monetary distribution.
- Fjolsvith 6y agoIf they're baking the numbers now, I wonder how far in the past they've been fudged?
- h0p3 6y agoI appreciate the way you think. If you are ever interested in having a penpal, hit me up.
- nojito 6y agoHealthcare has been stable/hiring through the shutdown. HCA for example has pledged to not lay off anyone.