4 ms·

I feel like Europe would definitely be involved in a US-Russian conflict. I'm having trouble coming up with a scenario in which the US and Russia go to war that

I feel like Europe would definitely be involved in a US-Russian conflict. I'm having trouble coming up with a scenario in which the US and Russia go to war that doesn't start out of some conflict in eastern Europe, or maybe Turkey.

LatteLazy 6y ago
Let me play devil's advocate: * an unpopular, nationalist president like Trump starts it * Russia picks up the phone and makes clear it has no intent to attack anywhere in the EU as long as it doesn't get attacked. It offers assurances To Turkey and Eastern Europe and stands down or withdraws troops etc near those regions. * National leaders (especially say Germany, Italy, Spain) realise their involvement would add nothing and doom all their major cities to annihilation. Also, with the US/Russia gone as powers they will "inherit the earth". If you were Chancellor of Germany would you really say "fuck it, its worth 50m+ civilian casualties to uphold this point of principle"?
- openasocket 6y ago
  Yeah, in such a situation I'd agree that Europe would likely remain neutral, assuming there was essentially no provocation. But I would consider that extremely unlikely, for a variety of reasons. Here's what I would consider a more likely road to global war: * Russia exerts increased influence on Belarus, turning it into a defacto puppet state * Russia initiates another grey zone conflict, this time in Eastern Poland, in an attempt to improve the lines of communication between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia * While some nations like the UK urge for a diplomatic solution, Poland acts aggressively, striking targets in Belarus to cut off foreign fighters * Russia denounces Polish aggression and builds up forces in Belarus and Kaliningrad, during which Poland shoots down a Russian MiG that strayed into Polish airspace * Increased Russian presence leads to incidents along the border. Lithuania begins mobilization, and the other Baltic states soon after * In retaliation for the MiG shot down, Russia shoots down what it thinks is a Polish F-16, but it actually is Belgian, deployed as a part of the Baltic Air Policing * NATO forces reinforce Poland and Lithuania, begin to limited airstrikes and special forces raids on Belarussian targets. * Belarus declares war but Russia officially doesn't, but keeps its troops forward deployed in the country * NATO forces begin an invasion plan, routing Belarussian forces. Russian troops remain where they are * Russia enters the war, ostensibly defending their troops stationed abroad. Begins a strike of a variety of strategic targets throughout Europe using ballistic and cruise missiles * And so on...

LatteLazy 6y ago

Let me play devil's advocate: * an unpopular, nationalist president like Trump starts it * Russia picks up the phone and makes clear it has no intent to attack anywhere in the EU as long as it doesn't get attacked. It offers assurances To Turkey and Eastern Europe and stands down or withdraws troops etc near those regions. * National leaders (especially say Germany, Italy, Spain) realise their involvement would add nothing and doom all their major cities to annihilation. Also, with the US/Russia gone as powers they will "inherit the earth". If you were Chancellor of Germany would you really say "fuck it, its worth 50m+ civilian casualties to uphold this point of principle"?

openasocket 6y ago
Yeah, in such a situation I'd agree that Europe would likely remain neutral, assuming there was essentially no provocation. But I would consider that extremely unlikely, for a variety of reasons. Here's what I would consider a more likely road to global war: * Russia exerts increased influence on Belarus, turning it into a defacto puppet state * Russia initiates another grey zone conflict, this time in Eastern Poland, in an attempt to improve the lines of communication between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia * While some nations like the UK urge for a diplomatic solution, Poland acts aggressively, striking targets in Belarus to cut off foreign fighters * Russia denounces Polish aggression and builds up forces in Belarus and Kaliningrad, during which Poland shoots down a Russian MiG that strayed into Polish airspace * Increased Russian presence leads to incidents along the border. Lithuania begins mobilization, and the other Baltic states soon after * In retaliation for the MiG shot down, Russia shoots down what it thinks is a Polish F-16, but it actually is Belgian, deployed as a part of the Baltic Air Policing * NATO forces reinforce Poland and Lithuania, begin to limited airstrikes and special forces raids on Belarussian targets. * Belarus declares war but Russia officially doesn't, but keeps its troops forward deployed in the country * NATO forces begin an invasion plan, routing Belarussian forces. Russian troops remain where they are * Russia enters the war, ostensibly defending their troops stationed abroad. Begins a strike of a variety of strategic targets throughout Europe using ballistic and cruise missiles * And so on...