Looks like he's been writing for a while, including sticking his neck out quantitatively in a 2017 blog post: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/quantitative-

Looks like he's been writing for a while, including sticking his neck out quantitatively in a 2017 blog post: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/quantitative-prediction-political-violence-2020s/ http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/quantitative-prediction... The linked short interview was probably prompted by his 2012 paper: > Extending the sequence of 1870, 1920, and 1970 forward suggests that the next instability peak shouldoccur in the United States around 2020. This is a simple projection, rather than a scientific prediction (which requires an understanding of mechanisms bringing about outbreaks of political violence; see Turchin, 2006a). The analysis of structural causes of instability waves is beyond the scope of this article and will be pursued elsewhere(Turchin, forthcoming) http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf (And yes, for the conspiracy theorists, you can search the DOI number to confirm this really was published in 2012.)