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Yeah, this is my thinking too. The Fed is going to continue pumping money into the markets to prop up prices. But they can't magically fix systemic issues wit
by mywittyname 6y ago
Yeah, this is my thinking too. The Fed is going to continue pumping money into the markets to prop up prices. But they can't magically fix systemic issues within the economy itself. Providing liquidity (read, buying high-risk assets at a premium so institutional investors don't lose their asses) only works when investors are being forced to sell well-functioning assets at a discount due to a lack of buyers in the market (which is not the case currently).
It's easy to prop up the stock price of a business, but if that company is still operating in a harsh economic environment, they still might need to cut staff and production, or could even go out of business.
At this point, I really have no idea how bad things really are for businesses. Our clients seems cautiously optimistic: most are spending money; some have budgets allocated for projects, but are holding off pulling the trigger for a few months; and a few have cancelled projects. The nation is also seeing layoffs in non-retail sectors, but again, it's hard to say if this is because companies are using COVID as cover for something they've been wanting to do, or if this is the start of the downward spiral.
My out-of-my-ass prediction is we see another, more substantial market retraction in September-October which has more staying power. And I don't think the cause will be COVID-related (but that's what the media will report), but instead will be the result of a collapse in supply chains across multiple industries as China-US relations further deteriorate, hampering the ability for manufacturing companies to buy raw materials combined with continuing bankruptcies in the agricultural sector.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan seems likely as well, especially given the domestic strife in the US that has leaders calling for military show-of-force. Weak US military morale / power struggles within the military, combined with a focus of attention inward should provide an opportunity for the Chinese to act unopposed.