3 ms·

I think there are logical reasons to predict this but it seems flippant if they're not presented. Are you basing this on optimism toward treatment/vaccine?

sct202 6y ago
He has a blog post in his bio of his reasons but most of it is copypasta that I've seen elsewhere with no numbers but a lot of words around every theory.
- guscost 6y ago
  Most of my claims are speculation, and can only be proven or disproven by the passage of time. The point is that I'm on record making (somewhat poetically non-scientific) predictions. Will you check back in a year? I'm not happy about the "copypasta" insult though. None of my writing is plagiarized, arguments that are not original to me are called out, and I spent a lot of time and effort tracking down the soundest supporting references I could find.
  - koheripbal 6y ago
    Even speculation should be based on some evidence and/or logic. Pure speculation, even when proven by time, is worthless.
    - guscost 6y ago
      Non-scientific does not mean unfounded. There are plenty of citations provided (from published journal articles and preprints wherever possible) to support my speculation. They're hyperlinks, which is a bit tongue-in-cheek as an editorial choice. > Pure speculation, even when proven by time, is worthless. I can't agree. This essentially argues that all intuition is worthless unless it can be explained. Maybe true in a structured debate, but surely not in life.
guscost 6y ago
The crux of the argument is: 1. Respiratory viruses typically evolve to become attenuated after jumping between species, and this new one will move to the "sweet spot" where all other human coronaviruses proliferate, if it becomes endemic. 2. 40-60% of people may have some level of pre-existing immunity due to previous exposure to other cold coronaviruses. This finding is coming up again and again in microbiology preprints, and it fits most observations. Check my bio for the full essay, which actually turns into a long rant about the state of science in general.
- mrfusion 6y ago
  Actually There may already be evidence of 1. happening https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid-19-has-become-less-prevalent-and-less-severe.html https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid...
  - guscost 6y ago
    See also: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114546v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114546v...

sct202 6y ago

He has a blog post in his bio of his reasons but most of it is copypasta that I've seen elsewhere with no numbers but a lot of words around every theory.

guscost 6y ago
Most of my claims are speculation, and can only be proven or disproven by the passage of time. The point is that I'm on record making (somewhat poetically non-scientific) predictions. Will you check back in a year? I'm not happy about the "copypasta" insult though. None of my writing is plagiarized, arguments that are not original to me are called out, and I spent a lot of time and effort tracking down the soundest supporting references I could find.
- koheripbal 6y ago
  Even speculation should be based on some evidence and/or logic. Pure speculation, even when proven by time, is worthless.
  - guscost 6y ago
    Non-scientific does not mean unfounded. There are plenty of citations provided (from published journal articles and preprints wherever possible) to support my speculation. They're hyperlinks, which is a bit tongue-in-cheek as an editorial choice. > Pure speculation, even when proven by time, is worthless. I can't agree. This essentially argues that all intuition is worthless unless it can be explained. Maybe true in a structured debate, but surely not in life.

guscost 6y ago

The crux of the argument is: 1. Respiratory viruses typically evolve to become attenuated after jumping between species, and this new one will move to the "sweet spot" where all other human coronaviruses proliferate, if it becomes endemic. 2. 40-60% of people may have some level of pre-existing immunity due to previous exposure to other cold coronaviruses. This finding is coming up again and again in microbiology preprints, and it fits most observations. Check my bio for the full essay, which actually turns into a long rant about the state of science in general.

mrfusion 6y ago
Actually There may already be evidence of 1. happening https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid-19-has-become-less-prevalent-and-less-severe.html https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid...
- guscost 6y ago
  See also: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114546v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114546v...