I guess the question here is long-lasting vs short-term impacts. Most of the economic forecasting models have to be using historically-fit models. Which is to

I guess the question here is long-lasting vs short-term impacts. Most of the economic forecasting models have to be using historically-fit models. Which is to say, they're giving predictions of what would happen if all of their data sources had experienced these changes in normal economic times. But it's a bit of an open question as to what happens if we artificially demand substantial economic activity stop on a dime (via lockdown). My gut says that we're going to see mitigated impact, for the simple reason that customers are a herd, and move gradually. They're going to tend to want to behave as they did before the lockdown (see: resistance to masks and other changes!) as long as they didn't lose their jobs. Which is turn should restart the economy fairly solidly. What's required for doomsday scenarios would be for people to start behaving as though a depression were imminent. That is to say: limiting spending, hoarding cash, withdrawing money from banks, businesses putting off capital purchases. Of those, the last is the only thing I'm aware of that's been happening. So we'll be in risky-but-fine land for awhile.