4 ms·

IMO you are oversimplifying things... but even with your analogy, the Fed is predicting a more dire future: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/cqer/re

• LegitShady 6y ago
  ...that document days it's not an official forecast just data model numbers without any adjustments
• ethbro 6y ago
  "GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model."