6 ms·

Just to recommit to my prediction, there will be no second peak of the virus until the winter (in the northern hemisphere), and even then it will do about as mu

Just to recommit to my prediction, there will be no second peak of the virus until the winter (in the northern hemisphere), and even then it will do about as much damage as the regular cold.

nkozyra 6y ago
I think there are logical reasons to predict this but it seems flippant if they're not presented. Are you basing this on optimism toward treatment/vaccine?
- sct202 6y ago
  He has a blog post in his bio of his reasons but most of it is copypasta that I've seen elsewhere with no numbers but a lot of words around every theory.
  - guscost 6y ago
    Most of my claims are speculation, and can only be proven or disproven by the passage of time. The point is that I'm on record making (somewhat poetically non-scientific) predictions. Will you check back in a year? I'm not happy about the "copypasta" insult though. None of my writing is plagiarized, arguments that are not original to me are called out, and I spent a lot of time and effort tracking down the soundest supporting references I could find.
    - koheripbal 6y ago
      Even speculation should be based on some evidence and/or logic. Pure speculation, even when proven by time, is worthless.
      - guscost 6y ago
        Non-scientific does not mean unfounded. There are plenty of citations provided (from published journal articles and preprints wherever possible) to support my speculation. They're hyperlinks, which is a bit tongue-in-cheek as an editorial choice. > Pure speculation, even when proven by time, is worthless. I can't agree. This essentially argues that all intuition is worthless unless it can be explained. Maybe true in a structured debate, but surely not in life.
- guscost 6y ago
  The crux of the argument is: 1. Respiratory viruses typically evolve to become attenuated after jumping between species, and this new one will move to the "sweet spot" where all other human coronaviruses proliferate, if it becomes endemic. 2. 40-60% of people may have some level of pre-existing immunity due to previous exposure to other cold coronaviruses. This finding is coming up again and again in microbiology preprints, and it fits most observations. Check my bio for the full essay, which actually turns into a long rant about the state of science in general.
  - mrfusion 6y ago
    Actually There may already be evidence of 1. happening https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid-19-has-become-less-prevalent-and-less-severe.html https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid...
    - guscost 6y ago
      See also: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114546v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114546v...
hn_check 6y ago
Why would you make such a prediction, must less post it as if it is informative? From your bio you have zero expertise in this area (beyond, I suppose, that you follow some narratives on Twitter). Your predictions are literally worthless noise.
- guscost 6y ago
  > From your bio you have zero expertise in this area (beyond, I suppose, that you follow some narratives on Twitter). Your predictions are literally worthless noise. Mmmm, this hate-reply has the sweet aroma of success.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - dang 6y ago
    Please don't respond to a bad comment by breaking the site guidelines yourself. That just makes this place even worse. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- dang 6y ago
  This comment crosses into personal attack and name-calling. Please don't do those things: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. Hacker News is a conversation place, an internet watercooler. People want and need to have conversation on things they aren't experts on. Users certainly don't have to be experts to post here—that would be an entirely different kind of forum.
  - hn_check 6y ago
    It is neither a personal attack or name calling.
    - dang 6y ago
      I get that these points can seem kind of subtle or even vacuous, but it's necessary to understand that they're a thousand times more obvious to the receiver. "literally worthless noise" is calling names in the sense that the HN guidelines use the term: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. "From your bio you have zero expertise in this area" is crossing into using someone's personal details as ammunition in an argument. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=by%3Adang%20%22personal%20details%22%20&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... "beyond, I suppose, that you follow some narratives on Twitter" is a nasty personal swipe. Please don't do that kind of thing on HN. If you review the site guidelines you'll notice that the intended spirit is quite different.
mnm1 6y ago
You can't have a second peak when the first one never ended.

Just to recommit to my prediction, there will be no second peak of the virus until the winter (in the northern hemisphere), and even then it will do about as much damage as the regular cold.

nkozyra 6y ago

I think there are logical reasons to predict this but it seems flippant if they're not presented. Are you basing this on optimism toward treatment/vaccine?

sct202 6y ago
He has a blog post in his bio of his reasons but most of it is copypasta that I've seen elsewhere with no numbers but a lot of words around every theory.
- guscost 6y ago
  Most of my claims are speculation, and can only be proven or disproven by the passage of time. The point is that I'm on record making (somewhat poetically non-scientific) predictions. Will you check back in a year? I'm not happy about the "copypasta" insult though. None of my writing is plagiarized, arguments that are not original to me are called out, and I spent a lot of time and effort tracking down the soundest supporting references I could find.
  - koheripbal 6y ago
    Even speculation should be based on some evidence and/or logic. Pure speculation, even when proven by time, is worthless.
    - guscost 6y ago
      Non-scientific does not mean unfounded. There are plenty of citations provided (from published journal articles and preprints wherever possible) to support my speculation. They're hyperlinks, which is a bit tongue-in-cheek as an editorial choice. > Pure speculation, even when proven by time, is worthless. I can't agree. This essentially argues that all intuition is worthless unless it can be explained. Maybe true in a structured debate, but surely not in life.
guscost 6y ago
The crux of the argument is: 1. Respiratory viruses typically evolve to become attenuated after jumping between species, and this new one will move to the "sweet spot" where all other human coronaviruses proliferate, if it becomes endemic. 2. 40-60% of people may have some level of pre-existing immunity due to previous exposure to other cold coronaviruses. This finding is coming up again and again in microbiology preprints, and it fits most observations. Check my bio for the full essay, which actually turns into a long rant about the state of science in general.
- mrfusion 6y ago
  Actually There may already be evidence of 1. happening https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid-19-has-become-less-prevalent-and-less-severe.html https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid...
  - guscost 6y ago
    See also: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114546v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114546v...

hn_check 6y ago

Why would you make such a prediction, must less post it as if it is informative? From your bio you have zero expertise in this area (beyond, I suppose, that you follow some narratives on Twitter). Your predictions are literally worthless noise.

guscost 6y ago
> From your bio you have zero expertise in this area (beyond, I suppose, that you follow some narratives on Twitter). Your predictions are literally worthless noise. Mmmm, this hate-reply has the sweet aroma of success.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- dang 6y ago
  Please don't respond to a bad comment by breaking the site guidelines yourself. That just makes this place even worse. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
dang 6y ago
This comment crosses into personal attack and name-calling. Please don't do those things: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. Hacker News is a conversation place, an internet watercooler. People want and need to have conversation on things they aren't experts on. Users certainly don't have to be experts to post here—that would be an entirely different kind of forum.
- hn_check 6y ago
  It is neither a personal attack or name calling.
  - dang 6y ago
    I get that these points can seem kind of subtle or even vacuous, but it's necessary to understand that they're a thousand times more obvious to the receiver. "literally worthless noise" is calling names in the sense that the HN guidelines use the term: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. "From your bio you have zero expertise in this area" is crossing into using someone's personal details as ammunition in an argument. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=by%3Adang%20%22personal%20details%22%20&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... "beyond, I suppose, that you follow some narratives on Twitter" is a nasty personal swipe. Please don't do that kind of thing on HN. If you review the site guidelines you'll notice that the intended spirit is quite different.

mnm1 6y ago

You can't have a second peak when the first one never ended.