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I don't know, I went from being an extreme pessimist to somewhat of an optimist around this pandemic's effect on the economy. One of the first positive points i

I don't know, I went from being an extreme pessimist to somewhat of an optimist around this pandemic's effect on the economy. One of the first positive points is the covid-19 death rate, during Feb/March it was quoted as being 4-6% which was terrifying. Very quietly the CDC has mentioned it now thinks it is around (0.8% to 0.26%)[1] (it is impossible to know the exact number but given S. Korea's numbers this seems reasonable). There are talks of a vaccine that could arrive around the September/October 2020 time frame by astrazeneca (provided results of testing are positive)[2]. Lastly, a treatment has been found in remedivsar [3] (although not extremely effective it is found to have some efficacy). Once a vaccine arrives expect a wave of shopping/travel the likes of the world has never seen being a majority of the people have been locked down for almost a year which would revive a frozen travel industry. What is still concerning is small mom-pop businesses closing and never reopening, Just remember 6 trillion was created out of thin air to alleviate the effects of this pandemic in the US [4] [1] - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... [2] - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/astrazeneca-is-set-to-make-two-billion-doses-of-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/astrazeneca-is-set-to-make-t... [3] - https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/01/gileads-remdesivir-shows-some-benefit-in-patients-with-moderate-covid-19-new-data-show/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/01/gileads-remdesivir-shows... [4] - https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-us-has-thrown-more-than-dollar6-trillion-at-the-coronavirus-crisis-that-number-could-grow/ar-BB12G4S0 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-us-has-thrown-mo...

matthewdgreen 6y ago
> Very quietly the CDC has mentioned it now thinks it is around (0.8% to 0.26%)[1] The CDC says CFR -- deaths out of cases that involve symptoms -- could be as low as 0.26% but this is bonkers. New York City has seen 16,992 deaths plus 4,760 probable. The total city population was 8,336,817 as of last July. So if we assume every single man, woman and child in NYC was infected and symptomatic, we get a death rate of 0.204% using only confirmed deaths, and 0.26% by adding in the probable cases. (Note that this doesn't include excess mortality, which could add thousands of deaths.) Of course, antibody tests last I checked were only at about 20% for NYC, and presumably many of those people were asymptomatic. So the rate is potentially much, much higher than that. But even under ridiculously "optimistic" assumptions, the CDC's lower bounds are crazy. Edit: calculators are hard, fixed a bogus number.

matthewdgreen 6y ago

> Very quietly the CDC has mentioned it now thinks it is around (0.8% to 0.26%)[1] The CDC says CFR -- deaths out of cases that involve symptoms -- could be as low as 0.26% but this is bonkers. New York City has seen 16,992 deaths plus 4,760 probable. The total city population was 8,336,817 as of last July. So if we assume every single man, woman and child in NYC was infected and symptomatic, we get a death rate of 0.204% using only confirmed deaths, and 0.26% by adding in the probable cases. (Note that this doesn't include excess mortality, which could add thousands of deaths.) Of course, antibody tests last I checked were only at about 20% for NYC, and presumably many of those people were asymptomatic. So the rate is potentially much, much higher than that. But even under ridiculously "optimistic" assumptions, the CDC's lower bounds are crazy. Edit: calculators are hard, fixed a bogus number.