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> Time in the market beats timing the market. This has merits in a bull market regime. However, we may not in a bull market: history suggests that we will have

> Time in the market beats timing the market. This has merits in a bull market regime. However, we may not in a bull market: history suggests that we will have a deeper bottom within 3 - 12 months. So if you buy stock now, when the market is within 10% of it's peak, and you have to wait for two years for the market to recover to that peak, there's plenty of time for someone to wait for the trough and substantially outperform you. Hopefully you are at least collecting dividends, but 2% is a small solace for spending 30% more than you would need if you were patient for a few months.

agilebyte 6y ago
Time in the market applies to all the market, there's no qualifier for just a bull market - that would be timing the market. Vast majority of people cannot time the market. Bear Markets: This Time is Different (Every Time) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh9Gn58r9Fw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh9Gn58r9Fw
devalgo 6y ago
IF you're so confident then why don't you plug your life savings into shorting the market? You'll make millions. There's been countless examples of projecting returns for an investor who tries to time the market and one who keeps buying and almost universally the timer loses.
- leetcrew 6y ago
  being pretty sure that the market will crash at some point in the next year isn't really actionable information for an investor. a temporary rally at any point could trigger a devastating margin call. you could just sell all your long positions and buy back in whenever you think the market is at its lowest point, but you're probably not gonna make millions this way. FWIW, I haven't sold anything, but I haven't bought any shares either since the beginning of the crisis. I would be wealthier today if I had kept buying on my normal schedule.
IAmGraydon 6y ago
History suggests that? The only time in modern history that this has happened (1918), the stock market never had the slightest reaction. It just carried on its merry way...with 50 million dead.

agilebyte 6y ago

Time in the market applies to all the market, there's no qualifier for just a bull market - that would be timing the market. Vast majority of people cannot time the market. Bear Markets: This Time is Different (Every Time) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh9Gn58r9Fw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh9Gn58r9Fw

devalgo 6y ago

IF you're so confident then why don't you plug your life savings into shorting the market? You'll make millions. There's been countless examples of projecting returns for an investor who tries to time the market and one who keeps buying and almost universally the timer loses.

leetcrew 6y ago
being pretty sure that the market will crash at some point in the next year isn't really actionable information for an investor. a temporary rally at any point could trigger a devastating margin call. you could just sell all your long positions and buy back in whenever you think the market is at its lowest point, but you're probably not gonna make millions this way. FWIW, I haven't sold anything, but I haven't bought any shares either since the beginning of the crisis. I would be wealthier today if I had kept buying on my normal schedule.

IAmGraydon 6y ago

History suggests that? The only time in modern history that this has happened (1918), the stock market never had the slightest reaction. It just carried on its merry way...with 50 million dead.