There are a lot of parameters. Assuming the models are good, the inputs makes all the difference and the input numbers have been largely off at least till rece

There are a lot of parameters. Assuming the models are good, the inputs makes all the difference and the input numbers have been largely off at least till recently. I would be interested to see how the values change with a specific parameter movement. It would be also good to see a montecarlo simulation after defining a realistic distribution of the parameters to find how the numbers of infected and death change. I toyed with a simple (probably semplistic model) early on, I was finding that because of the exponential nature of the relations, small changes were producing huge changes in the output. That was telling me that unless we could get more realistic data we could go from having a number of death smaller than the actual number given for the flu to numbers more than 1-2 orders of magnitude larger...