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A lot of experience has not translated well to their consumer offerings which have not really changed since the rushed the Bolt as a 2017 model. The EUV variant

A lot of experience has not translated well to their consumer offerings which have not really changed since the rushed the Bolt as a 2017 model. The EUV variant instead of advancing the technology of the Bolt is little more than a stretched variant with the same limited charging. Yes they have experience but GM is operating from the concept of earning sufficient ZEV credits only. The dropped PHEV (Volt) right prior to the rest of the industry going that direction all because it wasn't worth the cost to ZEV points. What I am interested in is seeing how invested Ford is, if the Mach E sales take off will they make enough to meet the need to artificially constrain production to just what they need to sale. The real danger to EV transportation is the big manufacturers trying to keep maximum ranges below three hundred miles. Even luxury makers are barely going there with future products. By keeping ranges in that lower two hundred mile area they can continue to exploit range anxiety issues and consign EVs to local transportation only thereby not threatening their cash cows.

WorldMaker 6y ago
> The dropped PHEV (Volt) right prior to the rest of the industry going that direction all because it wasn't worth the cost to ZEV points. GM also stated that PHEV was a compromise/transition technology and BEVs have hit certain benchmarks (and so too have charging infrastructure) that the focus should be on BEVs now. (As a 2012 Volt owner, I'm inclined to agree as one anecdotal owner. PHEV made a lot of sense in 2012, but the compromises needed in PHEV increasingly make less sense in 2020 and I doubt my next car will be anything but a full BEV.) > What I am interested in is seeing how invested Ford is, if the Mach E sales take off will they make enough to meet the need to artificially constrain production to just what they need to sale. Ford is playing catch up no matter what. The only hope the Mach E has to working well is how much Ford is paying to external collaborators for outside tech. GM has pre-announced something like a half-dozen to a dozen new BEV models will be announced in the next year or so and heavily invested in BEV only facilities. Ford is still in the dipping the toes in the water stage of BEV production. > The real danger to EV transportation is the big manufacturers trying to keep maximum ranges below three hundred miles. The real danger to EV transportation is thinking ~250 miles on a charge is "local transportation only". I understand Americans have a bloated sense of the miles they need to travel regularly, but range anxiety is overblown and 300 miles/charge is no more useful a magic number than 200 miles/charge in assuaging range anxiety. (Some Europeans were already happy with ~100 mile/charge Nissan Leafs for long distance continental travel half a decade ago.)
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  The problem with BEV vehicles is we can’t make enough batteries. Right now we could probably make four or five times as many PHEVs which would have a bigger impact.
  - WorldMaker 6y ago
    In the US, battery production doesn't seem to be the bottleneck. LG Chem and Panasonic battery plants in the US are ramping up much faster than GM/Ford can build cars.
  - kjksf 6y ago
    That's not how markets work and it's only a factor because car makers (other than Tesla) made it so. If people wanted PHEV in great numbers, the car makers would make 5x more PHEVs. What the market is telling us is that people would rather buy a fully EV from Tesla (and a few others) than a PHEV. That's why sales of Tesla reached 370k last year when sales of Volt peaked at 24k in 2016. Volt won't sell 100k a year even if GM made that many. If Ford and GM started building battery gigafactories in 2016, like Tesla, then they too would have 35+ GWh battery capacity today, enough for 300k+ cars per year. Today's battery shortages are a direct result of lack of investment 5 years ago. And Ford and GM will resolve them 5 years from now, if they start investing today. If they don't start investing today, Tesla and Volkswagen will be more than happy to take that marketshare.
- ajford 6y ago
  As an American and a Texan, range bloat can definitely be a thing, but urban densities vary wildly in the US. My daily commute is on average ~30 miles round trip. But if I add a stop or two, that can quickly slew to 50-60 miles if I have to go downtown. And that's living relatively close to city center (~8mi outside downtown). I had a Nissan Leaf and the range anxiety was real. I actually couldn't commute to downtown for work, and settled on taking my Leaf to a nearby Park & Ride and rode commuter bus line the rest of the way. My wife drives a 2017 Volt now, and it's night & day compared to the Leaf. I'm personally ok with the trade-off of carrying a redundant power source for the convenience of never worrying about range again. Aside from a couple of months where we had an issue with our Level 2 EVSE, we primarily use the battery on it. But it is also our road-trip car, given that our other vehicle is getting towards the realm of unreliable for long-distance driving. While I wouldn't consider 200mi "local only", I would venture that anything under 100mi is, until destination charging is far more common. At least in the USA (outside the East & perhaps West coasts). Looking at multiple public charging maps, I can't get between Austin & San Antonio Texas without at least 100mi of range, and that's cutting it close. The scale difference between USA & European countries is rather large, and most people can easily lose sight of that and make statements like 100mi is easily long-distance for Europeans, when most Americans would consider 100mi to be local. I've known people who's daily commute approaches that.
fomine3 6y ago
Longer ranges needs more battery so it makes cars really bigger and heavier but it's not preferred on some countries outside US.

WorldMaker 6y ago

> The dropped PHEV (Volt) right prior to the rest of the industry going that direction all because it wasn't worth the cost to ZEV points. GM also stated that PHEV was a compromise/transition technology and BEVs have hit certain benchmarks (and so too have charging infrastructure) that the focus should be on BEVs now. (As a 2012 Volt owner, I'm inclined to agree as one anecdotal owner. PHEV made a lot of sense in 2012, but the compromises needed in PHEV increasingly make less sense in 2020 and I doubt my next car will be anything but a full BEV.) > What I am interested in is seeing how invested Ford is, if the Mach E sales take off will they make enough to meet the need to artificially constrain production to just what they need to sale. Ford is playing catch up no matter what. The only hope the Mach E has to working well is how much Ford is paying to external collaborators for outside tech. GM has pre-announced something like a half-dozen to a dozen new BEV models will be announced in the next year or so and heavily invested in BEV only facilities. Ford is still in the dipping the toes in the water stage of BEV production. > The real danger to EV transportation is the big manufacturers trying to keep maximum ranges below three hundred miles. The real danger to EV transportation is thinking ~250 miles on a charge is "local transportation only". I understand Americans have a bloated sense of the miles they need to travel regularly, but range anxiety is overblown and 300 miles/charge is no more useful a magic number than 200 miles/charge in assuaging range anxiety. (Some Europeans were already happy with ~100 mile/charge Nissan Leafs for long distance continental travel half a decade ago.)

tonyedgecombe 6y ago
The problem with BEV vehicles is we can’t make enough batteries. Right now we could probably make four or five times as many PHEVs which would have a bigger impact.
- WorldMaker 6y ago
  In the US, battery production doesn't seem to be the bottleneck. LG Chem and Panasonic battery plants in the US are ramping up much faster than GM/Ford can build cars.
- kjksf 6y ago
  That's not how markets work and it's only a factor because car makers (other than Tesla) made it so. If people wanted PHEV in great numbers, the car makers would make 5x more PHEVs. What the market is telling us is that people would rather buy a fully EV from Tesla (and a few others) than a PHEV. That's why sales of Tesla reached 370k last year when sales of Volt peaked at 24k in 2016. Volt won't sell 100k a year even if GM made that many. If Ford and GM started building battery gigafactories in 2016, like Tesla, then they too would have 35+ GWh battery capacity today, enough for 300k+ cars per year. Today's battery shortages are a direct result of lack of investment 5 years ago. And Ford and GM will resolve them 5 years from now, if they start investing today. If they don't start investing today, Tesla and Volkswagen will be more than happy to take that marketshare.
ajford 6y ago
As an American and a Texan, range bloat can definitely be a thing, but urban densities vary wildly in the US. My daily commute is on average ~30 miles round trip. But if I add a stop or two, that can quickly slew to 50-60 miles if I have to go downtown. And that's living relatively close to city center (~8mi outside downtown). I had a Nissan Leaf and the range anxiety was real. I actually couldn't commute to downtown for work, and settled on taking my Leaf to a nearby Park & Ride and rode commuter bus line the rest of the way. My wife drives a 2017 Volt now, and it's night & day compared to the Leaf. I'm personally ok with the trade-off of carrying a redundant power source for the convenience of never worrying about range again. Aside from a couple of months where we had an issue with our Level 2 EVSE, we primarily use the battery on it. But it is also our road-trip car, given that our other vehicle is getting towards the realm of unreliable for long-distance driving. While I wouldn't consider 200mi "local only", I would venture that anything under 100mi is, until destination charging is far more common. At least in the USA (outside the East & perhaps West coasts). Looking at multiple public charging maps, I can't get between Austin & San Antonio Texas without at least 100mi of range, and that's cutting it close. The scale difference between USA & European countries is rather large, and most people can easily lose sight of that and make statements like 100mi is easily long-distance for Europeans, when most Americans would consider 100mi to be local. I've known people who's daily commute approaches that.

fomine3 6y ago

Longer ranges needs more battery so it makes cars really bigger and heavier but it's not preferred on some countries outside US.