4 ms·

Great depression was bad. 10 world wars 2 of u.s. deaths, also bad. I think the lesson we'll learn is we should have locked down earlier, harder, and longer s

Great depression was bad. 10 world wars 2 of u.s. deaths, also bad. I think the lesson we'll learn is we should have locked down earlier, harder, and longer so we can start a full recovery faster. Even though bars and restaurants are open, myself and every person I know is acting as if a lockdown is still in place. ( I know there are some people who are but there are lots of people who aren't)

chrisco255 6y ago
There will be no fast recovery, period. We have deprived businesses of oxygen for 3 months. Cash flow is the life blood of businesses. We've sucked all the cash flow out of the worldwide economy. The bankruptcies will start rolling in and we will lose at least a decade of economic growth just to recover to where we were. 40+ million unemployed in the U.S. Near record levels. WWII caused 50+ million deaths. Are we on that track now? Hard to say. But I certainly fear worldwide economic instability more than I do Covid-19. My reading of history is that those events cause far more death and destruction than viruses. We know by now that Covid isn't the plague.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- lostlogin 6y ago
  What level of disability or death would make you change your mind? 100k deaths seems a lot to me and how far through is the US now?
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    40% of those were nursing home deaths: https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/covid-19-deaths-nursing-homes-by-state/ https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/covid-19-deaths-nursing-homes... Median age of Covid deaths? 75-84 years. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-... This is on par with median age of death in the U.S. on any given year. You cannot crush the future of your country to extend the life of the elderly by no statistically significant amount. I'm sorry, but that's the truth. For 20-55 year olds, the core of the economy, this virus is not very deadly at all. This age group is far more likely to die from many other causes. I would say, fix the nursing home problem. Ask the elderly to wear masks or shelter in place and to beef up on vitamin intake and anything else that would help their immune system. Then, I would let the youth and young and middle aged adults continue life as normal, develop herd immunity, and therefore prevent a widespread infection next winter.
    - ikeyany 6y ago
      A far less cruel alternative would be to expand sick leave and to detatch health care from employment.
      - lostlogin 6y ago
        > expand sick leave and to detatch health care from employment. It is probably possible to do this and aim for eradication. This is NZs plan. It’ll be interesting once the borders are unlocked.
    - lostlogin 6y ago
      It seems that the average number of years of life lost per covid death is about 10. https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/coronavirus/headline_720672_en.html https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/coronavirus/headline_720672_en.ht...
- JamesBarney 6y ago
  U.S. deaths from world war 2 ~300,000
CubsFan1060 6y ago
FWIW, around here the breweries were "full". (with full being defined as all available tables occupied. Obviously the number of available tables is less now than it was before)

chrisco255 6y ago

There will be no fast recovery, period. We have deprived businesses of oxygen for 3 months. Cash flow is the life blood of businesses. We've sucked all the cash flow out of the worldwide economy. The bankruptcies will start rolling in and we will lose at least a decade of economic growth just to recover to where we were. 40+ million unemployed in the U.S. Near record levels. WWII caused 50+ million deaths. Are we on that track now? Hard to say. But I certainly fear worldwide economic instability more than I do Covid-19. My reading of history is that those events cause far more death and destruction than viruses. We know by now that Covid isn't the plague.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
lostlogin 6y ago
What level of disability or death would make you change your mind? 100k deaths seems a lot to me and how far through is the US now?
- chrisco255 6y ago
  40% of those were nursing home deaths: https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/covid-19-deaths-nursing-homes-by-state/ https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/covid-19-deaths-nursing-homes... Median age of Covid deaths? 75-84 years. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-... This is on par with median age of death in the U.S. on any given year. You cannot crush the future of your country to extend the life of the elderly by no statistically significant amount. I'm sorry, but that's the truth. For 20-55 year olds, the core of the economy, this virus is not very deadly at all. This age group is far more likely to die from many other causes. I would say, fix the nursing home problem. Ask the elderly to wear masks or shelter in place and to beef up on vitamin intake and anything else that would help their immune system. Then, I would let the youth and young and middle aged adults continue life as normal, develop herd immunity, and therefore prevent a widespread infection next winter.
  - ikeyany 6y ago
    A far less cruel alternative would be to expand sick leave and to detatch health care from employment.
    - lostlogin 6y ago
      > expand sick leave and to detatch health care from employment. It is probably possible to do this and aim for eradication. This is NZs plan. It’ll be interesting once the borders are unlocked.
  - lostlogin 6y ago
    It seems that the average number of years of life lost per covid death is about 10. https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/coronavirus/headline_720672_en.html https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/coronavirus/headline_720672_en.ht...
JamesBarney 6y ago
U.S. deaths from world war 2 ~300,000

CubsFan1060 6y ago

FWIW, around here the breweries were "full". (with full being defined as all available tables occupied. Obviously the number of available tables is less now than it was before)