4 ms·

It seems more likely to me that the COVID reporting is shoddy, rather than the implementation of some genius plan. Hundreds of thousands of people die every yea

It seems more likely to me that the COVID reporting is shoddy, rather than the implementation of some genius plan. Hundreds of thousands of people die every year in Vietnam [1] and you're telling me there's a zero percent chance that some of them were miscategorized? Seems unlikely to me. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101034/vietnam-number-of-deaths/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101034/vietnam-number-o...

simion314 6y ago
You can look at extra deaths and miscategorization is not a a giant problem.
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  The extra deaths thing also seems sketchy to me, this early after the outbreak. If someone was within ±12 months of dying and the coronavirus got them, then the death rates of the past month would be higher while the death rates of the next year would still be the same. We are too early to make any statements of fact about it.
  - simion314 6y ago
    You can wait a bit more and average things, but anyway this last point is not part of miss-categorization point I was replying to.
    - ceilingcorner 6y ago
      > this last point is not part of miss-categorization point I was replying to Yes, you're right, and I realized that just as I made the post. But I still don't think that normal rates of death automatically equal coronavirus didn't kill anyone.
      - simion314 6y ago
        You will have a margin of error , my main point is that even if some politicians will push too miss=categorize the deaths, if the numbers are sufficiently large things can't be hidden that way. Do you have any statistics that show that if I die of COVID then this imply that my probability to live 1 more year was very slim without COVID? This kind of number as less then 1 year seems very non-scientific and more something you would use to push your opinion, like yes 400K people died but 99% of them would ahve been dead anyway in a few months
      - soco 6y ago
        On a related topic "City [St Petersburg] issues 1,552 more death certificates in May than last year, but Covid-19 toll was 171" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/st-petersburg-death-tally-casts-doubt-on-russian-coronavirus-figures https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/st-petersburg-...
latch 6y ago
What Vietnam has done is pretty well documented (1). As a single example, schools were closed in early February. It would be nice to have 1 fact or even a made-up-fact that the numbers are screwed aside from _they have to be_. But even if we decided that it was impossible for Vietnam to have handled this properly, you'd still be left with the relatively minuscule death rates from Singapore, South Korea and New Zealand. I grew up in Canada but have lived in Vietnam. There was no doubt in my mind who'd handle this better. (1) https://theconversation.com/vietnam-has-reported-no-coronavirus-deaths-how-136646 https://theconversation.com/vietnam-has-reported-no-coronavi...

simion314 6y ago

You can look at extra deaths and miscategorization is not a a giant problem.

ceilingcorner 6y ago
The extra deaths thing also seems sketchy to me, this early after the outbreak. If someone was within ±12 months of dying and the coronavirus got them, then the death rates of the past month would be higher while the death rates of the next year would still be the same. We are too early to make any statements of fact about it.
- simion314 6y ago
  You can wait a bit more and average things, but anyway this last point is not part of miss-categorization point I was replying to.
  - ceilingcorner 6y ago
    > this last point is not part of miss-categorization point I was replying to Yes, you're right, and I realized that just as I made the post. But I still don't think that normal rates of death automatically equal coronavirus didn't kill anyone.
    - simion314 6y ago
      You will have a margin of error , my main point is that even if some politicians will push too miss=categorize the deaths, if the numbers are sufficiently large things can't be hidden that way. Do you have any statistics that show that if I die of COVID then this imply that my probability to live 1 more year was very slim without COVID? This kind of number as less then 1 year seems very non-scientific and more something you would use to push your opinion, like yes 400K people died but 99% of them would ahve been dead anyway in a few months
    - soco 6y ago
      On a related topic "City [St Petersburg] issues 1,552 more death certificates in May than last year, but Covid-19 toll was 171" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/st-petersburg-death-tally-casts-doubt-on-russian-coronavirus-figures https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/st-petersburg-...

latch 6y ago

What Vietnam has done is pretty well documented (1). As a single example, schools were closed in early February. It would be nice to have 1 fact or even a made-up-fact that the numbers are screwed aside from _they have to be_. But even if we decided that it was impossible for Vietnam to have handled this properly, you'd still be left with the relatively minuscule death rates from Singapore, South Korea and New Zealand. I grew up in Canada but have lived in Vietnam. There was no doubt in my mind who'd handle this better. (1) https://theconversation.com/vietnam-has-reported-no-coronavirus-deaths-how-136646 https://theconversation.com/vietnam-has-reported-no-coronavi...