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Its neighbours have managed death rates of nearly one TENTH of Sweden. The difference in timing of the outbreaks was one or two weeks. That certainly should not

Its neighbours have managed death rates of nearly one TENTH of Sweden. The difference in timing of the outbreaks was one or two weeks. That certainly should not account for a factor of ten difference. And yes, some number of deaths is inevitable. That does not mean that every life saved isn't still a life saved. There is not a set quota of deaths that will inevitably happen, and you can choose to have them happen sooner rather than later. Any extra deaths will mostly be on top of the number of unpreventable deaths.

w0utert 6y ago
> Its neighbours have managed death rates of nearly one TENTH of Sweden. The difference in timing of the outbreaks was one or two weeks. That certainly should not account for a factor of ten difference. How can you be so certain of that, considering the dynamics of the infection rate are exponential. If you look at the curve for the Netherlands it went from 'nothing serious, its just 1 or 2 hospitalizations a day' to full-blown 'within 10 days all hospitals will be overloaded'-panic literally within one week. Add one 'super-spreader' event into the mix like the soccer match in north Italy and you create a huge spike that is only seen two weeks later when its already too late. The exact same thing happened in all of the countries that had the longest lead time between 'nothing to see here' and 'this is really bad we have to do something', the shapes of the excess deaths graphs for these countries are all the same, lock-down or no lock-down. Which makes sense because these were the result of not doing anything for weeks because no-one was taking this seriously yet. I think you cannot just point to the numbers now and conclude the policy in Sweden is to blame for their high numbers of deaths. Especially not considering countries have been opening up for ~3 weeks now, moving more towards the model Sweden has had since day one, and so far no effect on infections or hospitalizations have been observed.
- DagAgren 6y ago
  > Especially not considering countries have been opening up for ~3 weeks now, moving more towards the model Sweden has had since day one, and so far no effect on infections or hospitalizations have been observed. This did not happen automatically. This happens because those countries first got infections under control, and put systems in place to keep them under control.

w0utert 6y ago

> Its neighbours have managed death rates of nearly one TENTH of Sweden. The difference in timing of the outbreaks was one or two weeks. That certainly should not account for a factor of ten difference. How can you be so certain of that, considering the dynamics of the infection rate are exponential. If you look at the curve for the Netherlands it went from 'nothing serious, its just 1 or 2 hospitalizations a day' to full-blown 'within 10 days all hospitals will be overloaded'-panic literally within one week. Add one 'super-spreader' event into the mix like the soccer match in north Italy and you create a huge spike that is only seen two weeks later when its already too late. The exact same thing happened in all of the countries that had the longest lead time between 'nothing to see here' and 'this is really bad we have to do something', the shapes of the excess deaths graphs for these countries are all the same, lock-down or no lock-down. Which makes sense because these were the result of not doing anything for weeks because no-one was taking this seriously yet. I think you cannot just point to the numbers now and conclude the policy in Sweden is to blame for their high numbers of deaths. Especially not considering countries have been opening up for ~3 weeks now, moving more towards the model Sweden has had since day one, and so far no effect on infections or hospitalizations have been observed.

DagAgren 6y ago
> Especially not considering countries have been opening up for ~3 weeks now, moving more towards the model Sweden has had since day one, and so far no effect on infections or hospitalizations have been observed. This did not happen automatically. This happens because those countries first got infections under control, and put systems in place to keep them under control.