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In addition to Belgium (833 dead per million), United Kingdom (597), Spain (580) and Italy (556) have higher death rates than Sweden (446). France is close behi

by Ma8ee 6y ago

In addition to Belgium (833 dead per million), United Kingdom (597), Spain (580) and Italy (556) have higher death rates than Sweden (446). France is close behind (432). And we don't know exactly why Sweden are hit the way it is. The exact week (February 24th to Mars 1st) where the schools in Stockholm had a winter break was the worse possible time for getting the virus back from Italy and the Alps. E.g. Gothenburg which winter break was two weeks earlier wasn't nearly as badly hit. There are just too many variables to assign any clear causes and effects yet.

marvin 6y ago
Norway and Denmark had the same factors you’re pointing to, with a large influx of cases from Italy and Switzerland. But they shut down immediately to stop further spread. In Norway, things were spurred on even faster because a royal testing screwup in one of the biggest hospitals sent 30 people in quarantine. I think that event spooked everyone to take it seriously right away, along with some video conferences with doctors in Lombardy. Textbook case of reducing the exponent of an exponential function early for massive benefits, if you ask me. That’s a very simple explanation. I don’t think the truth is more fancy than that. Even a week or two is an eternity when the doubling time is 3 days, everyone being unprepared and all.
bildung 6y ago
Yes, but all these countries, as said, are significantly poorer than Sweden per capita (e.g. Spain has about 50% of GDP per capita than Sweden). OTOH, Sweden has pretty similar politics and cultural values compared to Denmark and Norway, which means people would react similar to measures like lockdowns etc. Additionally, health care professionals have a similar social standing (as opposed to Spain, where healthcare workers are often poor, which significantly worsened Spains problems). I fully agree that we cannot have a complete understanding of the situation until everything is over, BTW! But Norway and Sweden are similar enough that a factor 10 difference in outcome cannot be ignored.

by Ma8ee 6y ago

marvin 6y ago

Norway and Denmark had the same factors you’re pointing to, with a large influx of cases from Italy and Switzerland. But they shut down immediately to stop further spread. In Norway, things were spurred on even faster because a royal testing screwup in one of the biggest hospitals sent 30 people in quarantine. I think that event spooked everyone to take it seriously right away, along with some video conferences with doctors in Lombardy. Textbook case of reducing the exponent of an exponential function early for massive benefits, if you ask me. That’s a very simple explanation. I don’t think the truth is more fancy than that. Even a week or two is an eternity when the doubling time is 3 days, everyone being unprepared and all.

bildung 6y ago

Yes, but all these countries, as said, are significantly poorer than Sweden per capita (e.g. Spain has about 50% of GDP per capita than Sweden). OTOH, Sweden has pretty similar politics and cultural values compared to Denmark and Norway, which means people would react similar to measures like lockdowns etc. Additionally, health care professionals have a similar social standing (as opposed to Spain, where healthcare workers are often poor, which significantly worsened Spains problems). I fully agree that we cannot have a complete understanding of the situation until everything is over, BTW! But Norway and Sweden are similar enough that a factor 10 difference in outcome cannot be ignored.