4 ms·
Who exactly promised an apocalypse? The early estimates for the IFR from February turned ouf to be quite accurate.
by xorfish 6y ago
Who exactly promised an apocalypse?
The early estimates for the IFR from February turned ouf to be quite accurate.
- nostromo 6y agoEverything I was seeing in February for IFR was wildly inflated based on undercounting of infections from lack of testing. I’m curious what you saw that turned out to be correct.
- xorfish 6y agoScientists and the WHO estimated the IFR to be around 1% in February. Most models that estimate fatalities use that number as well. That estimate has hardly changed.
- thu2111 6y ago1%?! CDC current estimate is around 0.2% and that's certainly still too high, for various reasons.
- xorfish 6y agoSeems highly unlikely, excess mortality is nearly 0.3% of NYC. You would need 150% of NYC to be infected to get to 0.2%. Many seroprevalence studies with prevalence >5% also show that the IFR is in the region of 1%.
- thu2111 6y agohttps://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/ https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-imp... "The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%"