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Other countries in Europe also have lead epidemiologists and scientists (or technical bodies) making the recommendations that then get turned into policy. Those
by ggrrhh_ta 6y ago
Other countries in Europe also have lead epidemiologists and scientists (or technical bodies) making the recommendations that then get turned into policy. Those scientists in Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Norway, France, Spain, Italy are as good as Tegnell is.
Also, the medical approach to people getting sick with COVID-19 has significantly improved over the first month (e.g., early hospitalisation instead of sending a sick person to isolate themselves at home, weeding out drugs that did not work from those that worked, introduction of drugs to control trombosis and secondary damage from the virus, better approaches to when and how use ventilators, etc.).
That means that a number of the deaths that have occurred within the Swedish policy could have been avoided by delaying the infection. More importantly, Sweden's approach has not even achieved a significant level of immunity, as Swedes have been self-imposing social distancing and even a 'lockdown' (working from home).
In an interview in "unherd", Giesecke estimated that the deaths in UK without lockdown would be in the 12,000 (when they where 13,000), then corrected himself to 24,000 (they are almost 40,000 now), and then said they will not be 10x 12,000.
On freedom. The lockdown for reasons of public health is a limitation of our freedom that has been accepted (except in Sweden) by their citizens in their respective contracts as a society (constitutions, laws, etc.). So, per se, it's a limitation akin to not driving over a certain speed in certain roads. Moreover, many people (and students) have reported that the lockdown has been "liberating" - and for others have been depressing (it never rains to everyone's liking)
On ending the lockdown. Tegnell and Giesecke repeat and repeat and repeat that countries imposed a lockdown without a strategy out. Well that's just dire false. When the lockdown was being discussed, the press was already pointing that issue and several strategies were being considered (press from March already discusses the measure by measure approach).
But, whereas other countries are looking conservatively with the evidence (that could be flawed because it is small and incomplete) that they already have, Sweden is relying in an evidence that will only be apparent in the future (if the events turn out to be advantageous for that approach).
If each country had been given an "ant population" with some infected individuals and their epidemiologists needed to manage the epidemic long term while a cure for the ant's illness is found, maybe, the Sweden's approach would have made more sense... At least, most people wouldn't have had much feelings for those ants that could have lived a couple of days longer.
- DanBC 6y ago> In an interview in "unherd", Giesecke estimated that the deaths in UK without lockdown would be in the 12,000 (when they where 13,000), then corrected himself to 24,000 (they are almost 40,000 now), and then said they will not be 10x 12,000. That 40,000 number is "people who died, after testing positive, with a test administered by a Public Health or NHS laboratory" The actual number (excess mortality) is closer to 60,000.
- Kiro 6y agoGiesecke has no official position. He's an attention-seeking troll.
- Henk0 6y agoHe is, however, the former state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnells former boss, and - as was recently reported in the big dailies in Sweden - is currently working as a paid consultant informing the Swedish strategy. Quite the influential troll...
- zosima 6y agoGiesecke had Tegnell's job (State Epidemiologist) 15 years ago. He claims to have recruited both Tegnell and Tegnell's boss Johan Carlson to folkhälsomyndigheten. (FHM) He has furthermore been a paid consultant for FHM for many months now. So he is not just anybody.
- lbeltrame 6y ago> Those scientists in Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Norway, France, Spain, Italy are as good as Tegnell is. I can't speak well of the Italian expert panel. On the day of the "reopening" (not a reopening, but I digress), May 4th, they quoted a non-public report saying that the worst case scenario (out of 92) would bring 150,000 Italians needing ICU care by June 4th. AFAICR, no other scenarios were made known. The report was then leaked (or made known somehow). It had no author information, and contained a lot of old and inaccurate models, and totally arbitrary and unjustified statements. In short, it was utterly wrong. A critique of the report (in Italian): https://www.scienzainrete.it/articolo/fase-2-e-alcune-questioni-sul-report-governativo/maria-luisa-bianco/2020-05-14 https://www.scienzainrete.it/articolo/fase-2-e-alcune-questi... (second half, the first part is about some questionable policy decisions from a legal standpoint) Some Italian experts also say that physical distancing and masks are useless (supporting an indefinite lockdown). The government itself said that masks were not effective until very recently. There is also a lot of confusion (for the lay person) because many contradictory statements are often said.