3 ms·

It would take years with current infection rates in Sweden to get herd immunity. If the plan is to reduce pension costs it seems to work.

natch 6y ago
Taking years is generally the case with long term strategies.
thu2111 6y ago
You're assuming current understandings of herd immunity and epidemiology are correct, which by empirical observation they aren't. The epidemic is already over in Sweden: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden#Deaths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden#De... (more up to date graph: https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IMG_2421.jpg https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IMG_...) Yet a much lower level of infected population than conventionally understood has been reached. The models that assume the virus will continue to grow until 60%-70% have been infected are therefore wrong, reality itself is proving that. There are now a whole lot of theories being explored as to why this is. [edit: someone complained about the original graph link not matching worldometers. It's worldometers that's wrong so I replaced it with a Wikipedia link, which sources its data direct from Swedish health authorities. I left the lockdownsceptics link because it's a bit fresher]
- legulere 6y ago
  I don’t know where “lockdown sceptics” got their data from but for me the current numbers look like a constant infection rate and only slightly reduced death rate that is also not falling: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
sampo 6y ago
> If the plan is to reduce pension costs it seems to work. We don't know. Covid19 leaves some people with long-term, perhaps permanent damage. You might lose working-age tax-paying people from workforce, having to pay them disability allowance, and this might offset part or all of your savings in pensions.

natch 6y ago

Taking years is generally the case with long term strategies.

thu2111 6y ago

You're assuming current understandings of herd immunity and epidemiology are correct, which by empirical observation they aren't. The epidemic is already over in Sweden: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden#Deaths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden#De... (more up to date graph: https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IMG_2421.jpg https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IMG_...) Yet a much lower level of infected population than conventionally understood has been reached. The models that assume the virus will continue to grow until 60%-70% have been infected are therefore wrong, reality itself is proving that. There are now a whole lot of theories being explored as to why this is. [edit: someone complained about the original graph link not matching worldometers. It's worldometers that's wrong so I replaced it with a Wikipedia link, which sources its data direct from Swedish health authorities. I left the lockdownsceptics link because it's a bit fresher]

legulere 6y ago
I don’t know where “lockdown sceptics” got their data from but for me the current numbers look like a constant infection rate and only slightly reduced death rate that is also not falling: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

sampo 6y ago

> If the plan is to reduce pension costs it seems to work. We don't know. Covid19 leaves some people with long-term, perhaps permanent damage. You might lose working-age tax-paying people from workforce, having to pay them disability allowance, and this might offset part or all of your savings in pensions.