3 ms·

I like to remind people that in 2008, Bear Stearns fell in March. Most of the the economy didn't realize the financial system problems until late August. I'm w

I like to remind people that in 2008, Bear Stearns fell in March. Most of the the economy didn't realize the financial system problems until late August. I'm waiting for a very large shoe to drop in a few months. How big will depend on whether consumers feel comfortable about their jobs+health.

uoaei 6y ago
> How big will depend on whether consumers feel comfortable about their jobs+health. This is a very frightening sentence because obviously not many consumers feel comfortable about either right now.
bsanr2 6y ago
Titanic Syndrome. Everything's going under, but the people on the upper decks are still enjoying their late-night cigars while the boiler crew is drowning. It's an interesting phenomenon (and, I'm sure, has a better name than the one I just made up).
- fabianhjr 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure
  - bsanr2 6y ago
    I wanna say, "There we go," but this is slightly different. Not so much that one failure unexpectedly causes total collapse down the line, more so that a catastrophic failure of important components (which obviously are going to cause a system collapse to anyone who knows what happened) happens in a system so large that other portions of that doomed system are not even aware.
adamsmith 6y ago
The turnarounds always happen quickly after the fed takes serious action. Consider the 2008 crisis, or take 1933 (I believe?) when we broke from the gold standard: immediate exit from the Great Depression. The fed and congress have been very on point with the stimulus response speed this time around and so I think we’ve seen the bottom of the market through this. And most investors are voting with their dollars that this is true. (I’m just parroting Ray Dalio.)

3 ms·

I like to remind people that in 2008, Bear Stearns fell in March. Most of the the economy didn't realize the financial system problems until late August. I'm w

by thephyber 6y ago

uoaei 6y ago
> How big will depend on whether consumers feel comfortable about their jobs+health. This is a very frightening sentence because obviously not many consumers feel comfortable about either right now.
bsanr2 6y ago
Titanic Syndrome. Everything's going under, but the people on the upper decks are still enjoying their late-night cigars while the boiler crew is drowning. It's an interesting phenomenon (and, I'm sure, has a better name than the one I just made up).
- fabianhjr 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure
  - bsanr2 6y ago
    I wanna say, "There we go," but this is slightly different. Not so much that one failure unexpectedly causes total collapse down the line, more so that a catastrophic failure of important components (which obviously are going to cause a system collapse to anyone who knows what happened) happens in a system so large that other portions of that doomed system are not even aware.
adamsmith 6y ago
The turnarounds always happen quickly after the fed takes serious action. Consider the 2008 crisis, or take 1933 (I believe?) when we broke from the gold standard: immediate exit from the Great Depression. The fed and congress have been very on point with the stimulus response speed this time around and so I think we’ve seen the bottom of the market through this. And most investors are voting with their dollars that this is true. (I’m just parroting Ray Dalio.)