3 ms·
Which professional published best case death estimate did we not beat? I am not aware of one. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23028036 https://news.ycombi
by jakeogh 6y ago
Which professional published best case death estimate did we not beat? I am not aware of one.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23028036 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23028036
Typical flu seasons: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pneumonia-deaths-2008-2015.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pn...
Covid-19 death counts as of ~2 weeks ago: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
- DiogenesKynikos 6y agoThe link you gave for "typical flu seasons" is difficult to read, because it's disaggregated by age. This CDC link gives the overall numbers by year: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html. In the US, three times as many people have already died of CoVID-19 as die from influenza in a normal year. The number of deaths from CoVID-19 continues to rise, and nobody knows what number it will eventually reach. With a 0.5% mortality rate and an R0 of 2.5, the expected death toll (before herd immunity is reached) would be ~1 million people in the US, or the equivalent of 30 years of influenza deaths.
- jakeogh 6y agoThe sum totals are given in the first line for each season. 2015-2016 Flu: 7,961 Pneumonia: 131,858 All: 1,769,940
- DiogenesKynikos 6y agoAre those confirmed influenza deaths? They're several times lower than the CDC's estimates for total US influenza deaths, which are usually around 35,000/year.