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There are at least 2 different perspectives to look at Sweden's strategy. One is the long term view: Whether Sweden's approach will, when this pandemic is over
by imartin2k 6y ago
There are at least 2 different perspectives to look at Sweden's strategy.
One is the long term view: Whether Sweden's approach will, when this pandemic is over, turn out to have produced a "better" outcome in regards to e.g. fatalities, severely sick, people who need rehab, economic performance and societal stability, in comparison to other countries. As is frequently being emphasized: It's too early for a verdict here. We'll know in hindsight.
But then there is another perspective: The one based on risk-reward, and based on what is the right thing to do in the moment for a democratic, humanist society that generally promotes values based on protecting lives, particularly of the weak.
Confronted with a new, evidently potentially very dangerous virus about which few things were known other than it created chaos in various places and led to many deaths, Sweden chose a gamble based on a rather bad risk-reward distribution. Let's say Sweden will turn out to be "right" in the long term (meaning other countries will eventually also end up with similar numbers of fatalities/infected per capita), then the reward will be at best moderate: A slightly better economy (as an export-nation, Sweden's economy suffers when other countries shut down regardless of Sweden's own strategy) and a bit more individual freedom for people to do what they wanted even during crisis times.
But if Sweden should turn out to be wrong (meaning that other countries manage to keep numbers of fatalities/severely sick much lower indefinitely, and economies will only do a bit worse, until we have a vaccine, or until the virus has mutated to become much weaker), then the downside is gigantic: Thousands of people whose life could have been saved, thousands more who had to fall severely sick who could have been spared this experience, a damaged global reputation (which is one of the most important things for Swedes: What others think of their country) as well as a moral identity crisis (because how to justify future signaling of moral superiority if one has just sacrificed thousands for an utilitarian ideal?!).
Ethics and moral aside, choosing a strategy with such a bad distribution of reward and risk strikes me as highly dubious.
Furthermore, based on my own personal ethical/moral set of values, the damage is done. Even IF Sweden will look better once we'll be out of the pandemic, the whole strategy was inevitably based on an ethically questionable gamble, which could have gone either way, and which as I see it sets a rather concerning precedent.
If one crosses a highly trafficked street with closed eyes, even if one makes it to the other side unharmed, the worst outcome is if one concludes that this was smart and should be repeated again in the future.
As I see it, Sweden went on a dangerous path, historically taken by those who turned out to be on the wrong side of history.
I moved from Germany to Sweden in 2006 but I’m not sure anymore if this is a great country for the future. And it’s emotionally very tough on me having to confront those thoughts.
- yaris 6y agoSwedish authorities relied on their citizen to behave, follow rules and use common sense in general, plus some administrative measures that can be implemented only by organizations. To me this is much better than to force people into lockdown no matter what. This has shown (again) negative parts of the swedish mindset, but that is a different matter and possibly the current approach with COVID will help to improve (if not eliminate) those parts.
- imartin2k 6y agoLet's hope you are right. Edit: I clicked on your previous comments and saw one from some months ago where you wrote this: "Swedes tend not to think about "bad case", so if something does not go according to an optimistic plan - it sometimes comes as a great surprise for them" This exactly in line with the current situation and my own assessment. So do you see a chance that this will be enough of a learning experience so in the future, Swedes (on a group level) will become better in factoring in the "bad case" in their decisions/thinking?
- yaris 6y agoI really hope that this COVID situation will be a strong enough kick in the ass. Sweden as a country and as a social group is nowadays not swift enough to react to things turning bad, so it _has_ to learn to be proactive.
- s1artibartfast 6y agoAs an outsider, I thought the opposite had happened. Early in the pandemic, The virus was thought to be both more deadly and more contagious. Many countries adopted a goal of flattening the curve, with the understanding that the the virus could not be suppressed. Sweden pursued a fatten the curve policy in a very sensible manner, keep infections as high as your health system can handle until herd resistance is achieved.
- Lewton 6y agoGreat post. Couldn’t agree more. Defending Sweden’s strategy displays “results oriented thinking”, a derogatory term used in poker to describe someone who claims they did the right thing just because they got lucky and won a single hand, completely disregarding the long term viability of the choices they made. It’s the kind of player you’d love to have at your table as they’ll eventually lose everything.