3 ms·

> I don’t think this will happen in the northern hemisphere, thankfully. There is reason to believe both that effective R drops off a cliff in the summer months

> I don’t think this will happen in the northern hemisphere, thankfully. There is reason to believe both that effective R drops off a cliff in the summer months, and that we’re much closer to herd immunity (or whatever is possible with this kind of virus) than most people think. If you want references I can dig them up, but I guess we’ll see either way in a few weeks. All sources I've seen before say something different about those two things (i.e. supposedly effective R will maybe go a bit down in summer but in all likelihood not by much; and herd immunity is in most (or all) places still very far away), but I'm not following the science very close so I might very well be wrong. I'd be very grateful if you could dig up those references!

guscost 6y ago
Keep in mind these are mostly preprints, so adjust their value accordingly: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.100545v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.100545v1 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v... https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02569149 https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02569149 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120477v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120477v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v... There isn't much completed research about the seasonality of COVID-19 itself (understandably), the "cliff" is mostly an educated guess based on the strong seasonal pattern we see with every other respiratory virus. Here are a couple papers: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v...

guscost 6y ago

Keep in mind these are mostly preprints, so adjust their value accordingly: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.100545v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.100545v1 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v... https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02569149 https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02569149 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120477v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120477v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v... There isn't much completed research about the seasonality of COVID-19 itself (understandably), the "cliff" is mostly an educated guess based on the strong seasonal pattern we see with every other respiratory virus. Here are a couple papers: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v...