4 ms·

> In 2-3 weeks, a brutal "second wave" is just ... guaranteed. And, it'll be presented as a "surprise"! Who could have possibly predicted it! By golly, we'll ha

> In 2-3 weeks, a brutal "second wave" is just ... guaranteed. And, it'll be presented as a "surprise"! Who could have possibly predicted it! By golly, we'll have to really put the hammer down, this time! I don’t think this will happen in the northern hemisphere, thankfully. There is reason to believe both that effective R drops off a cliff in the summer months, and that we’re much closer to herd immunity (or whatever is possible with this kind of virus) than most people think. If you want references I can dig them up, but I guess we’ll see either way in a few weeks.

redis_mlc 6y ago
> we’re much closer to herd immunity (or whatever is possible with this kind of virus) than most people think Certainly for SF/LA, which is basically an extension of China because of the daily flights to SFO and LAX. The SF tests show 3.6% of 78,000 exposed to corona, but nobody knows how accurate those tests are. The hospital dashboard has been flat. I just checked, and the numbers have been flat (no growth) for over a month, with only 62 deaths to date and 38 in ICU now: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#hospital https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#ho...
roelschroeven 6y ago
> I don’t think this will happen in the northern hemisphere, thankfully. There is reason to believe both that effective R drops off a cliff in the summer months, and that we’re much closer to herd immunity (or whatever is possible with this kind of virus) than most people think. If you want references I can dig them up, but I guess we’ll see either way in a few weeks. All sources I've seen before say something different about those two things (i.e. supposedly effective R will maybe go a bit down in summer but in all likelihood not by much; and herd immunity is in most (or all) places still very far away), but I'm not following the science very close so I might very well be wrong. I'd be very grateful if you could dig up those references!
- guscost 6y ago
  Keep in mind these are mostly preprints, so adjust their value accordingly: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.100545v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.100545v1 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v... https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02569149 https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02569149 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120477v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120477v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v... There isn't much completed research about the seasonality of COVID-19 itself (understandably), the "cliff" is mostly an educated guess based on the strong seasonal pattern we see with every other respiratory virus. Here are a couple papers: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v...

redis_mlc 6y ago

> we’re much closer to herd immunity (or whatever is possible with this kind of virus) than most people think Certainly for SF/LA, which is basically an extension of China because of the daily flights to SFO and LAX. The SF tests show 3.6% of 78,000 exposed to corona, but nobody knows how accurate those tests are. The hospital dashboard has been flat. I just checked, and the numbers have been flat (no growth) for over a month, with only 62 deaths to date and 38 in ICU now: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#hospital https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#ho...

roelschroeven 6y ago

> I don’t think this will happen in the northern hemisphere, thankfully. There is reason to believe both that effective R drops off a cliff in the summer months, and that we’re much closer to herd immunity (or whatever is possible with this kind of virus) than most people think. If you want references I can dig them up, but I guess we’ll see either way in a few weeks. All sources I've seen before say something different about those two things (i.e. supposedly effective R will maybe go a bit down in summer but in all likelihood not by much; and herd immunity is in most (or all) places still very far away), but I'm not following the science very close so I might very well be wrong. I'd be very grateful if you could dig up those references!

guscost 6y ago
Keep in mind these are mostly preprints, so adjust their value accordingly: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.100545v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.100545v1 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v... https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02569149 https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02569149 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120477v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120477v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v... There isn't much completed research about the seasonality of COVID-19 itself (understandably), the "cliff" is mostly an educated guess based on the strong seasonal pattern we see with every other respiratory virus. Here are a couple papers: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791v...