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I wonder to what extent there is also a prisoner's dilemma problem here, insofar as defecting makes more sense if you have strong prior knowledge or belief that

I wonder to what extent there is also a prisoner's dilemma problem here, insofar as defecting makes more sense if you have strong prior knowledge or belief that your opponent will defect. ( https://ncase.me/trust/ https://ncase.me/trust/ provides a great interactive and intuitive understanding of the prisoner's dilemma.) For example, using one of the hypotheticals from the paper, I could imagine multiple reasons for a partisan to "support a redistricting plan that gives them more seats despite a decline in polling": 1) Choosing to intentionally commit anti-democratic behavior, such as to "win at all costs". Someone couldn't justify this (to themselves or others) directly through democratic values, though they could attempt to argue that winning averts some worse outcome. 2) Perceiving unfairness in existing polling (e.g. disenfranchisement, gerrymandering, etc), and choosing an action they perceive as "balancing" similar anti-democratic behavior by the other side, with the justification that the outcome may be closer to democratic. Someone could justify this (to themselves or others) directly through democratic values alone, particularly if they argued that they would prefer the outcome in which neither side commits such anti-democratic behavior. Possibility (2) allows people to self-justify defection from democratic principles more easily, and feel more morally correct in doing so. It's difficult to get back from that situation to one in which everyone follows democratic norms and principles, if cooperating (following those norms and principles) is or is perceived as a losing strategy.

yazaddaruvala 6y ago
You have to also take into account Long Term and Short Term thinking. Not only are we playing a Prisoners’ Dilemma but most of the population is thinking about a value function that pays off in the Short Term (it’s definitely true about events outside the population’s expected lifespan, but also is true within a single lifespan). In the Long Term all of our needs are relatively aligned. There are pivotal points in history like the signing of the Magna Carta at knife point, rather than yet another relatively-shallow regime change, that are thinking about the value function in the Long Term. There will one day be an iteration on democracy that solves the Byzantine Generals Problem. Where the “failures of communication” are caused by Short Term thinking.

yazaddaruvala 6y ago

You have to also take into account Long Term and Short Term thinking. Not only are we playing a Prisoners’ Dilemma but most of the population is thinking about a value function that pays off in the Short Term (it’s definitely true about events outside the population’s expected lifespan, but also is true within a single lifespan). In the Long Term all of our needs are relatively aligned. There are pivotal points in history like the signing of the Magna Carta at knife point, rather than yet another relatively-shallow regime change, that are thinking about the value function in the Long Term. There will one day be an iteration on democracy that solves the Byzantine Generals Problem. Where the “failures of communication” are caused by Short Term thinking.