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> "(odds of contracting, 1 in 350, odds of dying, 1 in 7000)" and 1 in 100 odds of dying from a car accident. it's less about being bad at math, and more abou

> "(odds of contracting, 1 in 350, odds of dying, 1 in 7000)" and 1 in 100 odds of dying from a car accident. it's less about being bad at math, and more about poorly trained intuitions around risk and being consistent in response.

empath75 6y ago
All of those odds are nonsensical without a time frame. Are we talking about on a trip to a grocery store, or this year, or in a life time?
- benburleson 6y ago
  Also important to not ignore the "reward" half of risk vs reward. Sure, I could never get in a car again and be loads safer, statistically. But am I really willing to give up that convenience? The real point is not taking unnecessary risks, not just avoiding all risk in life.
Buttons840 6y ago
Now that we've brought up COVID and car accidents. About 36,500 people died in car accidents in the US in 2018 [1], so about 100 people per day die from car accidents in the US. About 1,000 people are dying per day from COVID, currently [2]. Wouldn't this mean that the odds of dying from COVID are much higher than dying from a car accident? Which would contradict the odds I'm seeing in this thread. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- clairity 6y ago
  > "Wouldn't this mean that the odds of dying from COVID are much higher than dying from a car accident?" we don't know yet due to the newness of covid, meaning it's steady-state death rate is uncertain, but it seems very unlikely to overtake car accidents. based on what we do know about covid now, its trajectory, and comparing to relatives, covid will probably only kill you the first time (and mostly if you're late in life) or not at all, so lifetime odds might end up between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 5000. lifetime odds of dying in a car accident is relatively known, at 1 in 100, so probably 50-100X more deadly than covid.
- rescripting 6y ago
  I believe the "1 in 100 odds of dying in a car crash" is during your lifetime, not per annum. If you look at the likelihood of death from an auto accident in a given year its more like 1 in 8,300. [1] Because COVID will (hopefully) become less threatening over time as the pandemic resolves the lifetime odds of death from it will be lower. [1] https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk#Odds%20Of%20Death%20In%20The%20United%20States%20By%20Selected%20Cause%20Of%20Injury,%202018%20(1) https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortalit...
  - empath75 6y ago
    I think the average American probably has close to a 1 in 500 chance of dying of corona virus in the next two years (although that’s not evenly distributed by age to say the least). That’s assuming 20% of people catch it and I think that’s fairly conservative.

empath75 6y ago

All of those odds are nonsensical without a time frame. Are we talking about on a trip to a grocery store, or this year, or in a life time?

benburleson 6y ago
Also important to not ignore the "reward" half of risk vs reward. Sure, I could never get in a car again and be loads safer, statistically. But am I really willing to give up that convenience? The real point is not taking unnecessary risks, not just avoiding all risk in life.

Buttons840 6y ago

Now that we've brought up COVID and car accidents. About 36,500 people died in car accidents in the US in 2018 [1], so about 100 people per day die from car accidents in the US. About 1,000 people are dying per day from COVID, currently [2]. Wouldn't this mean that the odds of dying from COVID are much higher than dying from a car accident? Which would contradict the odds I'm seeing in this thread. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

clairity 6y ago
> "Wouldn't this mean that the odds of dying from COVID are much higher than dying from a car accident?" we don't know yet due to the newness of covid, meaning it's steady-state death rate is uncertain, but it seems very unlikely to overtake car accidents. based on what we do know about covid now, its trajectory, and comparing to relatives, covid will probably only kill you the first time (and mostly if you're late in life) or not at all, so lifetime odds might end up between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 5000. lifetime odds of dying in a car accident is relatively known, at 1 in 100, so probably 50-100X more deadly than covid.
rescripting 6y ago
I believe the "1 in 100 odds of dying in a car crash" is during your lifetime, not per annum. If you look at the likelihood of death from an auto accident in a given year its more like 1 in 8,300. [1] Because COVID will (hopefully) become less threatening over time as the pandemic resolves the lifetime odds of death from it will be lower. [1] https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk#Odds%20Of%20Death%20In%20The%20United%20States%20By%20Selected%20Cause%20Of%20Injury,%202018%20(1) https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortalit...
- empath75 6y ago
  I think the average American probably has close to a 1 in 500 chance of dying of corona virus in the next two years (although that’s not evenly distributed by age to say the least). That’s assuming 20% of people catch it and I think that’s fairly conservative.