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Somewhere along the line the marketing of Autopilot fell apart. As an airline pilot when I hear the word autopilot I think of a system that generally drives the

Somewhere along the line the marketing of Autopilot fell apart. As an airline pilot when I hear the word autopilot I think of a system that generally drives the aircraft along a programmed routing and vertical profile. It is most definitely not a set it and forget it device. Training repeatedly stresses that someone must be monitoring the actions of the autopilot at all times and it’s taken very seriously as it can rapidly place you in a very undesirable state. Somewhere along the way Tesla Autopilot became marketed as a fully self-driving system freeing us to tune out. I think the criticism about the capabilities of the system could be toned down some but we most definitely should be critical of what capabilities are advertised and what instruction is given for the person operating the system. I think it’s very likely that an Autopilot like system could make driving significantly safer but only if we figure out the human interaction aspects and fully and truthfully communicate the capabilities of that system.

vagab0nd 6y ago
They used "Auto Cruise" in the 80s. https://youtu.be/hfRiedxPQhs?t=362 https://youtu.be/hfRiedxPQhs?t=362
6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago
As an airline pilot, how long do you typically have to respond to an autopilot issue? Is it seconds? Split second?
- bronco21016 6y ago
  That is an aspect that is admittedly different from a car. It really depends on the phase of flight. In cruise there are rarely instances that an immediate reaction is needed. In the terminal environment though where you’re closer to the ground and other traffic it can definitely be split second. Autopilots will incorrectly intercept approach guidance and fly through the course or altitude when you’re low to the ground or blow through the lateral course into a parallel runway’s course. That’s the most frequent failure I’ve encountered. I’ve also seen it just completely lose its mind on autoland at low altitude requiring intervention. Point is split second decisions are needed during critical phases of flight. Driving a car on autopilot is likely going to require that level of vigilance during the entire drive unless we get highway systems that present hyper controlled environments where self-driving cars have higher reliability. This can kind of be likened to why cruise is less critical in an aircraft. You’re at high altitude, traffic is exclusively controlled by ATC (unlike low altitude where there is traffic not under ATC control), and the aircraft are all required to operate on autopilot and have collision avoidance systems where the aircraft communicate with each other (TCAS). Aviation has dealt with the integration of these systems for the last 5 decades and the human/machine interface. There have been many failures and successes and I think it would be a great place to start for figuring out how this works with cars.
  - ChicagoBoy11 6y ago
    Well but it sounds like the way we started is to take all of those lessons and chuck them out the window! Don't fly airliners, but I fly a trusty Cirrus with plenty of "advanced" avionics. The fact is that during the pillot training so much of your focus is on the failure points of the automation and how to recover. How we're building this into cars makes that an almost impossibility. The domain certainly makes it challenging, and it may prove to ultimately be impossible with current tech, but the analogy to me is like we're selling "autopilot" in cars in the same way we'd sell CAT III landing equipment in an airliner if what were powering that CAT III automation was your DIY Stratus.
teej 6y ago
> Somewhere along the way Tesla Autopilot became marketed as a fully self-driving system freeing us to tune out Do you own a Tesla or ever considered buying one? This is a misconception I hear from folks who never planned to own one but not from owners.
- Rebelgecko 6y ago
  >This is a misconception I hear from folks who never planned to own one but not from owners. And it's a misconception that Tesla happily took advantage of in their marketing for years. Their autopilot webpage used to be titled "Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars". The marketing copy said stuff like "all Tesla vehicles... have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." They neglected to mention that the software wasn't at that level yet, which I think is incredibly misleading since the hardware by itself is useless (and without corresponding software, it remains to be seen if the hardware they are using actually is capable of full self-driving)
- zaroth 6y ago
  As a Tesla owner I personally find it abundantly clear the system is extremely limited. First, it reminds you every time you turn it on. Second, it reminds you during the drive based on perceived torque on the wheel. But more to the point, the guidance display helps you understand its limits of its perception just driving it day-to-day. AutoPilot changes how you drive, but does not change the fact that you are indeed the driver. I observe other drivers every day who are distracted with other tasks, impaired, or just driving aggressively, and many thousands die on the road each year because of this. I fully expect that AutoPilot software driving in a mode where there is not supposed to be a responsible driver with hands on the wheel and looking out the window would actually operate significantly different than the current system. I would not be surprised if false-negative threshold behavior is configured higher in the current software based on operational requirements. This driver was effectively asleep at the wheel. I’m very glad they were unharmed. Because the current software is expressly designed to require an attentive driver, it’s hard to say even that the software failed. Teslas on AutoPilot drive safely, nonaggresively, and highly predictably. They are by no means a fully self-driving system freeing the driver the tune out. There are a hundred ways you can crash a Tesla on AutoPilot in a hot minute if you want to. This is clearly apparent upon operating a Tesla AP for the first time, even if you never open the user manual. Humans don’t alway make smart choices however, whether their car has assistive technology or not. The data does show the average Tesla driver with AP is about 10x less likely to have an accident, and less likely to die or be injured in an accident if they do have one, than the average overall driver. So if a driver is going to make a terrible choice to be distracted or inattentive while driving, I’d rather they did it in a Tesla with AP enabled.
jvanderbot 6y ago
It's not "somewhere" it's from Tesla and all other self-driving car companies hyping their eventual product to get stock boosts or get bought. Nobody that I've ever met in industry or tech seriously thought that self-driving was possible en masse. There's just too many unknowns.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
taneq 6y ago
> Somewhere along the way Tesla Autopilot became marketed as a fully self-driving system freeing us to tune out. Maybe it was somewhere around the point that they decided to call the top level autopilot option "Full Self-Driving"? They also had their demo day with a "full self driving" demo and basically claimed they could do that and that Autopilot would do it "soon". Elon's said repeatedly over the years that "by the end of the year" they'd have full eyes-off self driving. I can see how some average consumers could misconstrue this as Autopilot being more-or-less eyes off.

vagab0nd 6y ago

They used "Auto Cruise" in the 80s. https://youtu.be/hfRiedxPQhs?t=362 https://youtu.be/hfRiedxPQhs?t=362

6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago

As an airline pilot, how long do you typically have to respond to an autopilot issue? Is it seconds? Split second?

bronco21016 6y ago
That is an aspect that is admittedly different from a car. It really depends on the phase of flight. In cruise there are rarely instances that an immediate reaction is needed. In the terminal environment though where you’re closer to the ground and other traffic it can definitely be split second. Autopilots will incorrectly intercept approach guidance and fly through the course or altitude when you’re low to the ground or blow through the lateral course into a parallel runway’s course. That’s the most frequent failure I’ve encountered. I’ve also seen it just completely lose its mind on autoland at low altitude requiring intervention. Point is split second decisions are needed during critical phases of flight. Driving a car on autopilot is likely going to require that level of vigilance during the entire drive unless we get highway systems that present hyper controlled environments where self-driving cars have higher reliability. This can kind of be likened to why cruise is less critical in an aircraft. You’re at high altitude, traffic is exclusively controlled by ATC (unlike low altitude where there is traffic not under ATC control), and the aircraft are all required to operate on autopilot and have collision avoidance systems where the aircraft communicate with each other (TCAS). Aviation has dealt with the integration of these systems for the last 5 decades and the human/machine interface. There have been many failures and successes and I think it would be a great place to start for figuring out how this works with cars.
- ChicagoBoy11 6y ago
  Well but it sounds like the way we started is to take all of those lessons and chuck them out the window! Don't fly airliners, but I fly a trusty Cirrus with plenty of "advanced" avionics. The fact is that during the pillot training so much of your focus is on the failure points of the automation and how to recover. How we're building this into cars makes that an almost impossibility. The domain certainly makes it challenging, and it may prove to ultimately be impossible with current tech, but the analogy to me is like we're selling "autopilot" in cars in the same way we'd sell CAT III landing equipment in an airliner if what were powering that CAT III automation was your DIY Stratus.

teej 6y ago

> Somewhere along the way Tesla Autopilot became marketed as a fully self-driving system freeing us to tune out Do you own a Tesla or ever considered buying one? This is a misconception I hear from folks who never planned to own one but not from owners.

Rebelgecko 6y ago
>This is a misconception I hear from folks who never planned to own one but not from owners. And it's a misconception that Tesla happily took advantage of in their marketing for years. Their autopilot webpage used to be titled "Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars". The marketing copy said stuff like "all Tesla vehicles... have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." They neglected to mention that the software wasn't at that level yet, which I think is incredibly misleading since the hardware by itself is useless (and without corresponding software, it remains to be seen if the hardware they are using actually is capable of full self-driving)
zaroth 6y ago
As a Tesla owner I personally find it abundantly clear the system is extremely limited. First, it reminds you every time you turn it on. Second, it reminds you during the drive based on perceived torque on the wheel. But more to the point, the guidance display helps you understand its limits of its perception just driving it day-to-day. AutoPilot changes how you drive, but does not change the fact that you are indeed the driver. I observe other drivers every day who are distracted with other tasks, impaired, or just driving aggressively, and many thousands die on the road each year because of this. I fully expect that AutoPilot software driving in a mode where there is not supposed to be a responsible driver with hands on the wheel and looking out the window would actually operate significantly different than the current system. I would not be surprised if false-negative threshold behavior is configured higher in the current software based on operational requirements. This driver was effectively asleep at the wheel. I’m very glad they were unharmed. Because the current software is expressly designed to require an attentive driver, it’s hard to say even that the software failed. Teslas on AutoPilot drive safely, nonaggresively, and highly predictably. They are by no means a fully self-driving system freeing the driver the tune out. There are a hundred ways you can crash a Tesla on AutoPilot in a hot minute if you want to. This is clearly apparent upon operating a Tesla AP for the first time, even if you never open the user manual. Humans don’t alway make smart choices however, whether their car has assistive technology or not. The data does show the average Tesla driver with AP is about 10x less likely to have an accident, and less likely to die or be injured in an accident if they do have one, than the average overall driver. So if a driver is going to make a terrible choice to be distracted or inattentive while driving, I’d rather they did it in a Tesla with AP enabled.

jvanderbot 6y ago

It's not "somewhere" it's from Tesla and all other self-driving car companies hyping their eventual product to get stock boosts or get bought. Nobody that I've ever met in industry or tech seriously thought that self-driving was possible en masse. There's just too many unknowns.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

taneq 6y ago

> Somewhere along the way Tesla Autopilot became marketed as a fully self-driving system freeing us to tune out. Maybe it was somewhere around the point that they decided to call the top level autopilot option "Full Self-Driving"? They also had their demo day with a "full self driving" demo and basically claimed they could do that and that Autopilot would do it "soon". Elon's said repeatedly over the years that "by the end of the year" they'd have full eyes-off self driving. I can see how some average consumers could misconstrue this as Autopilot being more-or-less eyes off.