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First I want to say voter ID laws are in practice intended to disenfranchise voters. Which makes them unethical. I have also never seen any evidence that it's
by adrianmonk 6y ago
First I want to say voter ID laws are in practice intended to disenfranchise voters. Which makes them unethical.
I have also never seen any evidence that it's an actual problem on any significant scale. But, in theory, I think the threat model is there.
Here in Texas, you can get a list of everyone who is registered to vote. Most states make these lists available; in Texas, it's available to anyone. So that takes care of one of the steps of identity theft, which this is a form of.
In my county, we also allow people to vote at any polling place (so you can vote on your lunch hour, etc.), so you wouldn't need to drive to anyone's precinct. You could just visit which ever polling place(s) are convenient.
I agree it won't work if the person has already voted. But you're in a race with the voter, and you've got a 50% shot at winning that race.
And voter turnout isn't 100%; it's more like 50-60%. If that voter is one of the 40% who don't vote, then you win that race by default. If they're one of the 60% who does, then you've got a 50/50 shot. That adds up to 70% odds of success at stealing their vote.
You can even optimize that further by looking at demographic data about voter turnout. Young people, for example, have low turnout and old people have high turnout, and the voter rolls include date of birth.
- mikeyouse 6y agoYou're not in a race with the voter since if you guess wrong and the person you were counting on to not vote, shows up to vote after you (or even before you, it doesn't matter) -- then the game is up and there will be an investigation into the felony you just committed when two identical names show up. You have to be certain that there won't be two votes cast by the same person, so you can see how your probability of not being found out rapidly goes to 0. Even if you rely on the 60% turnout figure, after 3 fraudulent votes you're at a ~6% chance of not being caught.
- adrianmonk 6y agoOK, I see what you're saying. Assuming enforcement is good and consistent, I have to agree it's hard to pull it off on a large scale. I'm a little dubious that enforcement actually is good. But if you don't do enforcement properly, then voter ID laws don't prevent fraud either.