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> Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel

> Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel ties) and eat it too It is standard negotiating OP by both sides. Just take a look at the Troika / Greece negotiations: breakthroughs come at the very last minute. Extending the transition period merely lengthens the phoney negotiations. > There is no exit that puts the UK in a better position because it imagines itself to have power and influence that it does not possess. Viewed through an economic lens, Brexit will do damadge, certainly in the short term. Medium to long term depends on whether the Tories learn drop austerity and to love Keynes . It seems Sunak does, going by short record so far. Viewed through a political / sovereignty lens the argument for Brexit is on a stronger footing.

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
> and to love Keynes Debts get repaid, one way (with repayment) or another (welshing and never being trusted again)
- noir-york 6y ago
  Yes, of course. The point is that Keynesian macro and appropriate tax policies are a much better policy response than austerity can ever be. The UK has the advantage of printing its own currency so it can engage in monetary financing if the situation warrants it; an option not available to Euro economies.
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    > are a much better policy response than austerity can ever be. I have my serious doubts. Spending large amounts of money wisely or blowing it wildly can look the same (HS2?) but the outcome is different. > The UK has the advantage of printing its own currency I'm not an economist - how does this work? Is this any different from a person getting indebted on a credit card? Honest question.
    - noir-york 6y ago
      > I have my serious doubts. Spending large amounts of money wisely or blowing it wildly can look the same (HS2?) but the outcome is different. Austerity takes money out of a contracting economy making the situation worse, creating a vicious cycle, and whats worse hollowing out govt services (NHS, policing, education). Austerity is dangerous on a number of levels. > Is this any different from a person getting indebted on a credit card? Honest question. Yes, its completely different. Debt creates a liability, it needs to be paid back. Monetary financing - aka helicopter money - is precisely the opposite. The central bank "prints" money: it can be credited to the govt's account, or the CB can directly credit household bank accounts with money created from thin air. No new liabilities are created. The problems with monetary financing is that it can get addictive; its use outside of situations of extreme economic distress is the biggest risk with its use.
      - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
        I dunno about austerity. Seems the way it was done in the uk was wrong in that most of the weight fell on the poorest. Your description of helicopter money sounds wrong - if it's so great why not do it more often. Inflationary at the very least. There have to be liabilities to it. It doesn't add up, do you have any references? TIA
        noir-york 6y ago
        > Your description of helicopter money sounds wrong - if it's so great why not do it more often. Because it undermines CB policy and leads to hyper inflation and ruining the economy. Some CBs are legally proscribed from engaging in helicopter money for good reason. > There have to be liabilities to it. You mean balance sheet liabilities? None. The money is recorded as an asset "receivable" on CB balance sheet. It does add up :D Japan has been doing it for a decade (for the wrong reasons unfortunately). For layman overview; most mainstream financial news sites like the FT and Bloomberg do a good job: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-05/how-long-feared-monetary-finance-becomes-mainstream-quicktake https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-05/how-long-... https://www.ft.com/content/fd1d35c4-7804-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a987 https://www.ft.com/content/fd1d35c4-7804-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a...

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago

> and to love Keynes Debts get repaid, one way (with repayment) or another (welshing and never being trusted again)

noir-york 6y ago
Yes, of course. The point is that Keynesian macro and appropriate tax policies are a much better policy response than austerity can ever be. The UK has the advantage of printing its own currency so it can engage in monetary financing if the situation warrants it; an option not available to Euro economies.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  > are a much better policy response than austerity can ever be. I have my serious doubts. Spending large amounts of money wisely or blowing it wildly can look the same (HS2?) but the outcome is different. > The UK has the advantage of printing its own currency I'm not an economist - how does this work? Is this any different from a person getting indebted on a credit card? Honest question.
  - noir-york 6y ago
    > I have my serious doubts. Spending large amounts of money wisely or blowing it wildly can look the same (HS2?) but the outcome is different. Austerity takes money out of a contracting economy making the situation worse, creating a vicious cycle, and whats worse hollowing out govt services (NHS, policing, education). Austerity is dangerous on a number of levels. > Is this any different from a person getting indebted on a credit card? Honest question. Yes, its completely different. Debt creates a liability, it needs to be paid back. Monetary financing - aka helicopter money - is precisely the opposite. The central bank "prints" money: it can be credited to the govt's account, or the CB can directly credit household bank accounts with money created from thin air. No new liabilities are created. The problems with monetary financing is that it can get addictive; its use outside of situations of extreme economic distress is the biggest risk with its use.
    - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
      I dunno about austerity. Seems the way it was done in the uk was wrong in that most of the weight fell on the poorest. Your description of helicopter money sounds wrong - if it's so great why not do it more often. Inflationary at the very least. There have to be liabilities to it. It doesn't add up, do you have any references? TIA
      - noir-york 6y ago
        > Your description of helicopter money sounds wrong - if it's so great why not do it more often. Because it undermines CB policy and leads to hyper inflation and ruining the economy. Some CBs are legally proscribed from engaging in helicopter money for good reason. > There have to be liabilities to it. You mean balance sheet liabilities? None. The money is recorded as an asset "receivable" on CB balance sheet. It does add up :D Japan has been doing it for a decade (for the wrong reasons unfortunately). For layman overview; most mainstream financial news sites like the FT and Bloomberg do a good job: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-05/how-long-feared-monetary-finance-becomes-mainstream-quicktake https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-05/how-long-... https://www.ft.com/content/fd1d35c4-7804-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a987 https://www.ft.com/content/fd1d35c4-7804-11ea-9840-1b8019d9a...