6 ms·

Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel t

by evgen 6y ago

Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel ties) and eat it too (none of those dirty foreigners, except when we need them to staff the NHS during a pandemic and then only with gritted teeth.) The Tory government is much like the Trump administration in that they have roped themselves to an angry, bitter rump to achieve power and can't quite figure out how to extricate themselves without humiliation. There is no exit that puts the UK in a better position because it imagines itself to have power and influence that it does not possess. Personally, I am now resigned to looking forward to no-deal Brexit so that the midlands, coastal fishing villages that should have ceased to exist decades ago, and rural counties can get the royal economic fucking they deserve. Boris somehow thinks that by sucking up to Trump he is going to get some magic trade deal to save himself, but any deal needs to get through the US House and they are not even going to bother putting it on the calendar. Nothing will happen until the start of the Biden administration and since they will be focused on domestic issues and repairing frayed foreign ties in this first 100 days you are looking at nothing for at least a year. The UK is so hosed it is almost funny, but at least it will drive down London property prices...

noir-york 6y ago
> Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel ties) and eat it too It is standard negotiating OP by both sides. Just take a look at the Troika / Greece negotiations: breakthroughs come at the very last minute. Extending the transition period merely lengthens the phoney negotiations. > There is no exit that puts the UK in a better position because it imagines itself to have power and influence that it does not possess. Viewed through an economic lens, Brexit will do damadge, certainly in the short term. Medium to long term depends on whether the Tories learn drop austerity and to love Keynes . It seems Sunak does, going by short record so far. Viewed through a political / sovereignty lens the argument for Brexit is on a stronger footing.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  > and to love Keynes Debts get repaid, one way (with repayment) or another (welshing and never being trusted again)
  - noir-york 6y ago
    Yes, of course. The point is that Keynesian macro and appropriate tax policies are a much better policy response than austerity can ever be. The UK has the advantage of printing its own currency so it can engage in monetary financing if the situation warrants it; an option not available to Euro economies.
    - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
      > are a much better policy response than austerity can ever be. I have my serious doubts. Spending large amounts of money wisely or blowing it wildly can look the same (HS2?) but the outcome is different. > The UK has the advantage of printing its own currency I'm not an economist - how does this work? Is this any different from a person getting indebted on a credit card? Honest question.
      - noir-york 6y ago
        > I have my serious doubts. Spending large amounts of money wisely or blowing it wildly can look the same (HS2?) but the outcome is different. Austerity takes money out of a contracting economy making the situation worse, creating a vicious cycle, and whats worse hollowing out govt services (NHS, policing, education). Austerity is dangerous on a number of levels. > Is this any different from a person getting indebted on a credit card? Honest question. Yes, its completely different. Debt creates a liability, it needs to be paid back. Monetary financing - aka helicopter money - is precisely the opposite. The central bank "prints" money: it can be credited to the govt's account, or the CB can directly credit household bank accounts with money created from thin air. No new liabilities are created. The problems with monetary financing is that it can get addictive; its use outside of situations of extreme economic distress is the biggest risk with its use.

by evgen 6y ago

noir-york 6y ago

> Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel ties) and eat it too It is standard negotiating OP by both sides. Just take a look at the Troika / Greece negotiations: breakthroughs come at the very last minute. Extending the transition period merely lengthens the phoney negotiations. > There is no exit that puts the UK in a better position because it imagines itself to have power and influence that it does not possess. Viewed through an economic lens, Brexit will do damadge, certainly in the short term. Medium to long term depends on whether the Tories learn drop austerity and to love Keynes . It seems Sunak does, going by short record so far. Viewed through a political / sovereignty lens the argument for Brexit is on a stronger footing.

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
> and to love Keynes Debts get repaid, one way (with repayment) or another (welshing and never being trusted again)
- noir-york 6y ago
  Yes, of course. The point is that Keynesian macro and appropriate tax policies are a much better policy response than austerity can ever be. The UK has the advantage of printing its own currency so it can engage in monetary financing if the situation warrants it; an option not available to Euro economies.
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    > are a much better policy response than austerity can ever be. I have my serious doubts. Spending large amounts of money wisely or blowing it wildly can look the same (HS2?) but the outcome is different. > The UK has the advantage of printing its own currency I'm not an economist - how does this work? Is this any different from a person getting indebted on a credit card? Honest question.
    - noir-york 6y ago
      > I have my serious doubts. Spending large amounts of money wisely or blowing it wildly can look the same (HS2?) but the outcome is different. Austerity takes money out of a contracting economy making the situation worse, creating a vicious cycle, and whats worse hollowing out govt services (NHS, policing, education). Austerity is dangerous on a number of levels. > Is this any different from a person getting indebted on a credit card? Honest question. Yes, its completely different. Debt creates a liability, it needs to be paid back. Monetary financing - aka helicopter money - is precisely the opposite. The central bank "prints" money: it can be credited to the govt's account, or the CB can directly credit household bank accounts with money created from thin air. No new liabilities are created. The problems with monetary financing is that it can get addictive; its use outside of situations of extreme economic distress is the biggest risk with its use.