5 ms·

Everyone observing the topic knew this 2 years ago, but that's first time someone important said it out loud.

by akerro 6y ago

Izkata 6y ago
Yeah, I'm in the US and only have relatively vague knowledge from some youtubers, and my response to this title was along the lines of "well, duh". From what I remember the terms set by the EU would've put the UK in a worse position than what caused Brexit in the first place, making people steadily lean more and more towards a "just get it over with, no-deal Brexit".
- StavrosK 6y ago
  > From what I remember the terms set by the EU would've put the UK in a worse position than what caused Brexit in the first place They don't have to be better than what caused the Brexit, they have to be better than a no-deal Brexit. Why would they expect to get better treatment by leaving than by staying?
  - Izkata 6y ago
    Like I said it's vague (and as OP said, from a year or two ago), but I think it included restrictions on non-EU trade that were worse than no-deal.
    - thu2111 6y ago
      You're correct. So far every proposal by the EU is actually worse than just cancelling it and staying a member. The EU's position can be boiled down like this: if you're geographically in or close to Europe, you must submit to total control by the EU Commission and its courts or be frozen out of all intra-European collaboration completely. Any attempt at compromise just results in them starting to talk about cherries and cakes. It's been like that for years. This is a problem because the EU is not a democratic body. There's a "parliament" but its members can't actually change EU law, and at any rate, a single parliament for all of Europe works about as well as you'd expect. For them to issue ultimatums to European populations of the form "submit entirely or we'll force other Europeans to shun you" is totalitarian and should be raising massive alarm bells around the world. UK today, but it could be your country tomorrow.
- Someone 6y ago
  I think “terms set by the EU” is framing. One could also call it “terms negotiated between the EU and the UK”, and I think that’s closer to the truth. The UK’s position “we want to keep free trade, but don’t want to abide to the rules that go with it, and there definitely can’t be a border between the UK and Ireland in Northern Ireland, but there must be one between Europe and the UK” won elections at home, but they never could have expected the EU to accept them.
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    There's some weird delusory arrogance amongst BoJo and some large chunk of conservatives (and some chunk of the electorate) that we're still special and a world power. We're not, haven't been for a while. Being british is not the magic incantation it once was. People need to grow up. - a brit.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    It's the opposite. The EU doesn't negotiate. That's why the talks have gone nowhere. It's actually the EU that wants talks to fail, as made obvious by the recent switcheroo over a Canada-style deal and their refusal to consider any technological approach to the NI border. At the start, Barnier's "negotiation" consisted of a series of demands of the form "after leaving, why don't you continue to obey us in all respects, except without any representation and oh, keep paying us lots of money: the only alternative is a Canada style free trade deal". He proposed this knowing Theresa May felt a simple Canada style deal wasn't acceptable. BoJo replaced May and the first act after the leadership change was to go back to the EU and say - OK, we've thought about it and we'll take the Canada style deal. Guess what? Suddenly Barnier decided actually a Canada style deal wasn't on the table after all. This, after years of using it as an example of the loosest possible outcome. Now the EU invented a new rule, that this kind of loose trade deal is only available to countries geographically far away. Why? Because screw Brexit, that's why. There's literally no justification for this. As a Brit I've come to hold the EU in absolute contempt. It isn't interested in any kind of reasonable post-Brexit relationship. It's gambling everything on an attempt to crush British independence completely. At this point the EU's position is simply: stay in the EU or we won't work together on anything, anywhere at all. That's unacceptable. Time to go.
- evgen 6y ago
  Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel ties) and eat it too (none of those dirty foreigners, except when we need them to staff the NHS during a pandemic and then only with gritted teeth.) The Tory government is much like the Trump administration in that they have roped themselves to an angry, bitter rump to achieve power and can't quite figure out how to extricate themselves without humiliation. There is no exit that puts the UK in a better position because it imagines itself to have power and influence that it does not possess. Personally, I am now resigned to looking forward to no-deal Brexit so that the midlands, coastal fishing villages that should have ceased to exist decades ago, and rural counties can get the royal economic fucking they deserve. Boris somehow thinks that by sucking up to Trump he is going to get some magic trade deal to save himself, but any deal needs to get through the US House and they are not even going to bother putting it on the calendar. Nothing will happen until the start of the Biden administration and since they will be focused on domestic issues and repairing frayed foreign ties in this first 100 days you are looking at nothing for at least a year. The UK is so hosed it is almost funny, but at least it will drive down London property prices...
  - noir-york 6y ago
    > Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel ties) and eat it too It is standard negotiating OP by both sides. Just take a look at the Troika / Greece negotiations: breakthroughs come at the very last minute. Extending the transition period merely lengthens the phoney negotiations. > There is no exit that puts the UK in a better position because it imagines itself to have power and influence that it does not possess. Viewed through an economic lens, Brexit will do damadge, certainly in the short term. Medium to long term depends on whether the Tories learn drop austerity and to love Keynes . It seems Sunak does, going by short record so far. Viewed through a political / sovereignty lens the argument for Brexit is on a stronger footing.
    - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
      > and to love Keynes Debts get repaid, one way (with repayment) or another (welshing and never being trusted again)

Everyone observing the topic knew this 2 years ago, but that's first time someone important said it out loud.

by akerro 6y ago

Everyone observing the topic knew this 2 years ago, but that's first time someone important said it out loud.

Yeah, I'm in the US and only have relatively vague knowledge from some youtubers, and my response to this title was along the lines of "well, duh". From what I remember the terms set by the EU would've put the UK in a worse position than what caused Brexit in the first place, making people steadily lean more and more towards a "just get it over with, no-deal Brexit".

StavrosK 6y ago
> From what I remember the terms set by the EU would've put the UK in a worse position than what caused Brexit in the first place They don't have to be better than what caused the Brexit, they have to be better than a no-deal Brexit. Why would they expect to get better treatment by leaving than by staying?
- Izkata 6y ago
  Like I said it's vague (and as OP said, from a year or two ago), but I think it included restrictions on non-EU trade that were worse than no-deal.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    You're correct. So far every proposal by the EU is actually worse than just cancelling it and staying a member. The EU's position can be boiled down like this: if you're geographically in or close to Europe, you must submit to total control by the EU Commission and its courts or be frozen out of all intra-European collaboration completely. Any attempt at compromise just results in them starting to talk about cherries and cakes. It's been like that for years. This is a problem because the EU is not a democratic body. There's a "parliament" but its members can't actually change EU law, and at any rate, a single parliament for all of Europe works about as well as you'd expect. For them to issue ultimatums to European populations of the form "submit entirely or we'll force other Europeans to shun you" is totalitarian and should be raising massive alarm bells around the world. UK today, but it could be your country tomorrow.
Someone 6y ago
I think “terms set by the EU” is framing. One could also call it “terms negotiated between the EU and the UK”, and I think that’s closer to the truth. The UK’s position “we want to keep free trade, but don’t want to abide to the rules that go with it, and there definitely can’t be a border between the UK and Ireland in Northern Ireland, but there must be one between Europe and the UK” won elections at home, but they never could have expected the EU to accept them.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  There's some weird delusory arrogance amongst BoJo and some large chunk of conservatives (and some chunk of the electorate) that we're still special and a world power. We're not, haven't been for a while. Being british is not the magic incantation it once was. People need to grow up. - a brit.
- thu2111 6y ago
  It's the opposite. The EU doesn't negotiate. That's why the talks have gone nowhere. It's actually the EU that wants talks to fail, as made obvious by the recent switcheroo over a Canada-style deal and their refusal to consider any technological approach to the NI border. At the start, Barnier's "negotiation" consisted of a series of demands of the form "after leaving, why don't you continue to obey us in all respects, except without any representation and oh, keep paying us lots of money: the only alternative is a Canada style free trade deal". He proposed this knowing Theresa May felt a simple Canada style deal wasn't acceptable. BoJo replaced May and the first act after the leadership change was to go back to the EU and say - OK, we've thought about it and we'll take the Canada style deal. Guess what? Suddenly Barnier decided actually a Canada style deal wasn't on the table after all. This, after years of using it as an example of the loosest possible outcome. Now the EU invented a new rule, that this kind of loose trade deal is only available to countries geographically far away. Why? Because screw Brexit, that's why. There's literally no justification for this. As a Brit I've come to hold the EU in absolute contempt. It isn't interested in any kind of reasonable post-Brexit relationship. It's gambling everything on an attempt to crush British independence completely. At this point the EU's position is simply: stay in the EU or we won't work together on anything, anywhere at all. That's unacceptable. Time to go.
evgen 6y ago
Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel ties) and eat it too (none of those dirty foreigners, except when we need them to staff the NHS during a pandemic and then only with gritted teeth.) The Tory government is much like the Trump administration in that they have roped themselves to an angry, bitter rump to achieve power and can't quite figure out how to extricate themselves without humiliation. There is no exit that puts the UK in a better position because it imagines itself to have power and influence that it does not possess. Personally, I am now resigned to looking forward to no-deal Brexit so that the midlands, coastal fishing villages that should have ceased to exist decades ago, and rural counties can get the royal economic fucking they deserve. Boris somehow thinks that by sucking up to Trump he is going to get some magic trade deal to save himself, but any deal needs to get through the US House and they are not even going to bother putting it on the calendar. Nothing will happen until the start of the Biden administration and since they will be focused on domestic issues and repairing frayed foreign ties in this first 100 days you are looking at nothing for at least a year. The UK is so hosed it is almost funny, but at least it will drive down London property prices...
- noir-york 6y ago
  > Interesting that you seem to have come to a conclusion that is basically the opposite of reality. The UK wants to have its cake (benefits of trade and travel ties) and eat it too It is standard negotiating OP by both sides. Just take a look at the Troika / Greece negotiations: breakthroughs come at the very last minute. Extending the transition period merely lengthens the phoney negotiations. > There is no exit that puts the UK in a better position because it imagines itself to have power and influence that it does not possess. Viewed through an economic lens, Brexit will do damadge, certainly in the short term. Medium to long term depends on whether the Tories learn drop austerity and to love Keynes . It seems Sunak does, going by short record so far. Viewed through a political / sovereignty lens the argument for Brexit is on a stronger footing.
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    > and to love Keynes Debts get repaid, one way (with repayment) or another (welshing and never being trusted again)