In the long run, maybe. But I certainly think it's plausible that a startup could out-develop Google in a relatively unexplored area over the course of a year

In the long run, maybe. But I certainly think it's plausible that a startup could out-develop Google in a relatively unexplored area over the course of a year or two—and that's all they need, since their exit strategy is (presumably) getting bought out, not IPOing.