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I am suprised who weak doctors are in Math! You don't need to be a Math genius to grasp this: initially, they were testing symptomatic people, mostly people wit
by nikolay 6y ago
I am suprised who weak doctors are in Math! You don't need to be a Math genius to grasp this: initially, they were testing symptomatic people, mostly people with high fever, and we know not all develop fever. So, now, testing has opened up to more people, i.e. asymptomatic and with mild symptoms. It's beyond obvious that CFR will drop! CFR will always drop with time - unless the virus mutates and becomes more severe. Also, many dilute the mortality with some unreliable antibody tests, which also are not randomized samples. In the Balkans, the antibody tests show very low infection rate, yet, the epidemic has effectively stopped - more than 2 weeks after the restrictions got removed. Obviously, the Summer weather is helping, but this also means that, for sure, there will be a second wave in the Fall as infections are still growing and in some areas they are literally just in the beginning.
- nextos 6y agoI think it's also for evolutionary reasons. A virus that is milder survives better and spreads more. A virus that kills the host, or in this case makes it sick so that it self-isolates, has lower fitness. The so-called Spanish flu pandemic (not Spanish at all, probably from Asia as well) went this route. It became very mild and the pandemic vanished quickly after killing millions.
- T-A 6y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/31/second-wave-coronavirus-uk-winter-peak-covid/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/31/second-wave-coro...
- perl4ever 6y agoPosting only links or references can leave it unclear if you are agreeing, disagreeing, clarifying, or what.
- yellowapple 6y agoDoes it matter? As long as the information is factual, it is useful. Not every comment must take some side in some imagined argument or debate.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- BeatLeJuce 6y agoWith its long incubation period and asymptomatic spreading, I don't see how sars-cov2 would benefit by becoming weaker.bthwre is little evolutionary pressure for it
- xiphias2 6y agoThe weaker the virus, the less symptoms it has. If people who feel sick stay home, it gives less aggressive stains the chance to infect more people. On the other hand if infected people with strong symptoms infect others in hospitals, the opposit happens (that's how the Spanish flu first got more deadly).
- CyanLite4 6y agoHIV, Lassa virus, and Ebola hasn’t mutated in something milder. If anything, NextStrain has shown that the mutation rate for SARS-CoV2 is about 5x slower than seasonal influenza.
- dwaltrip 6y agoThis is a possibility, but we need hard evidence before we can say it is happening with the current coronavirus.