6 ms·
As the global diagnoses go up, the daily death rate is declining, so this makes sense.
by pwned1 6y ago
As the global diagnoses go up, the daily death rate is declining, so this makes sense.
- neatze 6y agoVariables changed; social distancing is in effect, medical field is much more effective then it was two month ago. But hey lets say magically virus is changed. In what way it makes sense to you ?
- dougmwne 6y agoViruses mutate. There is a selection pressure for them to become more contagious but less incapacitating since sick people in bed do not infect others. It is possible, though not guaranteed that common strains of COVID could become less deadly over time. That said, public health decisions should be based on the science and not wishful thinking or what one doctor said.
- neatze 6y agoScientists use data from here: https://nextstrain.org/ https://nextstrain.org/ to make such claim, to best of my understanding, there no-such claim.
- joyj2nd 6y agoThe directed evolution of a virus, as mentioned, to become more invective but less lethal can be explained by game theory and is backed up by experience. But is is not a law, could also go otherwise around.
- neatze 6y agoI do not dispute such possibilities, there is also possibility it will mutate into flying AIDS. The process is about complex systems interactions and claim that it is attributed slowly to virus mutation without such evidence is outright reckless, unprofessional, and unscientific.
- joyj2nd 6y agoI don't care what you dispute or not. It is unlikely that you are qualified to make any statements about this or that you have ever worked in genetics on a high level. It is Biology 101: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_virulence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_virulence
- neatze 6y agoNot sure if you have enough cognitive abilities to understand this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
- joyj2nd 6y agoYou just made a statement about a field of science where you seem to have zero educational background and understanding and described something as "without such evidence is outright reckless, unprofessional, and unscientific" and I called you out on it with some Biology 101 information with a Wiki Link. Where is your problem?
- neatze 6y agoMy fist problem is that; you did not refute what I stated, but instead choice to attack my experience. While I am not medically trained, I studied genetic optimization extensively, most importantly phenotypes effective behavior within individual phenotype cells; functions, locations, and connections. My second problem is that; you linked article without any explanation how my statement is false in relation to linked article. My third problem is that; I just don't understand what in my statement is so false that grants attacking my experience, in simple analogy; in case 5 years old tells you 2+2=4, clearly his age is irrelevant for what he is saying to be true. Finally, I explain what I said in original statement; if you have x, y, z variables claiming without evidence that x is only responsible for output value, and without providing evidence why y and z is not responsible is reckless, unprofessional, and unscientific in another words it is just speculation. Note that article ended with “It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”
- DennisP 6y agoYou're completely right, but just to highlight that it's "not guaranteed," the 1918 flu started out fairly mild and then mutated into a much deadlier strain. (I'm reading John Barry's The Great Influenza right now.)
- pwned1 6y agoWho said anything about magic?
- neatze 6y agoIn my perspective it is literally binary decision; use scientific statement to explain phenomena or magic.
- BiteCode_dev 6y agoClearly you aren't a frontend dev.
- neatze 6y agoI am not sure what this has to do with topic discussed at hand, but I guess I am not, only frontend I developed was equities market Level II data window with support for hotkeys and algorithmic trading.
- BiteCode_dev 6y agoIt's a joke about science and magic.
- neatze 6y agooh, I just did not connected with a joke. We had situation where packets dropped magically, for two weeks it was very stressful situation to say the least, because ~10 people could not pin point where it was happening. It was not magic it was a fucking L2 switch in a server room, that I broke to tiny pieces, yelled at boss: "we need more expensive equipment". End story no one questioned equipment cost thereafter.
- perl4ever 6y agoI tend to think of "magic" as having the connotation of something working for no obvious reason, not something breaking for no obvious reason.
- matvore 6y agoAccording to Google Translate, in Italian, "potenza" means strength, ..., potency I wonder if the doctors in the article used this word to describe the loss of potency, but the media and translators are equivocating this to mean "strength" (which is a more intrinsic quality, and suggests a mutation). My first guess was that because summer is starting, people are getting more Vitamin D, and this is making the virus less effective. Alternatively (as others have stated in this topic), the virus could mutate to spread more effectively but lose its strength on individual people, and this would still be considered an evolutionary advantage.
- deelowe 6y agoAs testing becomes more readily available, we'll catch more and more people who are asymptomatic and/or have mild cases. This is going to reduce the CFR. Many epidemiologists predicted this and have stated that they think the IFR could be as much as an order of magnitude lower than what the CFRs were back in March.
- bsder 6y agonextstrain.org disagrees. There doesn't seem to be any significant mutational difference between the Italian virus clades than anywhere else.