9 ms·

In marginal decisions, favour action over inaction

146 points by ChrisHardman29 6y ago

nraynaud 6y ago
Agency has to be remembered tho, your decisions impact others, and change that is received is generally less well tolerated than change that has been initiated. It's real in teams where the management decides on change and underlings can only agree or not.
- ChrisHardman29 6y ago
  Very good point - this study relates to the personal impacts but perhaps not to decisions that impact many people and run counter to what they would individually have decided.
powersnail 6y ago
Won’t this create a new margin—-slightly shifted in favor of action?
nabla9 6y ago
The study itself looks like it's well done, result is statistically highly significant, but it was still just an internet study where people were self reporting. All you end with is suggestive evidence not be taken too seriously.
- JacobAldridge 6y ago
  > it was still just an internet study where people were self reporting And I wonder whether it would largely have been people contemplating a decision because they were dissatisfied/ unhappy with the status quo? My immediate thought it to Nassim Taleb’s via negativa - not necessarily any more well researched, but the view that in uncertainty do nothing or indeed do less to create a better outcome. That inaction is to be preferred where change and action has no clear benefit.
  - ChrisHardman29 6y ago
    Interesting point. I haven't read that but maybe the appropriate approach depends on the situation / level of uncertainty. For example, in situations where we have little clarity on the options or what the outcomes will look like, it perhaps makes sense to resist any urge to take action because we can't make any sensible comparison between the change and the status quo (and 'action bias' may be more of a factor). In other situations, like leaving one job to go to another, we have a better (though definitely imperfect) idea of what the options / outcomes look like and so may be better placed to make a comparison (in which case loss aversion may be more important). This is just a theory though - I may be totally wrong!
- ChrisHardman29 6y ago
  I agree that (like most studies) it could be more robust but what I think is more interesting is the underlying explanation (which, like any theory, may not be correct). Making complex decisions is notoriously challenging - e.g. you are comparing factors across different scales and timeframes (see the book 'Farsighted' by Steven Johnson) - and no single rule should be wholly relied upon, but I think that being aware of the potential impacts of loss aversion / status quo bias during the process can only be helpful.
ccvannorman 6y ago
in aggregate, this data makes sense For people with chronic ADD who struggle to finish projects, you may easily fall on the other side of this line ..
twic 6y ago
Am i right in thinking that the study shows that those who took action were happier, but not that they were actually better off? Does it attempt to account for a bias towards rationalising your actions? In reality, the alternative to taking action is usually not simply taking no action, it is collecting more information and then deciding whether to take action. Does the study get at this at all?
- ChrisHardman29 6y ago
  It does address the potential role of a number of biases, including self-deception / rationalising. As a result it compares responses against third party assessments (finding little evidence of self-deception being a major factor). I agree that decisions aren't typically binary but I suppose even if you are actively researching after 6 months, for the purposes of this comparison you have remained with the status quo.
- brudgers 6y ago
  To me, happier is the best form of better off. YMMV.
- whiddershins 6y ago
  What is the important distinction between happier and better off?
andersource 6y ago
Not based on any sources, but I believe that these results say more about our subjective experience of decisions (specifically in situations of action vs. inaction) rather than the actual likelihood of outcomes. In other words, I'm not convinced that statistically in a situation of action / inaction an action is always more likely to lead to a more favourable outcome, but it is more likely to be later considered in a more positive light. Some of the reasons for that would be: * Empowered sense of agency * Taking action requires resources which would be "wasted" if the action is later considered the wrong choice, which potentially creates rationalization to avoid that (the sunk cost fallacy) * When you take an action to change a status quo you've probably prepared for the expected negative aspects of the change, diminishing their effect * When you stay inactive the potential to act is always there nagging In purely personal decisions the subjective experience might actually be more important than the real outcome (barring extreme circumstances), so taking an action might indeed be the right choice regardless. However, I do believe that these effects are also present in decisions that affect others (organizations, families etc.), in which the outcome is more important, and also affected others don't share the decision-maker's perspective and may subjectively experience the decision completely differently as a result.
- gnicholas 6y ago
  Excellent point. There’s research showing that people that make irrevocable decisions are happier than people who make the same decision but are told they can change their mind later. Sticking with the status who is like making a revocable decision not to make a change, where as deciding to do something else is a less-irrevocable decision. https://www.npr.org/2019/08/30/755850405/you-2-0-decide-already https://www.npr.org/2019/08/30/755850405/you-2-0-decide-alre...
  - andersource 6y ago
    Very interesting, thanks!
LatteLazy 6y ago
Counter point... There's a famous study about what happens when medical professions (eg cardiologists) have major conferences. The juniors and non specialists are left running the wards for a week or so. And survival rates go up not down. The leading theory is that more junior doctors are more likely to wait to and see while seniors intervene and trust in the skills. But their skills aren't as good as they think for the marginal patient... https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530032-100-death-rate-drops-when-top-heart-surgeons-are-away/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530032-100-death-ra...
- medymed 6y ago
  The other leading theory is that major (non emergent) operations and management changes (like starting chemotherapy) will often be postponed until the senior physicians get back.
  - taeric 6y ago
    That sounds easily testable in the data.
    - Cpoll 6y ago
      I suspect that's harder to collect. Deaths are probably public/census data, but details about individual cases are subject to confidentiality.
      - yellowapple 6y ago
        Should be possible to anonymize the data, no?
        Cpoll 6y ago
        I'm sure it is, but it's more difficult than just collecting mortality numbers, and therefore not easy to control for.
      - 6y ago
brudgers 6y ago
siver's alternative: "Hell Yeah! or No". https://sivers.org/hellyeah https://sivers.org/hellyeah
- sukilot 6y ago
  That's assuming you don't want to stop what you are currently doing.
asymmetric 6y ago
The book “Transformative Experiences” by LA Paul argues that it’s impossible to rationally decide what to do when faced with a life-altering (aka epistemically transformative) decision, because you have no way of knowing the person you’ll be after the choice, and what their preferences will be (“what it’s like to be them”)
- viburnum 6y ago
  What LA Paul takes from this is that since you can’t predict what will happen after a transformative experience, the question you’re left with is, “Am I the kind of person who wants to find out what it will be like to have kids / get married / move to Borneo / etc?”
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Sure it's possible. From evidence in your life of previous adaptations. You could be a very adaptable person, and very likely to be happy after another adaptation. Sounds like LA Paul wrote some sort of soft self-help book, to be throwing words around like 'impossible'.
  - the_bowme 6y ago
    Being adaptable doesn't tell you at all whether it is a good decision, or predict whether you should make it. At the limit no decision affects you at all and all decisions are indifferent.
- cableshaft 6y ago
  Someone work on an invention that can show you this, and release it right away, please :)
- artsyca 6y ago
  The great leap of faith -- you have to trust in the transformation and that you won't remember who you used to be anyway Try getting a tattoo for an example of this Edit; it's very right you can't decide rationally and that's why we're emotional beings but on the other hand given you have already done it once you emerge on the other side chances are you'll be pleased If you don't want to get a tattoo try wearing professional clothing to work for a month Those who don't believe in magic will never find it -- Roald Dahl
mprovost 6y ago
This [0] is another take on the same research that sums it up better: "If you’re genuinely unsure whether to quit your job or break up, then you probably should." I was quite influenced by this post when deciding to switch jobs - in the end I figured that if I couldn't make up my mind then I should go for the change. So far it's worked out, but of course you can't ever go back and know whether you would have been happier staying put. Life isn't a series of randomised trials. I think the fact that you're considering a new job (or a new partner) tells you that at least some part of you wants to make a change though. [0] https://80000hours.org/2018/08/randomised-experiment-if-youre-really-unsure-whether-to-quit-your-job-or-break-up-you-really-probably-should/ https://80000hours.org/2018/08/randomised-experiment-if-your...
- paulryanrogers 6y ago
  Some may be more prone to thinking the grass is always greener somewhere else. There's a risk if one job or partner hops too often
  - cableshaft 6y ago
    And if you've made a commitment to your partner, you probably should try to talk and figure some way to improve things with them first before jumping ship (unless there's some sort of serious abuse going on). Having that talk can be really difficult, though. There are very few jobs where you've made any lasting commitment to nowadays. They can lay you off at the drop of a hat for any reason whatsoever, so you shouldn't give them anything more than a notice of you're leaving out of courtesy.
- treeman79 6y ago
  Had this happen a few times. Once was a complete regret. Took 3 years to find a decent working situation again. 3 other times I had no regrets and was glad I switched. Keeping my skills marketable is a big part of it.
- sytelus 6y ago
  I have lived by quote “change is better” and for jobs it has almost always worked out because fortunately there are plenty of equal or better jobs in IT. But I am not sure this would work out for an aeronautical engineer at Boeing in same way, for example, given there are so few well paying jobs in that field. Similarly I am not sure this would work out great if you were thinking about divorce and had kids. In those situations, much more rationalization than simple “always make change” directive is necessary.
f0ok 6y ago
Overall, and depending on context, I think this is a moot point. Inaction is as important as action and can be considered a different action in itself. What some call inaction is not necessary a state of being inactive, but simply observing and analyzing the outcome longer, while focusing efforts elsewhere. Maybe "being on the fence" or staying in a frame of doubt and uncertainty for too long, without developing future steps for a given plan could really be considered disruptive inaction.
code-faster 6y ago
This only holds in convex payoff distributions where risk has a positive expected value. In concave payoff distributions, where risk has a negative expected value, inaction is favored.
- sytelus 6y ago
  Why this should depend on convexity at all? The study’s premise is marginal benefit, i.e., estimated risk difference is either minimal or perhaps too poorly known to call it out as marginal. If it was known to be positive or negative, action should be obvious. I am not defending this study because authors seem to rely heavily on survey where participants satisfaction measured only after 6 months. Typically, people tend to comfort themselves in short term for making big decisions such as divorce or job change even though in longer run they may higher accumulated regret. Economists need to develop good models instead of just keep doing surveys.
  - code-faster 6y ago
    Immeasurable model risk When convex this is good When concave this is bad So if all else is equal, the convexity breaks the tie.
  - sukilot 6y ago
    > Typically, people tend to comfort themselves in short term for making big decisions such as divorce or job change What about "buyer's remorse" and "honeymoon period"?
deleted 6y ago
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keiferski 6y ago
This can really go both ways, which makes it complicated. I feel like contemporary human beings have a massive bias toward action, often to their own detriment. "Do nothing and wait" is often a good piece of advice, but I can't see any political leader, entrepreneur, or 'thought leader' advocating for that. Patience seems to have lost out to instant gratification and the desire to do something, anything. ..those who had opted for the choice that involved making a change (as opposed to sticking with the status quo) were more satisfied with their decision and generally happier. If you study history, specifically military history, you'll see the "be patient" strategy employed successfully (and ignored, unsuccessfully) quite often. Fabius defeated Hannibal by essentially out-waiting him. [1] One of the Thirty-Six Stratagems from ancient Chinese warfare is Wait at leisure while the enemy labors. [2] So I would amend the advice to be, In marginal decisions, don't be rash, but don't over-analyze. Wait for the right moment, then act. The example cited in the article could also just be retroactive rationalization. I.e. people want to rationalize their decisions as being the right one. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_strategy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_strategy 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six_Stratagems#Wait_at_leisure_while_the_enemy_labors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six_Stratagems#Wait_at_...
- phkahler 6y ago
  Timing a specific action is different than not taking an action. Unless you lie to yourself that you're waiting for the right time in order to not take action. ;-)
karmakaze 6y ago
> The findings may be explained by 'loss aversion', a cognitive bias that causes potential losses to be weighed more heavily than potential gains (the ratio is somewhere around 2:1, meaning that most people will feel comfortable with a decision only when the likely gains are double the likely losses). As a result, in situations where the benefits and drawbacks of making a change appear to be evenly matched, it may be sensible to take action. This loss aversion ratio of 2:1 is an average or other. How do you find your own ratio? It's the only one that matters. I'm always switching tracks and on to the next new (or old and new to me) thing. A better reason is most people toward the ends of their lives regret the things they didn't do, rarely any of the things they've done. Do more things. Change is good.
- ChrisHardman29 6y ago
  Happiness or wellbeing are such difficult concepts to measure and compare that I don't think you can ever arrive at a specific, generally-applicable ratio. But that doesn't mean that being aware of loss aversion (and the way it may be shaping your assessment of a decision) isn't helpful in reaching better outcomes. I agree re regretting inaction. There are lots of nuances in how this seems to work as well - see https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Femo0000326 https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Femo0000326.
karaterobot 6y ago
> ... whenever you cannot decide what you should do, choose the action that represents a change, rather than continuing the status quo. As a heuristic, this is kind of rough: what does it mean to say you "cannot decide what you should do"? How hard have you tried? If this research was mutated into a piece of folk wisdom, I bet it would be interpreted as advising that "change is preferable, so don't overthink it." But, that would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It's better to make important decisions after getting as much information as possible, and using rational decision-making strategies. So, it's likely always more effective, though more work, to try to push back the boundary of when the word "cannot" becomes applicable than it is to just say "fuck it, let's do this".
tlarkworthy 6y ago
It's the Monty Hall problem effect. When you take an action, you choose from a small set of options. When you stay with the status quo, you are following a Markov chain than has not been narrowed by your choices (which is worse on average).
- smegma2 6y ago
  This sounds wrong to me, what would be the analogue of the door being revealed?
  - ghaff 6y ago
    Yeah, I'm not sure I agree with that. The Monty Haff problem is about changing a choice on the basis of additional information. The point the parent is hinting at which can apply although I'm not prepared to argue for it as a general rule is the following: If you are in a not good situation (and e.g. you're torn about changing your job as an example given in the OP), I can believe that making any reasonable change is better to just plodding along with the status quo. In a similar vein--and I've run into this a bunch with project management--making a decision (any decision!) is often better than a status quo of deferring and studying for longer.
  - tlarkworthy 6y ago
    The door being revealed is time passing and understanding your own needs and what the world provides. The status quo is sticking to a historical choice made with less information. When you consider action today, you use fresh information, but to actually realise that advantage, you need to pick one of the new choices, even though it's outcome is stocastic
    - smegma2 6y ago
      That makes sense, thanks.
KKKKkkkk1 6y ago
What is a marginal decision? Is quitting a job or ending a relationship a marginal decision?
- nostrademons 6y ago
  It's whenever you have that feeling of "I just can't decide between these two options", and don't have a strong feeling either way. Quitting a job or ending a relationship can be a marginal decision, if you're not sure you want to do it. Sometimes you're just fed up with your current employer, or there's an obviously good opportunity available - that's not a marginal decision, that's an easy decision. But sometimes there's an opportunity, but you're not sure you want to take it, but it seems intriguing, but it'd be a big risk, but you wonder if you'll regret not taking it, etc. That's a marginal decision, and the type that the article suggests you should take.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- downerending 6y ago
  Like when your pilot isn't sure there's something wrong with the plane, but just has this feeling that something's not right.
xenocyon 6y ago
Counterpoint: the way people assess decisions after the fact is no more rational than the way people assess them beforehand. Some parents with n children wrestle with the decision of whether to have n+1. You seldom hear regret from people who choose to go ahead with having an additional kid - yet science shows that, in aggregate, people with multiple kids tend to be unhappier than people with just one. In this example, each individual claimed to be happier with choosing 'action' over 'inaction', but in aggregate the action made people unhappier.
ulisesrmzroche 6y ago
Funny how the iChing says exactly the opposite, no matter how many times I flip the e-coins
supernova87a 6y ago
Maybe this has some applicability for personal, individual decisions. But to translate this to larger, more important things, affecting way more people? Take great caution. If you find yourself to be a leader, CEO, president, or whatever, facing really hard, ambiguous decisions, sometimes the right thing is not to act, yet this is very hard to do and resist the temptation to act. We end up disincentivizing leaders from hesitating to act, when that might be the appropriate thing, because it might be seen as weakness or indecision. All too often the bias towards action (for anything but personal decisions) is a quick way to get in a lot of trouble.
ip26 6y ago
This would seem to line up with some old wisdom I heard years ago, where some researcher interviewed elders and found that his subjects regretted chances they had not taken far more than chances they had taken, even if it didn't work out. That idea was a big focus of mine as I tried to get over fear in dating.
nsonha 6y ago
It's not in the title but the goal here is to feel better afterward. It has nohing to do with the statistics of making the better call.
JuliusPullo 6y ago
Of course they are not satisfied. That's why they were considering a life-changing decision, because they were not happy with the status-quo. Duh! —"Levitt found that those who had opted for the choice that involved making a change (as opposed to sticking with the status quo) were more satisfied with their decision and generally happier."

Agency has to be remembered tho, your decisions impact others, and change that is received is generally less well tolerated than change that has been initiated. It's real in teams where the management decides on change and underlings can only agree or not.

ChrisHardman29 6y ago
Very good point - this study relates to the personal impacts but perhaps not to decisions that impact many people and run counter to what they would individually have decided.

powersnail 6y ago

Won’t this create a new margin—-slightly shifted in favor of action?

nabla9 6y ago

The study itself looks like it's well done, result is statistically highly significant, but it was still just an internet study where people were self reporting. All you end with is suggestive evidence not be taken too seriously.

JacobAldridge 6y ago
> it was still just an internet study where people were self reporting And I wonder whether it would largely have been people contemplating a decision because they were dissatisfied/ unhappy with the status quo? My immediate thought it to Nassim Taleb’s via negativa - not necessarily any more well researched, but the view that in uncertainty do nothing or indeed do less to create a better outcome. That inaction is to be preferred where change and action has no clear benefit.
- ChrisHardman29 6y ago
  Interesting point. I haven't read that but maybe the appropriate approach depends on the situation / level of uncertainty. For example, in situations where we have little clarity on the options or what the outcomes will look like, it perhaps makes sense to resist any urge to take action because we can't make any sensible comparison between the change and the status quo (and 'action bias' may be more of a factor). In other situations, like leaving one job to go to another, we have a better (though definitely imperfect) idea of what the options / outcomes look like and so may be better placed to make a comparison (in which case loss aversion may be more important). This is just a theory though - I may be totally wrong!
ChrisHardman29 6y ago
I agree that (like most studies) it could be more robust but what I think is more interesting is the underlying explanation (which, like any theory, may not be correct). Making complex decisions is notoriously challenging - e.g. you are comparing factors across different scales and timeframes (see the book 'Farsighted' by Steven Johnson) - and no single rule should be wholly relied upon, but I think that being aware of the potential impacts of loss aversion / status quo bias during the process can only be helpful.

ccvannorman 6y ago

in aggregate, this data makes sense For people with chronic ADD who struggle to finish projects, you may easily fall on the other side of this line ..

twic 6y ago

Am i right in thinking that the study shows that those who took action were happier, but not that they were actually better off? Does it attempt to account for a bias towards rationalising your actions? In reality, the alternative to taking action is usually not simply taking no action, it is collecting more information and then deciding whether to take action. Does the study get at this at all?

ChrisHardman29 6y ago
It does address the potential role of a number of biases, including self-deception / rationalising. As a result it compares responses against third party assessments (finding little evidence of self-deception being a major factor). I agree that decisions aren't typically binary but I suppose even if you are actively researching after 6 months, for the purposes of this comparison you have remained with the status quo.
brudgers 6y ago
To me, happier is the best form of better off. YMMV.
whiddershins 6y ago
What is the important distinction between happier and better off?

andersource 6y ago

Not based on any sources, but I believe that these results say more about our subjective experience of decisions (specifically in situations of action vs. inaction) rather than the actual likelihood of outcomes. In other words, I'm not convinced that statistically in a situation of action / inaction an action is always more likely to lead to a more favourable outcome, but it is more likely to be later considered in a more positive light. Some of the reasons for that would be: * Empowered sense of agency * Taking action requires resources which would be "wasted" if the action is later considered the wrong choice, which potentially creates rationalization to avoid that (the sunk cost fallacy) * When you take an action to change a status quo you've probably prepared for the expected negative aspects of the change, diminishing their effect * When you stay inactive the potential to act is always there nagging In purely personal decisions the subjective experience might actually be more important than the real outcome (barring extreme circumstances), so taking an action might indeed be the right choice regardless. However, I do believe that these effects are also present in decisions that affect others (organizations, families etc.), in which the outcome is more important, and also affected others don't share the decision-maker's perspective and may subjectively experience the decision completely differently as a result.

gnicholas 6y ago
Excellent point. There’s research showing that people that make irrevocable decisions are happier than people who make the same decision but are told they can change their mind later. Sticking with the status who is like making a revocable decision not to make a change, where as deciding to do something else is a less-irrevocable decision. https://www.npr.org/2019/08/30/755850405/you-2-0-decide-already https://www.npr.org/2019/08/30/755850405/you-2-0-decide-alre...
- andersource 6y ago
  Very interesting, thanks!

LatteLazy 6y ago

Counter point... There's a famous study about what happens when medical professions (eg cardiologists) have major conferences. The juniors and non specialists are left running the wards for a week or so. And survival rates go up not down. The leading theory is that more junior doctors are more likely to wait to and see while seniors intervene and trust in the skills. But their skills aren't as good as they think for the marginal patient... https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530032-100-death-rate-drops-when-top-heart-surgeons-are-away/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530032-100-death-ra...

medymed 6y ago
The other leading theory is that major (non emergent) operations and management changes (like starting chemotherapy) will often be postponed until the senior physicians get back.
- taeric 6y ago
  That sounds easily testable in the data.
  - Cpoll 6y ago
    I suspect that's harder to collect. Deaths are probably public/census data, but details about individual cases are subject to confidentiality.
    - yellowapple 6y ago
      Should be possible to anonymize the data, no?
      - Cpoll 6y ago
        I'm sure it is, but it's more difficult than just collecting mortality numbers, and therefore not easy to control for.
    - 6y ago

brudgers 6y ago

siver's alternative: "Hell Yeah! or No". https://sivers.org/hellyeah https://sivers.org/hellyeah

sukilot 6y ago
That's assuming you don't want to stop what you are currently doing.

asymmetric 6y ago

The book “Transformative Experiences” by LA Paul argues that it’s impossible to rationally decide what to do when faced with a life-altering (aka epistemically transformative) decision, because you have no way of knowing the person you’ll be after the choice, and what their preferences will be (“what it’s like to be them”)

viburnum 6y ago
What LA Paul takes from this is that since you can’t predict what will happen after a transformative experience, the question you’re left with is, “Am I the kind of person who wants to find out what it will be like to have kids / get married / move to Borneo / etc?”
JoeAltmaier 6y ago
Sure it's possible. From evidence in your life of previous adaptations. You could be a very adaptable person, and very likely to be happy after another adaptation. Sounds like LA Paul wrote some sort of soft self-help book, to be throwing words around like 'impossible'.
- the_bowme 6y ago
  Being adaptable doesn't tell you at all whether it is a good decision, or predict whether you should make it. At the limit no decision affects you at all and all decisions are indifferent.
cableshaft 6y ago
Someone work on an invention that can show you this, and release it right away, please :)
artsyca 6y ago
The great leap of faith -- you have to trust in the transformation and that you won't remember who you used to be anyway Try getting a tattoo for an example of this Edit; it's very right you can't decide rationally and that's why we're emotional beings but on the other hand given you have already done it once you emerge on the other side chances are you'll be pleased If you don't want to get a tattoo try wearing professional clothing to work for a month Those who don't believe in magic will never find it -- Roald Dahl

mprovost 6y ago

This [0] is another take on the same research that sums it up better: "If you’re genuinely unsure whether to quit your job or break up, then you probably should." I was quite influenced by this post when deciding to switch jobs - in the end I figured that if I couldn't make up my mind then I should go for the change. So far it's worked out, but of course you can't ever go back and know whether you would have been happier staying put. Life isn't a series of randomised trials. I think the fact that you're considering a new job (or a new partner) tells you that at least some part of you wants to make a change though. [0] https://80000hours.org/2018/08/randomised-experiment-if-youre-really-unsure-whether-to-quit-your-job-or-break-up-you-really-probably-should/ https://80000hours.org/2018/08/randomised-experiment-if-your...

paulryanrogers 6y ago
Some may be more prone to thinking the grass is always greener somewhere else. There's a risk if one job or partner hops too often
- cableshaft 6y ago
  And if you've made a commitment to your partner, you probably should try to talk and figure some way to improve things with them first before jumping ship (unless there's some sort of serious abuse going on). Having that talk can be really difficult, though. There are very few jobs where you've made any lasting commitment to nowadays. They can lay you off at the drop of a hat for any reason whatsoever, so you shouldn't give them anything more than a notice of you're leaving out of courtesy.
treeman79 6y ago
Had this happen a few times. Once was a complete regret. Took 3 years to find a decent working situation again. 3 other times I had no regrets and was glad I switched. Keeping my skills marketable is a big part of it.
sytelus 6y ago
I have lived by quote “change is better” and for jobs it has almost always worked out because fortunately there are plenty of equal or better jobs in IT. But I am not sure this would work out for an aeronautical engineer at Boeing in same way, for example, given there are so few well paying jobs in that field. Similarly I am not sure this would work out great if you were thinking about divorce and had kids. In those situations, much more rationalization than simple “always make change” directive is necessary.

f0ok 6y ago

Overall, and depending on context, I think this is a moot point. Inaction is as important as action and can be considered a different action in itself. What some call inaction is not necessary a state of being inactive, but simply observing and analyzing the outcome longer, while focusing efforts elsewhere. Maybe "being on the fence" or staying in a frame of doubt and uncertainty for too long, without developing future steps for a given plan could really be considered disruptive inaction.

code-faster 6y ago

This only holds in convex payoff distributions where risk has a positive expected value. In concave payoff distributions, where risk has a negative expected value, inaction is favored.

sytelus 6y ago
Why this should depend on convexity at all? The study’s premise is marginal benefit, i.e., estimated risk difference is either minimal or perhaps too poorly known to call it out as marginal. If it was known to be positive or negative, action should be obvious. I am not defending this study because authors seem to rely heavily on survey where participants satisfaction measured only after 6 months. Typically, people tend to comfort themselves in short term for making big decisions such as divorce or job change even though in longer run they may higher accumulated regret. Economists need to develop good models instead of just keep doing surveys.
- code-faster 6y ago
  Immeasurable model risk When convex this is good When concave this is bad So if all else is equal, the convexity breaks the tie.
- sukilot 6y ago
  > Typically, people tend to comfort themselves in short term for making big decisions such as divorce or job change What about "buyer's remorse" and "honeymoon period"?

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keiferski 6y ago

This can really go both ways, which makes it complicated. I feel like contemporary human beings have a massive bias toward action, often to their own detriment. "Do nothing and wait" is often a good piece of advice, but I can't see any political leader, entrepreneur, or 'thought leader' advocating for that. Patience seems to have lost out to instant gratification and the desire to do something, anything. ..those who had opted for the choice that involved making a change (as opposed to sticking with the status quo) were more satisfied with their decision and generally happier. If you study history, specifically military history, you'll see the "be patient" strategy employed successfully (and ignored, unsuccessfully) quite often. Fabius defeated Hannibal by essentially out-waiting him. [1] One of the Thirty-Six Stratagems from ancient Chinese warfare is Wait at leisure while the enemy labors. [2] So I would amend the advice to be, In marginal decisions, don't be rash, but don't over-analyze. Wait for the right moment, then act. The example cited in the article could also just be retroactive rationalization. I.e. people want to rationalize their decisions as being the right one. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_strategy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_strategy 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six_Stratagems#Wait_at_leisure_while_the_enemy_labors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six_Stratagems#Wait_at_...

phkahler 6y ago
Timing a specific action is different than not taking an action. Unless you lie to yourself that you're waiting for the right time in order to not take action. ;-)

karmakaze 6y ago

> The findings may be explained by 'loss aversion', a cognitive bias that causes potential losses to be weighed more heavily than potential gains (the ratio is somewhere around 2:1, meaning that most people will feel comfortable with a decision only when the likely gains are double the likely losses). As a result, in situations where the benefits and drawbacks of making a change appear to be evenly matched, it may be sensible to take action. This loss aversion ratio of 2:1 is an average or other. How do you find your own ratio? It's the only one that matters. I'm always switching tracks and on to the next new (or old and new to me) thing. A better reason is most people toward the ends of their lives regret the things they didn't do, rarely any of the things they've done. Do more things. Change is good.

ChrisHardman29 6y ago
Happiness or wellbeing are such difficult concepts to measure and compare that I don't think you can ever arrive at a specific, generally-applicable ratio. But that doesn't mean that being aware of loss aversion (and the way it may be shaping your assessment of a decision) isn't helpful in reaching better outcomes. I agree re regretting inaction. There are lots of nuances in how this seems to work as well - see https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Femo0000326 https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Femo0000326.

karaterobot 6y ago

> ... whenever you cannot decide what you should do, choose the action that represents a change, rather than continuing the status quo. As a heuristic, this is kind of rough: what does it mean to say you "cannot decide what you should do"? How hard have you tried? If this research was mutated into a piece of folk wisdom, I bet it would be interpreted as advising that "change is preferable, so don't overthink it." But, that would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It's better to make important decisions after getting as much information as possible, and using rational decision-making strategies. So, it's likely always more effective, though more work, to try to push back the boundary of when the word "cannot" becomes applicable than it is to just say "fuck it, let's do this".

tlarkworthy 6y ago

It's the Monty Hall problem effect. When you take an action, you choose from a small set of options. When you stay with the status quo, you are following a Markov chain than has not been narrowed by your choices (which is worse on average).

smegma2 6y ago
This sounds wrong to me, what would be the analogue of the door being revealed?
- ghaff 6y ago
  Yeah, I'm not sure I agree with that. The Monty Haff problem is about changing a choice on the basis of additional information. The point the parent is hinting at which can apply although I'm not prepared to argue for it as a general rule is the following: If you are in a not good situation (and e.g. you're torn about changing your job as an example given in the OP), I can believe that making any reasonable change is better to just plodding along with the status quo. In a similar vein--and I've run into this a bunch with project management--making a decision (any decision!) is often better than a status quo of deferring and studying for longer.
- tlarkworthy 6y ago
  The door being revealed is time passing and understanding your own needs and what the world provides. The status quo is sticking to a historical choice made with less information. When you consider action today, you use fresh information, but to actually realise that advantage, you need to pick one of the new choices, even though it's outcome is stocastic
  - smegma2 6y ago
    That makes sense, thanks.

KKKKkkkk1 6y ago

What is a marginal decision? Is quitting a job or ending a relationship a marginal decision?

nostrademons 6y ago
It's whenever you have that feeling of "I just can't decide between these two options", and don't have a strong feeling either way. Quitting a job or ending a relationship can be a marginal decision, if you're not sure you want to do it. Sometimes you're just fed up with your current employer, or there's an obviously good opportunity available - that's not a marginal decision, that's an easy decision. But sometimes there's an opportunity, but you're not sure you want to take it, but it seems intriguing, but it'd be a big risk, but you wonder if you'll regret not taking it, etc. That's a marginal decision, and the type that the article suggests you should take.
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downerending 6y ago
Like when your pilot isn't sure there's something wrong with the plane, but just has this feeling that something's not right.

xenocyon 6y ago

Counterpoint: the way people assess decisions after the fact is no more rational than the way people assess them beforehand. Some parents with n children wrestle with the decision of whether to have n+1. You seldom hear regret from people who choose to go ahead with having an additional kid - yet science shows that, in aggregate, people with multiple kids tend to be unhappier than people with just one. In this example, each individual claimed to be happier with choosing 'action' over 'inaction', but in aggregate the action made people unhappier.

ulisesrmzroche 6y ago

Funny how the iChing says exactly the opposite, no matter how many times I flip the e-coins

supernova87a 6y ago

Maybe this has some applicability for personal, individual decisions. But to translate this to larger, more important things, affecting way more people? Take great caution. If you find yourself to be a leader, CEO, president, or whatever, facing really hard, ambiguous decisions, sometimes the right thing is not to act, yet this is very hard to do and resist the temptation to act. We end up disincentivizing leaders from hesitating to act, when that might be the appropriate thing, because it might be seen as weakness or indecision. All too often the bias towards action (for anything but personal decisions) is a quick way to get in a lot of trouble.

ip26 6y ago

This would seem to line up with some old wisdom I heard years ago, where some researcher interviewed elders and found that his subjects regretted chances they had not taken far more than chances they had taken, even if it didn't work out. That idea was a big focus of mine as I tried to get over fear in dating.

nsonha 6y ago

It's not in the title but the goal here is to feel better afterward. It has nohing to do with the statistics of making the better call.

JuliusPullo 6y ago

Of course they are not satisfied. That's why they were considering a life-changing decision, because they were not happy with the status-quo. Duh! —"Levitt found that those who had opted for the choice that involved making a change (as opposed to sticking with the status quo) were more satisfied with their decision and generally happier."