6 ms·

700K per year. ok let's let the elephant out of the bag: why haven't we been in lockdown every year until this deadly scourge has been exterminated? and no, i

700K per year. ok let's let the elephant out of the bag: why haven't we been in lockdown every year until this deadly scourge has been exterminated? and no, it's not that the current pandemic was more uncertain. even by january/february, it was clearly less contagious and deadly than the 1918 flu. we had good bounds on potential trajectory by early march, when many lockdowns were being implemented.

optimiz3 6y ago
> why haven't we been in lockdown every year until this deadly scourge has been exterminated? Probably because 700k/year is globally, while the US alone has suffered 100k deaths in 3 months.
- clairity 6y ago
  currently ~350K global deaths for covid, in 6 months, since december.
  - thawaway1837 6y ago
    In about 3 months. For a disease that was growing exponentially before action was taken and even now is only just stopped growing in countries where action was taken. And no mosquito outbreak has caused entire hospital systems to collapse in various parts of the world.
- jakeogh 6y ago
  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pneumonia-deaths-2008-2015.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pn...
throwaway894345 6y ago
I'm of the impression that in March and perhaps even in April "experts" (whoever they are) thought the US alone could see death tolls in the millions?
- macintux 6y ago
  Without a lockdown, it’s still possible. Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate, which maps to 2-3 million people here in the US, and if everyone got ill in a short succession, because it is very contagious, the death toll would certainly be higher. Recent birthday party, 20 people, every single one caught the disease.
  - thawaway1837 6y ago
    The 0.5-1% fatality rate would be a LOT higher if all those people did fall sick at the same time. Hospital systems would collapse because of the number of sick people. Doctors and nurses would be missing because they would almost all likely fall sick. And people who would not die of COVID would die of other stuff because healthcare systems would have collapsed. This is what happened in Italy. This is what was happening in NYC for a few days at its worst. This is what is about to happen in Brazil and possibly in India.
  - throwaway894345 6y ago
    > Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate I read just a couple of days ago that the IFR (infection fatality rate) is only ~0.25%-0.3%? Still ~four times higher than that of the flu, but not ten times greater.
    - clairity 6y ago
      yes, IFR was trending toward 0.2-0.3% even in march, and with time it's only become more likely that those are the bounds. flu averages around 0.1% IFR, so likely 2-3X as deadly.
    - saalweachter 6y ago
      The current CDC "best estimate" is ~0.4%, assuming an R0 of 2.5, with estimates of ~0.2% if the R0 is actual ~2 in the US and ~1% if the R0 is actually 3.
      - throwaway894345 6y ago
thawaway1837 6y ago
Umm, for one thing because going into lockdown wouldn’t do anything to prevent death by mosquito? You do know that mosquitoes have wings and can move from place to place without humans right?
- clairity 6y ago
  you know that the most effective preventative for mosquito bites are mosquito nets, like staying inside, with screens on your windows and doors, right?
  - macintux 6y ago
    The lockdown isn't intended to protect the people staying inside, although that certainly helps; it's designed to protect everyone who they'd otherwise be infecting unknowingly.
  - tempestn 6y ago
    And people who live in areas where malaria is common do use nets and screens as much as possible. Unlike many people in western countries though, they don't have the luxury of locking themselves down indefinitely. Nor do they have the same expectation that the measures would only need to be temporary.
    - smabie 6y ago
      > And people who live in areas where malaria is common do use nets and screens as much as possible. Ehh, not exactly. I used to live in Africa, parts where there were tstsi flies and mosquitos. Despite being given nets by the Gates foundation, people rarely used them. Well, some used them as hair nets, others through them away because their pastors convinced them their purpose was to sterilize the African people, etc etc.
  - addicted44 6y ago
    So you dont need a lockdown. You simply need mosquito nets. So when you have a cheap solution that works, why would you want to do something expensive that does not even work any better than the cheap solution? Other than making a nonsensical ideological statement, that is.
the_af 6y ago
Where I live we're concurrently experiencing, besides COVID19, a dengue fever outbreak. Dengue fever is spread by mosquitoes -- specifically, Aedes Aegypti. Dengue is way more serious than COVID19. Particularly worrisome, having had dengue makes subsequent reinfections more life-threatening, not less. There are ways to eradicate the mosquito -- mainly getting rid of small clear water containers near/within your home, such as vases and empty plant pots -- but we still don't do it until it's too late and becomes a problem. A single neighbor who doesn't do this endangers the whole block. And the authorities don't give a fuck. It's infuriating, really. So to rephrase your question, why don't we do something about it? It's way more actionable than COVID19 (though lockdowns don't work for the reasons others told you). So who knows?
- clairity 6y ago
  yeah, that's the kind of thing that's absolutely infuriating relative to the panic and paranoia we're seeing with this pandemic just because it's novel.
- acdha 6y ago
  > we still don't do it until it's too late and becomes a problem. A single neighbor who doesn't do this endangers the whole block. And the authorities don't give a fuck. It's infuriating, really. You seem to be strangely unaware of the large amount of money which has been spent for decades on mosquito control by individuals and all levels of government. There are widespread control campaigns, active research into developing new weapons (e.g. traps which are effective against tiger mosquitoes), and community awareness to get more people involved with habitat control and using things like bed nets. I mean, does this sound like not doing something? https://www.epa.gov/mosquitocontrol/success-mosquito-control-integrated-approach https://www.epa.gov/mosquitocontrol/success-mosquito-control... Several companies have been working for years on genetic modifications to disrupt mosquito spread: https://e360.yale.edu/features/genetically_modified_mosquito_sparks_a_controversy_in_florida https://e360.yale.edu/features/genetically_modified_mosquito...
  - the_af 6y ago
    > You seem to be strangely unaware of the large amount of money which has been spent for decades on mosquito control by individuals and all levels of government. Which government are you talking about? I don't live in the US and you linked to EPA and Yale. I can tell you my government is doing very little to combat dengue fever, and when they do, it's too little, too late. > widespread control campaigns [...] community awareness There's very little of that. And one careless neighbor effectively endangers the whole apartment block.
root_axis 6y ago
Your reasoning is flawed. Mosquito bites don't silently and rapidly spread through human populations via close contact. If I get bit by a mosquito and walk into a crowded bar the patrons within are not at risk of becoming infected. Not true with COVID.
7leafer 6y ago
"why haven't we been in lockdown every year until this deadly scourge has been exterminated?" One does not simply question the official corona narrative here without being censored by downvoting or flagging. But answering your question: that's because such scenario was not developed and funded. Yet.
- clairity 6y ago
  i'm happy to pay that (tiny) cost if it makes even one person stop and question the narrative honestly for even a second.
  - 7leafer 6y ago
    So am I, my friend.
    - cryptoquick 6y ago
      Your pushback against the HN downvoter cowards, especially when you've questioned the status quo and planted a seed of dissent against the grain, is quite appreciated by this particular HN user. Honestly, I find the dialogue here toxic and coarse, and I'm sure I'm a part of that, too. Ideally I'd just delete my account, and never come back... But HN won't allow me to delete my account, so, in spite, I'll keep coming back.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - fein 6y ago
        Years ago it wasn't like this, and I recall reading mostly hardcore tech nerdery on here. Now... I don't even know. HN and Reddit are pretty well useless, and the only thing that keeps me around Reddit are automotive and industrial/machining subs. Seems strange that it was only 8 years ago. Member when HN was overwhelmingly pro meritocracy? I member. I really miss reading King Terry's diatribes in showdead. You'd probably be outright banned for that on here now. I don't think people downvoted as much back then either.

optimiz3 6y ago

> why haven't we been in lockdown every year until this deadly scourge has been exterminated? Probably because 700k/year is globally, while the US alone has suffered 100k deaths in 3 months.

clairity 6y ago
currently ~350K global deaths for covid, in 6 months, since december.
- thawaway1837 6y ago
  In about 3 months. For a disease that was growing exponentially before action was taken and even now is only just stopped growing in countries where action was taken. And no mosquito outbreak has caused entire hospital systems to collapse in various parts of the world.
jakeogh 6y ago
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pneumonia-deaths-2008-2015.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pn...

throwaway894345 6y ago

I'm of the impression that in March and perhaps even in April "experts" (whoever they are) thought the US alone could see death tolls in the millions?

macintux 6y ago
Without a lockdown, it’s still possible. Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate, which maps to 2-3 million people here in the US, and if everyone got ill in a short succession, because it is very contagious, the death toll would certainly be higher. Recent birthday party, 20 people, every single one caught the disease.
- thawaway1837 6y ago
  The 0.5-1% fatality rate would be a LOT higher if all those people did fall sick at the same time. Hospital systems would collapse because of the number of sick people. Doctors and nurses would be missing because they would almost all likely fall sick. And people who would not die of COVID would die of other stuff because healthcare systems would have collapsed. This is what happened in Italy. This is what was happening in NYC for a few days at its worst. This is what is about to happen in Brazil and possibly in India.
- throwaway894345 6y ago
  > Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate I read just a couple of days ago that the IFR (infection fatality rate) is only ~0.25%-0.3%? Still ~four times higher than that of the flu, but not ten times greater.
  - clairity 6y ago
    yes, IFR was trending toward 0.2-0.3% even in march, and with time it's only become more likely that those are the bounds. flu averages around 0.1% IFR, so likely 2-3X as deadly.
  - saalweachter 6y ago
    The current CDC "best estimate" is ~0.4%, assuming an R0 of 2.5, with estimates of ~0.2% if the R0 is actual ~2 in the US and ~1% if the R0 is actually 3.
    - throwaway894345 6y ago

thawaway1837 6y ago

Umm, for one thing because going into lockdown wouldn’t do anything to prevent death by mosquito? You do know that mosquitoes have wings and can move from place to place without humans right?

clairity 6y ago
you know that the most effective preventative for mosquito bites are mosquito nets, like staying inside, with screens on your windows and doors, right?
- macintux 6y ago
  The lockdown isn't intended to protect the people staying inside, although that certainly helps; it's designed to protect everyone who they'd otherwise be infecting unknowingly.
- tempestn 6y ago
  And people who live in areas where malaria is common do use nets and screens as much as possible. Unlike many people in western countries though, they don't have the luxury of locking themselves down indefinitely. Nor do they have the same expectation that the measures would only need to be temporary.
  - smabie 6y ago
    > And people who live in areas where malaria is common do use nets and screens as much as possible. Ehh, not exactly. I used to live in Africa, parts where there were tstsi flies and mosquitos. Despite being given nets by the Gates foundation, people rarely used them. Well, some used them as hair nets, others through them away because their pastors convinced them their purpose was to sterilize the African people, etc etc.
- addicted44 6y ago
  So you dont need a lockdown. You simply need mosquito nets. So when you have a cheap solution that works, why would you want to do something expensive that does not even work any better than the cheap solution? Other than making a nonsensical ideological statement, that is.

the_af 6y ago

Where I live we're concurrently experiencing, besides COVID19, a dengue fever outbreak. Dengue fever is spread by mosquitoes -- specifically, Aedes Aegypti. Dengue is way more serious than COVID19. Particularly worrisome, having had dengue makes subsequent reinfections more life-threatening, not less. There are ways to eradicate the mosquito -- mainly getting rid of small clear water containers near/within your home, such as vases and empty plant pots -- but we still don't do it until it's too late and becomes a problem. A single neighbor who doesn't do this endangers the whole block. And the authorities don't give a fuck. It's infuriating, really. So to rephrase your question, why don't we do something about it? It's way more actionable than COVID19 (though lockdowns don't work for the reasons others told you). So who knows?

clairity 6y ago
yeah, that's the kind of thing that's absolutely infuriating relative to the panic and paranoia we're seeing with this pandemic just because it's novel.
acdha 6y ago
> we still don't do it until it's too late and becomes a problem. A single neighbor who doesn't do this endangers the whole block. And the authorities don't give a fuck. It's infuriating, really. You seem to be strangely unaware of the large amount of money which has been spent for decades on mosquito control by individuals and all levels of government. There are widespread control campaigns, active research into developing new weapons (e.g. traps which are effective against tiger mosquitoes), and community awareness to get more people involved with habitat control and using things like bed nets. I mean, does this sound like not doing something? https://www.epa.gov/mosquitocontrol/success-mosquito-control-integrated-approach https://www.epa.gov/mosquitocontrol/success-mosquito-control... Several companies have been working for years on genetic modifications to disrupt mosquito spread: https://e360.yale.edu/features/genetically_modified_mosquito_sparks_a_controversy_in_florida https://e360.yale.edu/features/genetically_modified_mosquito...
- the_af 6y ago
  > You seem to be strangely unaware of the large amount of money which has been spent for decades on mosquito control by individuals and all levels of government. Which government are you talking about? I don't live in the US and you linked to EPA and Yale. I can tell you my government is doing very little to combat dengue fever, and when they do, it's too little, too late. > widespread control campaigns [...] community awareness There's very little of that. And one careless neighbor effectively endangers the whole apartment block.

root_axis 6y ago

Your reasoning is flawed. Mosquito bites don't silently and rapidly spread through human populations via close contact. If I get bit by a mosquito and walk into a crowded bar the patrons within are not at risk of becoming infected. Not true with COVID.

7leafer 6y ago

"why haven't we been in lockdown every year until this deadly scourge has been exterminated?" One does not simply question the official corona narrative here without being censored by downvoting or flagging. But answering your question: that's because such scenario was not developed and funded. Yet.

clairity 6y ago
i'm happy to pay that (tiny) cost if it makes even one person stop and question the narrative honestly for even a second.
- 7leafer 6y ago
  So am I, my friend.
  - cryptoquick 6y ago
    Your pushback against the HN downvoter cowards, especially when you've questioned the status quo and planted a seed of dissent against the grain, is quite appreciated by this particular HN user. Honestly, I find the dialogue here toxic and coarse, and I'm sure I'm a part of that, too. Ideally I'd just delete my account, and never come back... But HN won't allow me to delete my account, so, in spite, I'll keep coming back.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - fein 6y ago
      Years ago it wasn't like this, and I recall reading mostly hardcore tech nerdery on here. Now... I don't even know. HN and Reddit are pretty well useless, and the only thing that keeps me around Reddit are automotive and industrial/machining subs. Seems strange that it was only 8 years ago. Member when HN was overwhelmingly pro meritocracy? I member. I really miss reading King Terry's diatribes in showdead. You'd probably be outright banned for that on here now. I don't think people downvoted as much back then either.