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Right. There are around 100 vaccines in development. We have vaccines that have created binding antibodies in primates already. We have some that have been give
by ericb 6y ago
Right. There are around 100 vaccines in development. We have vaccines that have created binding antibodies in primates already. We have some that have been given to humans and produced antibodies as well.
Even pessimistically assuming 90% fail, you end up with 10 vaccines.
https://www.centerwatch.com/articles/12702-new-mit-study-puts-clinical-research-success-rate-at-14-percent https://www.centerwatch.com/articles/12702-new-mit-study-put...
- soperj 6y agothat's not pessimistic. Regularly only 6% of vaccines make it past trials.
- ericb 6y agoDo you have a source, because I provided one, and if you look, it says: "Approval rates ranged from a high of 33.4 percent in vaccines for infectious diseases to 3.4 percent for investigational cancer treatments" So by that source, I was wildly pessimistic.
- ericb 6y agoAbove I asked for a source for the 6% number. I randomly came across a second-hand source in this article that actually used that same number: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31252-6/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
- eli_gottlieb 6y agoYes, but with each trial stage a particular vaccine candidate passes, its likelihood of failing the further stages goes down. Most candidates that are going to fail, do so in the lab or in Phase 1 trials. A vaccine candidate that passes Phase 1 and Phase 2 has a pretty good outlook.