4 ms·

No, the annual death rate for the age group 18-45 is not 1000, it’s around 150. That is, even in the group of adults least affected by Covid-19, it would be nea

No, the annual death rate for the age group 18-45 is not 1000, it’s around 150. That is, even in the group of adults least affected by Covid-19, it would be near the top of the list for causes of death. In the most affected group (75+), the casualty rate is nearly 100 times higher. It would be around the murder rate in Cincinnati (if all victims were 18-45 and the infection rate was equal to NYC) I don’t have a narrative - I don’t pretend to know what the best course of action is. But I am pointing out some of the glaring factual errors repeatedly made by people who are dismissive of the severity of this disease.

hedora 6y ago
I suspect you are quoting case fatality rates instead of death rates. In particular, the whole-population rate is <= 0.5%. (International agencies and other governments say 0.5%, the CDC says (1-.3)*.4%). That includes asymptomatic and undiagnosed people. Case fatality rates only include diagnosed cases. Clearly, if you are diagnosed with the virus, you are more likely to die from it than an asymptomatic person, or a person with minor symptoms that doesn’t bother to call a doctor. It is true that, at 100% infection rate, it would be the leading cause of death this year. The thing is, it’s a one time hit to life expectancies, so it’s not really comparable to the other risks. That means it can be the number one cause of death, even though 99.5% of the people that catch it will recover and die of something else.
- mdemare 6y ago
  > I suspect you are quoting case fatality rates instead of death rates No. There were 652 confirmed deaths and 129 probably deaths in NYC in the 18-44 age group. If there are 3 million people in that age group in NYC (my estimate, look up if you want the exact number) that gives a confirmed death rate of 21.7 per 100k and confirmed + probable death rate of 27 per 100k. Close enough.
redis_mlc 6y ago
Instead of taking shots at people on HN, write a detailed document and add a link - that would be useful. But I'm not going to debate inaccurate corona statistics with a pedant on HN. The mortality rate for young people is less than 1% - low for a pandemic. Ebola is 50% and up, and recurs every other year. > it’s a one time hit to life expectancies For people who actually get acutely sick from corona. I agree the 5% or so of people who get acutely ill will have a shortened lifespan, but there's no data for the other 95%.

hedora 6y ago

I suspect you are quoting case fatality rates instead of death rates. In particular, the whole-population rate is <= 0.5%. (International agencies and other governments say 0.5%, the CDC says (1-.3)*.4%). That includes asymptomatic and undiagnosed people. Case fatality rates only include diagnosed cases. Clearly, if you are diagnosed with the virus, you are more likely to die from it than an asymptomatic person, or a person with minor symptoms that doesn’t bother to call a doctor. It is true that, at 100% infection rate, it would be the leading cause of death this year. The thing is, it’s a one time hit to life expectancies, so it’s not really comparable to the other risks. That means it can be the number one cause of death, even though 99.5% of the people that catch it will recover and die of something else.

mdemare 6y ago
> I suspect you are quoting case fatality rates instead of death rates No. There were 652 confirmed deaths and 129 probably deaths in NYC in the 18-44 age group. If there are 3 million people in that age group in NYC (my estimate, look up if you want the exact number) that gives a confirmed death rate of 21.7 per 100k and confirmed + probable death rate of 27 per 100k. Close enough.

redis_mlc 6y ago

Instead of taking shots at people on HN, write a detailed document and add a link - that would be useful. But I'm not going to debate inaccurate corona statistics with a pedant on HN. The mortality rate for young people is less than 1% - low for a pandemic. Ebola is 50% and up, and recurs every other year. > it’s a one time hit to life expectancies For people who actually get acutely sick from corona. I agree the 5% or so of people who get acutely ill will have a shortened lifespan, but there's no data for the other 95%.