3 ms·
Fair criticism. I don't have a confident estimate for the number of new remote employees, but here's a hand-wavy one: one third of the 130M US jobs can be done
by realbarack 6y ago
Fair criticism. I don't have a confident estimate for the number of new remote employees, but here's a hand-wavy one: one third of the 130M US jobs can be done remotely [0]. 20% of CFOs expect about 20% of their workforce to be remote in the future [1]. Assuming a uniform distribution across company sizes and no other remote jobs outside of those 20%, we'd expect 1/3 * 130M * 1/5 * 1/5 = 1.75M new remote jobs.
The assumptions here are obviously strong and wrong but it does seem like "low millions" is probably the right order of magnitude.
Moreover we can expect highly-regarded companies like Facebook and Twitter to be bellwethers for the rest of industry. If their remote work experiments succeed, I suspect expansion will follow rapidly (I expect the reverse if they fail).
[0] https://news.uchicago.edu/story/much-us-staying-home-how-many-jobs-can-be-done-remotely https://news.uchicago.edu/story/much-us-staying-home-how-man...
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/ezequielminaya/2020/04/03/cfos-plan-to-permanently-shift-significant-numbers-of-employees-to-work-remotely---survey/#1a7448d9575b https://www.forbes.com/sites/ezequielminaya/2020/04/03/cfos-...
- n4r9 6y agoThanks for the response. I wonder how many of the 1/3 in the first article can be done fully remote, i.e. without needing to come in once or twice a week, which might make moving out of the city less attractive. The uniform distribution seems strong too... at $50m revenue it feels like you're looking at big businesses which have a lot more leeway for offering remote positions. How many of the 130m jobs belong to such big businesses? It all seems pretty hard to predict.