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The implication of the title, that rural cities in general have overtaken NYC isn't necessarily backed up by the data, unless it can be shown to be a pattern in
by danans 6y ago
The implication of the title, that rural cities in general have overtaken NYC isn't necessarily backed up by the data, unless it can be shown to be a pattern in a huge number of rural cities, such the the combined population of those reaches a level of statistical significance. The data in the NYT article also shows more rural cities that have lower case rates than NYC.
The more likely scenario is that these rural cities with higher case rates than NYC represent their own individual outbreaks of the pandemic. That might become more of a pattern, especially as shelter-in-place restrictions are increasingly lifted, but it's too early to make that prediction.
- vikramkr 6y agoThe observation actually perfectly fits a statistical principle that you're just going to see more extremes (lower and larger per capital cases) in smaller populations because probability.
- danans 6y agoI'd cast just as much doubt on stats showing low cases/1000 in small cities and towns and subsequent predictions that small towns won't be affected. I don't think we have enough data in those places to know the patterns either way, especially since the situation is changed daily. The dynamics of this disease aren't well understood enough. Earlier it was thought that the heat of the southern hemisphere was protecting it, but now Latin America is seeing a large rise in cases. EDIT: removed my comment about low sample size and high variance, since the case rate is just a about cases/100 people, not based on a sampling procedure.
- epistasis 6y agoHeadlines are always ambiguous-they are too short to be otherwise. My reading of it was definitely not "rural cities in general" but rather just some rural cities. I can see the ambiguity, but I think it's important to read headlines with the understanding that they will never be a substitute for the story.
- strictnein 6y agoNot sure how one can read news online in 2020 and not understand that the majority of people only read the headlines and they are used to push narratives. They could have prepended the word "Some".