> the probability to find moderately gifted individuals at the top levels of success is greater than that of finding there very talented ones, because moderatel

> the probability to find moderately gifted individuals at the top levels of success is greater than that of finding there very talented ones, because moderately gifted people are much more numerous That is exactly what Bayes' theorem predicts. Many other conclusions , erroneously, seem more intuitively right, thou. Statistics is hard to master as our brains biases are strong forces.