The op is not reducing everything to talent, or even implying that talent is especially important. If you are thinking about this statistically (the OP is), tha

The op is not reducing everything to talent, or even implying that talent is especially important. If you are thinking about this statistically (the OP is), than these examples don't matter. The implication is a distribution of outcomes, not definite outcomes. The argument works regardless of the definition of success used.