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Over the course of your entire life, the statistical expected values of the "gambles" tend to net out.
by koheripbal 6y ago
Over the course of your entire life, the statistical expected values of the "gambles" tend to net out.
- throwaway0a5e 6y agoAnd over the course of the population there are going to be a lot of outliers (both winners and losers).
- cxr 6y agoIf You Say Something Is "Likely," How Likely Do People Think It Is? https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17457000 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17457000
- vharuck 6y agoThat assumes independent events. But "failing" early (weak social network, poverty, lost a lot on the first big gamble) have a large effect on the size and risk of the next gamble.