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You cannot have it both ways. First you claim that no one spoke up and then you dismiss the ones who did as alarmists

• nickff 6y ago
  If someone does not make specific and testable predictions which turn out to be right, they are useless alarmists. If you want to read about how to assess predictors (and improve predictions), I suggest you read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_...
  • anigbrowl 6y ago
    I'm a very good forecaster, and skill in this area doesn't stem from reflexive dismissal or ability to deploy fallacious counter-arguments.
    • nickff 6y ago
      Would you please point out the fallacy?
      • anigbrowl 6y ago
        Bifurcation
        • nickff 6y ago
          I did not present a false choice between two options, I only defined what an alarmist is. I regard alarmists as an extreme on the spectrum of forecasters. Bifurcating would have been saying that everyone is either a superforecaster or an alarmist, and I never said that. You may not agree with me, but that doesn't mean that I fell into a logical fallacy.
          • anigbrowl 6y ago
            If someone does not make specific and testable predictions which turn out to be right, they are useless alarmists. This conversation doesn't seem like it's going to go anywhere productive.