6 ms·

This is BULLSHIT, the guy (Oehmen) is a mechanical engineer with a management focus. He worked at my alma mater (ETHZ). His field of experties is supply chain r

This is BULLSHIT, the guy (Oehmen) is a mechanical engineer with a management focus. He worked at my alma mater (ETHZ). His field of experties is supply chain risk management. Look up his papers, he isn't a nuclear physicist. I'd say he's about as qualified to make a comment on the situation as I am. The "essay" by Oehmen was first published by a notorious nuclear lobbyist, Jason Morgan. Look at this: http://nuclearfissionary.com/about/ http://nuclearfissionary.com/about/ Nuclear Energy suffers from a poor public image. We’re here to change all that. For decades the nuclear energy industry has been under attack by antinuclear activists both organized and unorganized. Fear and panic have been their call signs and with little regard for science or the impact on civilization, they have remained unchecked for years And more, from that page: Jason Morgan A corporate finance and accounting professional who has great personal interest in the future of the world’s energy crisis. Jason is looking forward to utilizing his financial and economic data analysis skills to shed light on nuclear energy. In short: FUD by nuclear energy lobbyists.

rimantas 16y ago
> In short: FUD by nuclear energy lobbyists. So mechanical engineer cannot possibly say anything truthful about nuclear energy? The fact still remains: nuclear energy is the safest and cleanest we have for now. So far we had what, three serious incidents with total number of causalities of 35, all in Chernobyl. Sure it affected much more people but still: the single incident at Sayano-Sushenskoye hydroelectric power plant claimed 75 lives. How about Banqiao Dam? According to the Hydrology Department of Henan Province,[5] in the province, approximately 26,000 people died from flooding and another 145,000 died during subsequent epidemics and famine. In addition, about 5,960,000 buildings collapsed, and 11 million residents were affected. And thats not counting all the incidents in coal and oil industry (and the fact that burning coal releases more radiation for the same amount of energy produced than nuclear power plants).
- deleted 16y ago
  [deleted]
- borism 16y ago
  Sure it affected much more people but still indeed. who cares about them...
- brazzy 16y ago
  total number of causalities of 35, all in Chernobyl Wrong, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster - 31 dead from acute radiation poisoning within months - 216 non-cancer deaths until 1998 - Between 9,000 (official government report) and 60,000 (TORCH report) cancer deaths overall
  - moe 16y ago
    60,000 (TORCH report) cancer deaths overall Thanks for pointing that out one more time. I'm not an anti-nuclear zealot but I'm getting extremely tired of supposedly intelligent people citing the "35 deaths" bullshit-figure on HN in each japan-thread. If there had been only 35 or 4000 deaths then Chernobyl would not be considered a catastrophic event up to this day. Instead it would be considered a testament to the safety of the technology. I wonder if the part that these people have trouble wrapping their head around is the latency? This is what happens during a nuclear accident: Nothing. At the very worst we may see a few hundred immediate deaths. Other than that, life goes on. The real aftermath kicks in 10-20 years later, when people start developing cancer and birth defects. Different sources report different figures for Chernobyl, partly due to political bias, and partly because it's just really hard to track >600k people over such a long timeframe. However, the estimates from most sources other than the IAEA and the russian government range in the tens of thousands - quite a long shot from "35".
    - dkersten 16y ago
      I was watching a documentary about Chernobyl a while ago and some of the birth defects are extremely severe.
    - daniel-cussen 16y ago
      >If there had been only 35 or 4000 deaths then Chernobyl would not be considered a catastrophic event up to this day. Instead it would be considered a testament to the safety of the technology. Doubt it. Nobody says Three Mile Island was a testament to the safety of nuclear power, and the harm was pretty small, unambiguously less harm than 35 dead: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident#Health_effects_and_epidemiology http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident#Heal....
- varjag 16y ago
  > The fact still remains: nuclear energy is the safest and cleanest we have for now. Burning natural gas is both cleaner is safer, and it is a power source for much of Europe. I wonder why all nuclear advocates always bring in coal into the comparison.
  - dkersten 16y ago
    I imagine this is why: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/83/2008_US_electricity_generation_by_source_v2.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/83/2008_US_electr...
    - varjag 16y ago
      And in China they indeed burn even more coal. However, why build nuclear stations to displace coal, when it's possible to burn gas instead?
      - dkersten 16y ago
        I imagine it has something to do with the quantity of power a nuclear power plant can generate compared to a gas based power station (given equivelent time/amounts of fuel)?? But I don't really know. Having said that, though I don't remember the name/type ofdhand and am too lazy to look it up, there are new types of power plant in development/trials that 1) physically cannot meltdown, 2) produce much less (and less hazardous) waste and 3) use a plentiful form of nuclear fuel. If/when those nuclear power plants become production ready, then the choice between nuclear and fossil fuels is an easy one. For now, though, I agree with you and don't know the answer.
wladimir 16y ago
It reads very much like a last-ditch effort by nuclear energy lobbyists to convince us that nuclear energy is really safe. This brings back memories of the Iraqi information minister. In 15 years, if there are no further disasters, they might crawl out of their holes and start preaching about the wonders of nuclear energy again. Until then, just give up.
- gjm11 16y ago
  > a last-ditch effort by nuclear energy lobbyists to convince us that nuclear energy is really safe. Well, let's see. In this case we've had a bunch of nuclear power stations very close to the site of a historically-large earthquake and the ensuing tsunami, large enough that even with Japan's outstanding disaster-preparedness thousands or tens of thousands of people have died. That would seem to be pretty much a worst-case scenario. And, so far, all the troubles at the nuclear reactors have produced a grand total of zero deaths. Now, for sure, it's too early to know what the final outcome will be. Maybe there will be a Vast Nuclear Holocaust that obliterates Japan. (No, the laws of physics do not in fact permit this, but that objection applies equally to a number of other nightmare scenarios people have been proposing.) But so far as anyone can tell, the worst outcome that's at all likely is: a few people die, a few square km of land become unusable for a while, and they need to rebuild from scratch somewhere else. Well, that's pretty bad, for sure. But if that's the worst-case outcome from such a major natural disaster, it seems to me that -- so far as what we know right now goes -- nuclear energy is still looking pretty safe overall. (Note: I am not a nuclear energy lobbyist.)
  - cperciva 16y ago
    And, so far, all the troubles at the nuclear reactors have produced a grand total of zero deaths. Make that one death. One worker died as a result of the the crane he was working in becoming unbalanced and falling over.
icarus_drowning 16y ago
Lets see: genetic fallacy[1], circumstantial ad hominem[2], appeal to spite[3], and well-poisoning[4]. All in all, a very good compendium of logical fallacies, but as such, not a terribly good argument against the assertions made. 1:http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/genetic-fallacy.html http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/genetic-fallacy.htm... 2:http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/circumstantial-ad-hominem.html http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/circumstantial-ad-h... 3:http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-spite.html http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-spite.htm... 4:http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/poisoning-the-well.html http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/poisoning-the-well....
- anigbrowl 16y ago
  To be fair, the unworried proponents of this piece used equally fallacious rhetorical tricks, and did so with the intent to deceive.
  - hackerblues 16y ago
    What is your point? Presumably the correct response to bullshit is to call it out as such rather than producing your own.
    - anigbrowl 16y ago
      I don't think the grandparent poster was aware of the fallacies in his argument; more importantly, it throws the reliability of the original information supplied into question. For example, the 'not worried' writer explains that 'the nuclear fuel is uranium oxide.' But that is not true of the whole plant: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/challenge/csr/nuclear/cycle-e.html http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/challenge/csr/nuclear/cycle-e.html Plutonium complicates things rather significantly. Accuracy should not be sacrificed to fearmongering, but nor should it be sacrificed for mere reassurance. Edit: downvoted for supplying more accurate information with a citation? Classy.
- _delirium 16y ago
  I don't think all examination of qualifications constitutes a genetic fallacy. If anything it's closer to an argument from authority plus a closed-world assumption (i.e. I only accept arguments from authorities). But expertise and authority has a significant role in science, and not entirely an improper one imo. If I say that I prefer to hear expert analysis of nuclear reactors from someone with a PhD in nuclear physics, rather than from someone with a PhD in another field, that seems like a decent epistemological heuristic. The qualifications don't prove anything about the argument, but in general I expect people with relevant qualifications to know more of the relevant facts, so am more willing to defer to their judgment. It's doubly the case when the original article author promoted the article as being by an "MIT PhD". If someone is explicitly invoking their credentials to add weight to an argument, investigating whether the credentials are relevant seems reasonable.
brazzy 16y ago
In short: FUD by nuclear energy lobbyists. Um... Kinda the opposite of FUD, wouldn't you say?
mironathetin 16y ago
kitsune_, wrong choice of words, IMHO! The article is full of facts that make absolute sense and shed light on a large number of things that the news do not get right. My thanks to the author especially for a clear interpretation of the explosions. We need a clear head and should rely on facts in these situations. We also should not assume that nuclear reactors are not well constructed. I am sure they are. So it does not come as a surprise to me, that someone who knows the details is able to explain them in a way that it makes sense. This does not excuse the fact that the reactors failed. This is a different story. But it helps to understand what really happens now. What the author did not stress is the fact that, as the Zircaloy structure may have failed, all subsequent pressure releases will be highly contaminated. BTW, engineers are the ones who know best how safety is constructed, not scientists (I write this as someone who got his phd in atomic physics. So I am not an engineer).
forgotAgain 16y ago
Some supporting background information here. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/the-strange-case-of-josef-oehmen/ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/the-strange-case-of-jos... I'm not touting the veracity of this link. I'm only trying to show that the intent of the original article should be questioned.
assemble 16y ago
Nuclear engineering is a sub-discipline of mechanical engineering at many schools that offer it... Mechanical engineers do LOTS of thermodynamics.

rimantas 16y ago

> In short: FUD by nuclear energy lobbyists. So mechanical engineer cannot possibly say anything truthful about nuclear energy? The fact still remains: nuclear energy is the safest and cleanest we have for now. So far we had what, three serious incidents with total number of causalities of 35, all in Chernobyl. Sure it affected much more people but still: the single incident at Sayano-Sushenskoye hydroelectric power plant claimed 75 lives. How about Banqiao Dam? According to the Hydrology Department of Henan Province,[5] in the province, approximately 26,000 people died from flooding and another 145,000 died during subsequent epidemics and famine. In addition, about 5,960,000 buildings collapsed, and 11 million residents were affected. And thats not counting all the incidents in coal and oil industry (and the fact that burning coal releases more radiation for the same amount of energy produced than nuclear power plants).

deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
borism 16y ago
Sure it affected much more people but still indeed. who cares about them...
brazzy 16y ago
total number of causalities of 35, all in Chernobyl Wrong, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster - 31 dead from acute radiation poisoning within months - 216 non-cancer deaths until 1998 - Between 9,000 (official government report) and 60,000 (TORCH report) cancer deaths overall
- moe 16y ago
  60,000 (TORCH report) cancer deaths overall Thanks for pointing that out one more time. I'm not an anti-nuclear zealot but I'm getting extremely tired of supposedly intelligent people citing the "35 deaths" bullshit-figure on HN in each japan-thread. If there had been only 35 or 4000 deaths then Chernobyl would not be considered a catastrophic event up to this day. Instead it would be considered a testament to the safety of the technology. I wonder if the part that these people have trouble wrapping their head around is the latency? This is what happens during a nuclear accident: Nothing. At the very worst we may see a few hundred immediate deaths. Other than that, life goes on. The real aftermath kicks in 10-20 years later, when people start developing cancer and birth defects. Different sources report different figures for Chernobyl, partly due to political bias, and partly because it's just really hard to track >600k people over such a long timeframe. However, the estimates from most sources other than the IAEA and the russian government range in the tens of thousands - quite a long shot from "35".
  - dkersten 16y ago
    I was watching a documentary about Chernobyl a while ago and some of the birth defects are extremely severe.
  - daniel-cussen 16y ago
    >If there had been only 35 or 4000 deaths then Chernobyl would not be considered a catastrophic event up to this day. Instead it would be considered a testament to the safety of the technology. Doubt it. Nobody says Three Mile Island was a testament to the safety of nuclear power, and the harm was pretty small, unambiguously less harm than 35 dead: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident#Health_effects_and_epidemiology http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident#Heal....
varjag 16y ago
> The fact still remains: nuclear energy is the safest and cleanest we have for now. Burning natural gas is both cleaner is safer, and it is a power source for much of Europe. I wonder why all nuclear advocates always bring in coal into the comparison.
- dkersten 16y ago
  I imagine this is why: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/83/2008_US_electricity_generation_by_source_v2.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/83/2008_US_electr...
  - varjag 16y ago
    And in China they indeed burn even more coal. However, why build nuclear stations to displace coal, when it's possible to burn gas instead?
    - dkersten 16y ago
      I imagine it has something to do with the quantity of power a nuclear power plant can generate compared to a gas based power station (given equivelent time/amounts of fuel)?? But I don't really know. Having said that, though I don't remember the name/type ofdhand and am too lazy to look it up, there are new types of power plant in development/trials that 1) physically cannot meltdown, 2) produce much less (and less hazardous) waste and 3) use a plentiful form of nuclear fuel. If/when those nuclear power plants become production ready, then the choice between nuclear and fossil fuels is an easy one. For now, though, I agree with you and don't know the answer.

wladimir 16y ago

It reads very much like a last-ditch effort by nuclear energy lobbyists to convince us that nuclear energy is really safe. This brings back memories of the Iraqi information minister. In 15 years, if there are no further disasters, they might crawl out of their holes and start preaching about the wonders of nuclear energy again. Until then, just give up.

gjm11 16y ago
> a last-ditch effort by nuclear energy lobbyists to convince us that nuclear energy is really safe. Well, let's see. In this case we've had a bunch of nuclear power stations very close to the site of a historically-large earthquake and the ensuing tsunami, large enough that even with Japan's outstanding disaster-preparedness thousands or tens of thousands of people have died. That would seem to be pretty much a worst-case scenario. And, so far, all the troubles at the nuclear reactors have produced a grand total of zero deaths. Now, for sure, it's too early to know what the final outcome will be. Maybe there will be a Vast Nuclear Holocaust that obliterates Japan. (No, the laws of physics do not in fact permit this, but that objection applies equally to a number of other nightmare scenarios people have been proposing.) But so far as anyone can tell, the worst outcome that's at all likely is: a few people die, a few square km of land become unusable for a while, and they need to rebuild from scratch somewhere else. Well, that's pretty bad, for sure. But if that's the worst-case outcome from such a major natural disaster, it seems to me that -- so far as what we know right now goes -- nuclear energy is still looking pretty safe overall. (Note: I am not a nuclear energy lobbyist.)
- cperciva 16y ago
  And, so far, all the troubles at the nuclear reactors have produced a grand total of zero deaths. Make that one death. One worker died as a result of the the crane he was working in becoming unbalanced and falling over.

icarus_drowning 16y ago

Lets see: genetic fallacy[1], circumstantial ad hominem[2], appeal to spite[3], and well-poisoning[4]. All in all, a very good compendium of logical fallacies, but as such, not a terribly good argument against the assertions made. 1:http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/genetic-fallacy.html http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/genetic-fallacy.htm... 2:http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/circumstantial-ad-hominem.html http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/circumstantial-ad-h... 3:http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-spite.html http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-spite.htm... 4:http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/poisoning-the-well.html http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/poisoning-the-well....

anigbrowl 16y ago
To be fair, the unworried proponents of this piece used equally fallacious rhetorical tricks, and did so with the intent to deceive.
- hackerblues 16y ago
  What is your point? Presumably the correct response to bullshit is to call it out as such rather than producing your own.
  - anigbrowl 16y ago
    I don't think the grandparent poster was aware of the fallacies in his argument; more importantly, it throws the reliability of the original information supplied into question. For example, the 'not worried' writer explains that 'the nuclear fuel is uranium oxide.' But that is not true of the whole plant: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/challenge/csr/nuclear/cycle-e.html http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/challenge/csr/nuclear/cycle-e.html Plutonium complicates things rather significantly. Accuracy should not be sacrificed to fearmongering, but nor should it be sacrificed for mere reassurance. Edit: downvoted for supplying more accurate information with a citation? Classy.
_delirium 16y ago
I don't think all examination of qualifications constitutes a genetic fallacy. If anything it's closer to an argument from authority plus a closed-world assumption (i.e. I only accept arguments from authorities). But expertise and authority has a significant role in science, and not entirely an improper one imo. If I say that I prefer to hear expert analysis of nuclear reactors from someone with a PhD in nuclear physics, rather than from someone with a PhD in another field, that seems like a decent epistemological heuristic. The qualifications don't prove anything about the argument, but in general I expect people with relevant qualifications to know more of the relevant facts, so am more willing to defer to their judgment. It's doubly the case when the original article author promoted the article as being by an "MIT PhD". If someone is explicitly invoking their credentials to add weight to an argument, investigating whether the credentials are relevant seems reasonable.

brazzy 16y ago

In short: FUD by nuclear energy lobbyists. Um... Kinda the opposite of FUD, wouldn't you say?

mironathetin 16y ago

kitsune_, wrong choice of words, IMHO! The article is full of facts that make absolute sense and shed light on a large number of things that the news do not get right. My thanks to the author especially for a clear interpretation of the explosions. We need a clear head and should rely on facts in these situations. We also should not assume that nuclear reactors are not well constructed. I am sure they are. So it does not come as a surprise to me, that someone who knows the details is able to explain them in a way that it makes sense. This does not excuse the fact that the reactors failed. This is a different story. But it helps to understand what really happens now. What the author did not stress is the fact that, as the Zircaloy structure may have failed, all subsequent pressure releases will be highly contaminated. BTW, engineers are the ones who know best how safety is constructed, not scientists (I write this as someone who got his phd in atomic physics. So I am not an engineer).

forgotAgain 16y ago

Some supporting background information here. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/the-strange-case-of-josef-oehmen/ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/the-strange-case-of-jos... I'm not touting the veracity of this link. I'm only trying to show that the intent of the original article should be questioned.

assemble 16y ago

Nuclear engineering is a sub-discipline of mechanical engineering at many schools that offer it... Mechanical engineers do LOTS of thermodynamics.