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That, but also a misunderstanding of the strategy: herd immunity works on the thesis that the total number of victims is independent of speed of spreading. So n
by brnt 6y ago
That, but also a misunderstanding of the strategy: herd immunity works on the thesis that the total number of victims is independent of speed of spreading. So naturally, you'd expect more dead/hospitalized sooner under this (lack of) regime, but also a shorter active period. I.e.: a sharper peak, but roughly same area under the curve.
The reason most countries chose not to do this, is because they expect the peak to be too sharp to handle all the hospitalizations.
- chippy 6y agoWe need to count these total after a couple of years to see which strategy worked.
- brnt 6y agoWhich is of course why choosing a strategy is and will always be an informed guess. We won't know which strategy works best, which assumptions turned out to be true of flawed, until after the show. Sweden provides us with an upper bound. I think they're showing it's perhaps not as bad as we once thought it might be. Which is why many countries are now relaxing or looking to relax rules to regimes more similar to Sweden.
- shawnb576 6y agoIt provides us with an upper bound in Scandinavian countries with populations that behave like Swedes. How does that generalize to other countries with different densities, distancing compliance, healthcare, etc? Another way to read this is that Sweden is quite a lot worse than it's neighbors, but people there still followed the rules so it's actually a lower bound?