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I’m surprised there hasn’t been more development of engines optimized as range extenders. That seemed like an obvious next step from the Prius, for example. Bu

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more development of engines optimized as range extenders. That seemed like an obvious next step from the Prius, for example. But I think the peak of that opportunity has passed. The market in Europe and China is going to flip to pure electric in 5-8 years, with the US 5 years later. The window for developing new models that fit into that transition is shrinking. There will be long term demand for range extended vehicles, still in 15 or 20 years, but it will be niche.

ChuckNorris89 6y ago
>The market in Europe and China is going to flip to pure electric in 5-8 years That's way too optimistic for Europe. Maybe with the exception of Norway and Europe's largest metros like London, most of Europe will stay on ICE for a long time. The price of electric cars here is too high for most incomes and the cheaper ones have too little range compared to ICEs. Not to mention the charging infrastructure is still lacking. Right now they're still toys for the rich man with a house and not tools for the average joe. I'd rather we invest the money in public transport and cycling infrastructure to rid the cities of cars but unfortunately the auto industry lobbies too strong in Europe for that to happen.
- scrumbledober 6y ago
  I'm also just really not sure the battery capacity will be able to scale that quickly. As it stands we are basically making EVs as fast as we make batteries.
- Retric 6y ago
  Electric cars are going to become extremely compelling very soon. A 300 mile electric car is close to the same cost as an IC engine over it’s lifespan. But, where IC engines have a hundred years of development and economies of scale electric cars are getting significantly better very quickly. Charge infrastructure is expanding rapidly due to current rates of adoption which further makes electric cars more appealing every year.
  - Unklejoe 6y ago
    While electric cars will cost less over their lifespan (due to much less maintenance), they still cost a lot more initially, and I think that's the biggest hurdle right now. A lot of people can't drop $40k on a car, but they can spend $25k up front and another $15k over the life of the car. I think the major changeover will be when I can buy the equivalent of a Honda Accord, but fully electric, and for the same price. The Tesla Model 3 was supposed to be that, but in reality, it still costs more.
    - aianus 6y ago
      Very few people spend $25k up front for a car. They lease it or finance it over 60 or 72 months. Unless you’re referring to the psychological sticker shock only and not the actual cash flow implications.
      - gsnedders 6y ago
        And that ignores the fact that the majority of car sales are not new cars, so the average purchase price of a car is lower still. Even once the majority of new car sales are EVs, we still have a long way to go (with both energy generation and the long period before the majority of miles driven are in EVs).
    - travisporter 6y ago
      Not really in the market for one, but in the US the 2019 Hyundai Ioniq (range of ~120 mi, so not ideal if you don't have a charger at home) is $99/mo with $1000 down for a 3 year lease, which is dirt cheap. I'm guessing after three years the battery will still be valuable, so they can be aggressively pricing it this way. I think if Tesla had better leasing, you'd see way more of them
      - gambiting 6y ago
        I have no idea how the price is so low in the US then, that's insane. We looked at the Ioniq for my wife last year and it was something like £3000 upfront and then £400 a month for 4 years - it's just a lot of money. For comparison, you could have a brand new VW Polo for £1000 upfront and £200 a month - and there's absolutely no way she could use £200 worth of fuel every month, even if petrol doubled in price.
- sergiosgc 6y ago
  Numbers for Portugal: In the last quarter of 2019, EVs (pure+hybrid) accounted for 4.6% of new vehicle sales, an 80% YoY increase. At these growth rates and start point, the 5-8 year estimate looks sound.
  - mkl 6y ago
    Is there reason to expect exponential growth? Seems a bit doubtful to me. What was the YoY increase for other recent years? With linear growth, you'd be looking at 37 years with these growth rates and start point.
    - CydeWeys 6y ago
      It caps out at 100%, so of course it's not going to be exponential growth. It is likely to be a logistic curve though, and we are still in the roughly exponential leftmost portion of it. Once there's mid-double-digit market penetration it's going to slow down a lot to roughly linear, then eventually, asymptotic.
      - mkl 6y ago
        Yes, that's more what I'm picturing. That asymptotic phase makes 5-8 years seem unlikely unless a legal obstacle is introduced.
    - NeutronStar 6y ago
      Why wouldn't it be exponential? Most of these processes follow an S curve which is exponential.
    - maxdo 6y ago
      several battery breakthroughs that will dump the cost way bellow the holy grail of car batteries of $100/kwh that makes them on pair with ICE cars. Some estimates predict that they will go way bellow $80 in 2021-22, Means end of 2022 beginning of 2023 will be flooded with even cheaper comparing to Model 3 cars with better quality batteries. Good quality $25-30k electric car will be a new reality. Those segments attack bestsellers like Toyota Camry etc... I'm pretty sure the price war will push them even lower within 1-2 years. Means full line of EV's from very cheap to luxury by 2024-25 on a scale from multiple companies. As a result we will have cars on the market that cost the same, perform better, and cheaper in a lifetime from service and fuel perspective. Millennials and GenZ also very eco-friendly, which means younger people are eager to buy EV's. The only delay could be new battery terra-factories rollout lag. That might give an extra 1-3 years lifetime for ICE. After that the traditional car market will be shaking as never before.
- ForHackernews 6y ago
  Delivery vehicle fleets are going to go all-electric fast once the economics of operating them dictate it.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- gambiting 6y ago
  Still no one can answer the question of where do you charge one if you rent an apartment with no parking or a terraced house with no driveway. Don't get me wrong, I'm planning to go 100% electric in the next few years, but then we're lucky enough to have a house with a double driveway - I have no idea how it can possibly work for people without dedicated parking.
  - mongol 6y ago
    One possibility is swappable batteries. So that there are places you drive, like a gas station, and a robot swaps the battery in a minute.
    - gambiting 6y ago
      Sure, but this simply doesn't exist. It's Sci-Fi at this point. A lot of countries are planning a complete ban on petrol/diesel new cars within 10-20 years, yet there are no such signs of such systems(and I suspect there won't be, since every single manufacturer uses different batteries of different shapes and sizes, in some EVs the batteries are simply not removable without hours of work first). Doing this would require standardization, and seeing as we're still in the early innovation phase, that would practically be suicide for the tech.
      - pmalynin 6y ago
        Tesla built some in California as a test bed
  - exhilaration 6y ago
    You'll need cities to do large scale deployments of streetlight chargers like these: https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-chargers-to-streetlights-giving-renters-a-place-to-plug-in/ https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-charge... I don't know if it'll require upgrades to the power grid. You've already got 240v in Europe, so that's only ~10 hours to charge a Tesla. But could it handle thousands of EVs charging simultaneously? If there's any place in the world that can do this it's Europe.
- Brakenshire 6y ago
  I should probably say in the process of flipping rather than have flipped over that time period, it’s not going to be 100% or 80%, but the s-curve transition will be well underway, and car manufacturers will have their hands full developing the technology.
- Jedd 6y ago
  > The price of electric cars here is too high for most incomes ... Where is 'here'? Here in Australia the price of pure electric cars is way too high - and not helped by federal government (lack of) subsidies, tariffs, policy preferences for fossil fuel, lack of charging infrastructure, etc. I recently scoped out comparable ICE vs full electric new vehicles, and 'around the same' quality/comfort/range/size we were looking at roughly 3.5x the cost for electric. A 5y cost projection for an ICE that does 4.5 litres / 100 km, even with anticipated (higher) servicing costs, doesn't get us to a compelling proposition.
Imaiomus 6y ago
this one its in late development http://innengine.com/home/ http://innengine.com/home/
- jacobush 6y ago
  If they don't have a working prototype I can't see how it's in late development.
numpad0 6y ago
The more I learn about electrics and hybrids the Prius PHV starts to make more and more sense... except for that hideous face of ZVW50
ashtonkem 6y ago
The Prius is the wrong kind of hybrid for that, as the Prius is a parallel hybrid; both the electric and the ICE power train terminate in a planetary gear for shifting power around between the two power sources and the wheels. What you're looking for is a series hybrid, like the Chevy Volt. In a series hybrid the only thing the ICE powertrain does is run a generator to keep the battery topped up. This allows the ICE to run in its ideal power band range permanently, reducing its size and making gasoline only travel much more efficient while lowering vehicle cost.
- hundchenkatze 6y ago
  Couldn't Toyota have just created another version of the Prius that operated this way?
  - UI_at_80x24 6y ago
    Or as an add-on trailer. Tow your own generator.
    - bigredhdl 6y ago
      Thats actually a pretty sweet idea. Only take the generator with you when you need it.
      - TeMPOraL 6y ago
        Make them pluggable into the car (vs. towable) and standardize on the interface, and there could be market for renting the generators (like e.g. you do with city bikes - take them from one station, drop off on another).
        allannienhuis 6y ago
        Attach it to the tow hitch framework like a bike rack. :) I suspect that would really mess with the load dynamics on most passenger type cars, as the generator would be pretty heavy. I don't think you'd be able to lift a big enough one into the trunk area, and attaching it to the back of the car would be a pain too. I think towing solves a lot of issues for the idea.

ChuckNorris89 6y ago

>The market in Europe and China is going to flip to pure electric in 5-8 years That's way too optimistic for Europe. Maybe with the exception of Norway and Europe's largest metros like London, most of Europe will stay on ICE for a long time. The price of electric cars here is too high for most incomes and the cheaper ones have too little range compared to ICEs. Not to mention the charging infrastructure is still lacking. Right now they're still toys for the rich man with a house and not tools for the average joe. I'd rather we invest the money in public transport and cycling infrastructure to rid the cities of cars but unfortunately the auto industry lobbies too strong in Europe for that to happen.

scrumbledober 6y ago
I'm also just really not sure the battery capacity will be able to scale that quickly. As it stands we are basically making EVs as fast as we make batteries.
Retric 6y ago
Electric cars are going to become extremely compelling very soon. A 300 mile electric car is close to the same cost as an IC engine over it’s lifespan. But, where IC engines have a hundred years of development and economies of scale electric cars are getting significantly better very quickly. Charge infrastructure is expanding rapidly due to current rates of adoption which further makes electric cars more appealing every year.
- Unklejoe 6y ago
  While electric cars will cost less over their lifespan (due to much less maintenance), they still cost a lot more initially, and I think that's the biggest hurdle right now. A lot of people can't drop $40k on a car, but they can spend $25k up front and another $15k over the life of the car. I think the major changeover will be when I can buy the equivalent of a Honda Accord, but fully electric, and for the same price. The Tesla Model 3 was supposed to be that, but in reality, it still costs more.
  - aianus 6y ago
    Very few people spend $25k up front for a car. They lease it or finance it over 60 or 72 months. Unless you’re referring to the psychological sticker shock only and not the actual cash flow implications.
    - gsnedders 6y ago
      And that ignores the fact that the majority of car sales are not new cars, so the average purchase price of a car is lower still. Even once the majority of new car sales are EVs, we still have a long way to go (with both energy generation and the long period before the majority of miles driven are in EVs).
  - travisporter 6y ago
    Not really in the market for one, but in the US the 2019 Hyundai Ioniq (range of ~120 mi, so not ideal if you don't have a charger at home) is $99/mo with $1000 down for a 3 year lease, which is dirt cheap. I'm guessing after three years the battery will still be valuable, so they can be aggressively pricing it this way. I think if Tesla had better leasing, you'd see way more of them
    - gambiting 6y ago
      I have no idea how the price is so low in the US then, that's insane. We looked at the Ioniq for my wife last year and it was something like £3000 upfront and then £400 a month for 4 years - it's just a lot of money. For comparison, you could have a brand new VW Polo for £1000 upfront and £200 a month - and there's absolutely no way she could use £200 worth of fuel every month, even if petrol doubled in price.
sergiosgc 6y ago
Numbers for Portugal: In the last quarter of 2019, EVs (pure+hybrid) accounted for 4.6% of new vehicle sales, an 80% YoY increase. At these growth rates and start point, the 5-8 year estimate looks sound.
- mkl 6y ago
  Is there reason to expect exponential growth? Seems a bit doubtful to me. What was the YoY increase for other recent years? With linear growth, you'd be looking at 37 years with these growth rates and start point.
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    It caps out at 100%, so of course it's not going to be exponential growth. It is likely to be a logistic curve though, and we are still in the roughly exponential leftmost portion of it. Once there's mid-double-digit market penetration it's going to slow down a lot to roughly linear, then eventually, asymptotic.
    - mkl 6y ago
      Yes, that's more what I'm picturing. That asymptotic phase makes 5-8 years seem unlikely unless a legal obstacle is introduced.
  - NeutronStar 6y ago
    Why wouldn't it be exponential? Most of these processes follow an S curve which is exponential.
  - maxdo 6y ago
    several battery breakthroughs that will dump the cost way bellow the holy grail of car batteries of $100/kwh that makes them on pair with ICE cars. Some estimates predict that they will go way bellow $80 in 2021-22, Means end of 2022 beginning of 2023 will be flooded with even cheaper comparing to Model 3 cars with better quality batteries. Good quality $25-30k electric car will be a new reality. Those segments attack bestsellers like Toyota Camry etc... I'm pretty sure the price war will push them even lower within 1-2 years. Means full line of EV's from very cheap to luxury by 2024-25 on a scale from multiple companies. As a result we will have cars on the market that cost the same, perform better, and cheaper in a lifetime from service and fuel perspective. Millennials and GenZ also very eco-friendly, which means younger people are eager to buy EV's. The only delay could be new battery terra-factories rollout lag. That might give an extra 1-3 years lifetime for ICE. After that the traditional car market will be shaking as never before.
ForHackernews 6y ago
Delivery vehicle fleets are going to go all-electric fast once the economics of operating them dictate it.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
gambiting 6y ago
Still no one can answer the question of where do you charge one if you rent an apartment with no parking or a terraced house with no driveway. Don't get me wrong, I'm planning to go 100% electric in the next few years, but then we're lucky enough to have a house with a double driveway - I have no idea how it can possibly work for people without dedicated parking.
- mongol 6y ago
  One possibility is swappable batteries. So that there are places you drive, like a gas station, and a robot swaps the battery in a minute.
  - gambiting 6y ago
    Sure, but this simply doesn't exist. It's Sci-Fi at this point. A lot of countries are planning a complete ban on petrol/diesel new cars within 10-20 years, yet there are no such signs of such systems(and I suspect there won't be, since every single manufacturer uses different batteries of different shapes and sizes, in some EVs the batteries are simply not removable without hours of work first). Doing this would require standardization, and seeing as we're still in the early innovation phase, that would practically be suicide for the tech.
    - pmalynin 6y ago
      Tesla built some in California as a test bed
- exhilaration 6y ago
  You'll need cities to do large scale deployments of streetlight chargers like these: https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-chargers-to-streetlights-giving-renters-a-place-to-plug-in/ https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-charge... I don't know if it'll require upgrades to the power grid. You've already got 240v in Europe, so that's only ~10 hours to charge a Tesla. But could it handle thousands of EVs charging simultaneously? If there's any place in the world that can do this it's Europe.
Brakenshire 6y ago
I should probably say in the process of flipping rather than have flipped over that time period, it’s not going to be 100% or 80%, but the s-curve transition will be well underway, and car manufacturers will have their hands full developing the technology.
Jedd 6y ago
> The price of electric cars here is too high for most incomes ... Where is 'here'? Here in Australia the price of pure electric cars is way too high - and not helped by federal government (lack of) subsidies, tariffs, policy preferences for fossil fuel, lack of charging infrastructure, etc. I recently scoped out comparable ICE vs full electric new vehicles, and 'around the same' quality/comfort/range/size we were looking at roughly 3.5x the cost for electric. A 5y cost projection for an ICE that does 4.5 litres / 100 km, even with anticipated (higher) servicing costs, doesn't get us to a compelling proposition.

Imaiomus 6y ago

this one its in late development http://innengine.com/home/ http://innengine.com/home/

jacobush 6y ago
If they don't have a working prototype I can't see how it's in late development.

numpad0 6y ago

The more I learn about electrics and hybrids the Prius PHV starts to make more and more sense... except for that hideous face of ZVW50

ashtonkem 6y ago

The Prius is the wrong kind of hybrid for that, as the Prius is a parallel hybrid; both the electric and the ICE power train terminate in a planetary gear for shifting power around between the two power sources and the wheels. What you're looking for is a series hybrid, like the Chevy Volt. In a series hybrid the only thing the ICE powertrain does is run a generator to keep the battery topped up. This allows the ICE to run in its ideal power band range permanently, reducing its size and making gasoline only travel much more efficient while lowering vehicle cost.

hundchenkatze 6y ago
Couldn't Toyota have just created another version of the Prius that operated this way?
- UI_at_80x24 6y ago
  Or as an add-on trailer. Tow your own generator.
  - bigredhdl 6y ago
    Thats actually a pretty sweet idea. Only take the generator with you when you need it.
    - TeMPOraL 6y ago
      Make them pluggable into the car (vs. towable) and standardize on the interface, and there could be market for renting the generators (like e.g. you do with city bikes - take them from one station, drop off on another).
      - allannienhuis 6y ago
        Attach it to the tow hitch framework like a bike rack. :) I suspect that would really mess with the load dynamics on most passenger type cars, as the generator would be pretty heavy. I don't think you'd be able to lift a big enough one into the trunk area, and attaching it to the back of the car would be a pain too. I think towing solves a lot of issues for the idea.