I guess that's the thing with me and epidemiological models. I think for the bulk of Americans, maybe even people around the world, these models haven't really

I guess that's the thing with me and epidemiological models. I think for the bulk of Americans, maybe even people around the world, these models haven't really entered into everyday life with the ramifications of their accuracy. It's more convincing to know that economics have looked retroactively at past events and ran correlations to partly explain lived experiences. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance as the saying goes, and I"m not sure who actively tracks the next economic declines to continue to test whatever correlation models people have come up with to predict negative side effects on people's lives, but presumably they've landed roughly well enough patterns to predict something reliably, maybe not though. But the more urgent predictions at this point come from epidemiologists. And I wonder have epidemiologists had a good track record at predicting previous outbreaks accurately, say SARS, ebola, whatever, 20th and 21st century stuff? As of today we're two orders of magnitude off from those worst case scenario of millions of deaths in the US I thought were surely coming. I guess another question is how long were these millions of deaths expected to arrive, in 12 months, 18 months? That's a good point, how fragile or robust should an economy be expected to be to wait things out. The fact that lots of companies operate off debt probably doesn't bode well for them weathering any significant storm. Can't build a house on sand and expect it to stand as the saying goes.