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Well, her prediction is pretty close for conventional oil: https://www.postcarbon.org/new-u-s-record-level-oil-production-peak-oil-theory-disproven-not/ https:/

Well, her prediction is pretty close for conventional oil: https://www.postcarbon.org/new-u-s-record-level-oil-production-peak-oil-theory-disproven-not/ https://www.postcarbon.org/new-u-s-record-level-oil-producti... How sustainable the production of non conventional oil is, has to be seen, taking into account: costs of production and ROEI. "And predictions from the Peak Oil crowd from 15 years ago about what would happen in 15 years were mostly wrong." I am not sure about this either. The limits of growth projected the problems into the 1st half of the 21th century. This would end 2050, in 30 years. The questions is: Are the roller coaster oil prices and negative interest rates we are seeing the pre-curser of problems ahead or just a funny coincidence? "My personal take: after the 1960s, people basically stopped inventing more energy-intensive goods and services that could achieve mass market adoption." This is wrong. Most people would like a flying car or a trip to the moon. Bitcoin consumes energy too. This may be an overstatement: By 2040, computers will need more electricity than the world can generate https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/07/25/semiconductor_industry_association_international_technology_roadmap_for_semiconductors/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/07/25/semiconductor_indus... Please also consider jevons Paradox. A more efficient use of resources leads to faster depletion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox "We are encountering the per capita "limits to growth" in highly developed nations but the limits showed up on the demand side before the supply side" I doubt that either. In this book scientists explain there most dangerous ideas: https://www.amazon.com/What-Your-Dangerous-Idea-Unthinkable/dp/0061214957 https://www.amazon.com/What-Your-Dangerous-Idea-Unthinkable/... One idea was: Purpose of live is energy dissipation. Consequently, I remember a scientist saying, in what to look for in extraterrestrial live: Look for an entropy source.

philipkglass 6y ago
She wasn't just predicting conventional oil declines. In her 2007 posts she explicitly considers and rejects the adequacy of unconventional oil sources (Canadian oil sands, American shale) to prevent oil from peaking imminently [1]. Most people would like a flying car or a trip to the moon. That's possible. But the technology to offer those to the mass market hasn't been invented! If the only problem with flying cars was that they burned a lot of fuel, millions of high-income people would be flying around in them today. I'm not saying that we can never invent more energy-intensive devices that reach the mass market. But I have observed that nothing like this has reached the mass market in 50 years. I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for routine Moon vacations or flying cars. I find that the Jevons paradox is cited more often in online discussions than it is understood. The Jevons paradox can be considered a special case of the energy rebound effect. Energy rebound is the tendency of people to use more of an energy service when that energy service can be supplied more efficiently. For example, replacing incandescent light bulbs with LED light bulbs saves energy, but some of that energy savings is negated if people also install brighter bulbs when they switch from incandescent to LED. The Jevons paradox is the unusual case where the rebound effect is greater than 100% -- like somebody installing 20 new LED lights for every incandescent they replace. It's remarkable enough to get its own named paradox because it is a surprising, rare situation. The far more common case is that energy saving technology really does save net energy, without inducing enough new demand for a 100%+ rebound. [1] Is This a False Alarm? https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/16/is-this-a-false-alarm/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/16/is-this-a-false-alarm/
- nickik 6y ago
  Arguing with the Peak-Resource crowed is beyond pointless. These people have not except basic economic arguments for 200 years, and every 15 years they come up with a new crisis that gone happen in the next 15-20 years. The was a lot of Peak-Coal talk in 1800 Britain as well. Now they seem to have moved on to 'rare' earths (that aren't that actually rare). They always excuse every individual wrong prediction with 'well this factor we couldn't predict and nobody could have' so we were right. No matter that that does not make sense and is exactly the point the other side makes. The Club of Rome and the 'Population Bomb' are some of the most mainstream example. The author of the 'Population Bomb' was often on mainstream TV. The 'Populationbomb' crowed for example wanted limit growth of population in India, and wanted to US government not to trade with them or help them with agriculture. Their logic was that millions were gone die anyway, not helping them might kill them sooner and that will limit growth, much more humane. There is a long history of that thinking. The Club of Rome of course hilariously came back back and said 'we were actually right, juts off by multiple 100%'. Great, thanks guys, I'm defiantly gone listen to you now. People who think in zero sum games will never understand how a non-zero sum game works. These are the most dangerous people in the world. The earth is not threatens by limited resource, but rather people who believe resources are limited. The biggest catastrophes of the modern happened because of people who believed in zero sum games. Even if Jevons paradox were always true, there is no issue with growing energy use for the next couple 100 years, or even couple 1000s. There are plenty of energy sources around. As long as we have energy, food is not an issue either.

philipkglass 6y ago

She wasn't just predicting conventional oil declines. In her 2007 posts she explicitly considers and rejects the adequacy of unconventional oil sources (Canadian oil sands, American shale) to prevent oil from peaking imminently [1]. Most people would like a flying car or a trip to the moon. That's possible. But the technology to offer those to the mass market hasn't been invented! If the only problem with flying cars was that they burned a lot of fuel, millions of high-income people would be flying around in them today. I'm not saying that we can never invent more energy-intensive devices that reach the mass market. But I have observed that nothing like this has reached the mass market in 50 years. I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for routine Moon vacations or flying cars. I find that the Jevons paradox is cited more often in online discussions than it is understood. The Jevons paradox can be considered a special case of the energy rebound effect. Energy rebound is the tendency of people to use more of an energy service when that energy service can be supplied more efficiently. For example, replacing incandescent light bulbs with LED light bulbs saves energy, but some of that energy savings is negated if people also install brighter bulbs when they switch from incandescent to LED. The Jevons paradox is the unusual case where the rebound effect is greater than 100% -- like somebody installing 20 new LED lights for every incandescent they replace. It's remarkable enough to get its own named paradox because it is a surprising, rare situation. The far more common case is that energy saving technology really does save net energy, without inducing enough new demand for a 100%+ rebound. [1] Is This a False Alarm? https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/16/is-this-a-false-alarm/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/16/is-this-a-false-alarm/

nickik 6y ago
Arguing with the Peak-Resource crowed is beyond pointless. These people have not except basic economic arguments for 200 years, and every 15 years they come up with a new crisis that gone happen in the next 15-20 years. The was a lot of Peak-Coal talk in 1800 Britain as well. Now they seem to have moved on to 'rare' earths (that aren't that actually rare). They always excuse every individual wrong prediction with 'well this factor we couldn't predict and nobody could have' so we were right. No matter that that does not make sense and is exactly the point the other side makes. The Club of Rome and the 'Population Bomb' are some of the most mainstream example. The author of the 'Population Bomb' was often on mainstream TV. The 'Populationbomb' crowed for example wanted limit growth of population in India, and wanted to US government not to trade with them or help them with agriculture. Their logic was that millions were gone die anyway, not helping them might kill them sooner and that will limit growth, much more humane. There is a long history of that thinking. The Club of Rome of course hilariously came back back and said 'we were actually right, juts off by multiple 100%'. Great, thanks guys, I'm defiantly gone listen to you now. People who think in zero sum games will never understand how a non-zero sum game works. These are the most dangerous people in the world. The earth is not threatens by limited resource, but rather people who believe resources are limited. The biggest catastrophes of the modern happened because of people who believed in zero sum games. Even if Jevons paradox were always true, there is no issue with growing energy use for the next couple 100 years, or even couple 1000s. There are plenty of energy sources around. As long as we have energy, food is not an issue either.